Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Friday’s slate comes up one short, as the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics enjoy an off day before they meet for a pair over the weekend in Oakland. The action starts at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Miami Marlins. Both teams were rumored to have hitters on the block, but their lineups remained largely intact. Even so, Cubs southpaw Justin Steele (6% rostered in ESPN leagues) checks in as a streamer on a day where there aren’t many enticing options. Steele fans about a batter an innings and has done a good job keeping the ball in the yard. Issuing walks has been his problem, but the Marlins are, by far, the least patient team in the league with a lefty on the hill.
Granted, stolen bases are more important to rotisserie scoring than points formats. However, they’re crucial in some formats, so it’s worth mentioning Luke Williams and his production since July 1. Williams qualifies at third as well as outfield and is available in almost every ESPN league. Since July 1, he has posted a solid .306/.375/.444 with six bags in seven attempts. His 10% walk rate helps make up for less power in points leagues. With Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia both sidelined, Williams should continue to play a lot and should continue to run.
Kyle Gibson (57% rostered) is likely rostered in deeper leagues, but he could be available in standard ESPN 10-team leagues for his matchup with the new-look Washington Nationals in Citizens Bank Park. The Baltimore Orioles’ Dean Kremer has a favorable home matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates were also quiet at the deadline, but they did DFA Yoshi Tsutsugo so they can look at some of their younger players. The Boston Red Sox will probably hand the ball to Josh Winckowski for their road tilt in Kansas City against a Royals offense with the fourth-lowest wOBA in the league with a righty on the hill.
Tony Gonsolin’s 2.41 ERA and 0.90 WHIP are clearly better than even the rosiest expectations. While it’s true a 16.9% K-BB mark is pedestrian and he has benefited from a .208 BABIP and 83.5% left on base level, his xFIP is 3.78 while his SIERA is 3.75. These are well below average, meriting a roster spot in all formats. That said, Gonsolin has struggled over his last three outings, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, albeit with 16 strikeouts and only five walks in this 16 frames. Still, keeping Gonsolin on reserve for Friday’s encounter with the revamped San Diego Padres lineup is the safe play, especially for those embattled in a tight race with ratios.
Friday night will feature a pair of teammates from the 2015 World Champion Royals squaring off when Eric Hosmer (48%) steps in the box against Zack Greinke. Boston pruned its roster with Jackie Bradley’s DFA and sending Franchy Cordero to Triple-A Worcester. More than anything, this indicates a commitment to Jarren Duran (5%), despite recent struggles, as well as assuring plenty of playing time for Hosmer and Tommy Pham (49%), another recent Red Sox addition. One final Red Sox note: Tanner Houck (38%) won’t collect all the saves, but he garnered a pair earlier in the week and should compile the most of any Boston reliever over the final two months.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 6%) vs. Winckowski
Isaac Paredes (TB, 2B — 19%) at Chi Chi Gonzalez
MJ Melendez (KC, C — 13%) vs. Winckowski
Josh Rojas (ARI, SS — 50%) vs. German Marquez
Bobby Dalbec (BOS, 1B — 8%) at Zack Greinke
Alek Thomas (ARI, CF — 7%) vs. Marquez
Christian Arroyo (BOS, 2B — 0%) at Greinke
Carlos Santana (SEA, 1B — 45%) vs. Patrick Sandoval
Hunter Dozier (KC, RF — 17%) vs. Winckowski
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 73%) at Robbie Ray
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 86%) vs. Dylan Cease
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 52%) vs. Cease
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 74%) vs. Patrick Sandoval
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 54%) vs. Framber Valdez
Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 54%) vs. Cease
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 91%) vs. Sean Manaea
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 62%) vs. Ian Anderson
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 71%) vs. Manaea
Jesse Winker (SEA, LF — 78%) vs. Sandoval
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.