Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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After an abbreviated Thursday schedule, everyone is in action on the first Friday out of the break except the Twins and Tigers. All 14 games will be under the lights, beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET with Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals visiting Graham Ashcraft and the Cincinnati Reds. Ashcraft starting with Tyler Mahle due back Sunday suggests the Reds will go with a six-man rotation, at least until Luis Castillo is traded. Ashcraft doesn’t fan many, but he doesn’t walk many either. Being around the plate renders the Cardinals Dylan Carlson (56% rostered in ESPN leagues), Brendan Donovan (21%), Nolan Gorman (18%) and Corey Dickerson (1%) all in play as hitters to stream.
With most teams resetting their rotations to feature their better arms out of the gate (except those working in the All-Star game), the supply of streamers is limited, but there are a few candidates, with two squaring off in Oakland as Spencer Howard (<1%) takes the hill for the Rangers against the Athletics Cole Irvin (12%). Despite facing a lineup quietly productive facing southpaws, Irvin is ranked several spots ahead of Howard. Howard’s allure is drawing worst offense when a righthander is on the hill.
Justin Steele (6%) and Braxton Garrett (4%) check in as viable streamers with both in a favorable spot. Steele has quietly posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over his last seven starts. His last two efforts have been quality starts and now he’ll face a Phillies lineup which has struggled against lefthanders for the past month. Garrett is also on a roll, having racked up 10 punch outs at home against the Pirates in his last outing before the break. Friday will be a rematch, this time in the Steel City, but against the same offense with the second highest strikeout rake in the league when a righty toes the rubber.
Lucas Giolito was one of the first half’s biggest disappointments as he was drafted in the tier just below the aces. He’s pitched better lately, but he’s done so with a low strikeout rate, having fanned 32 in the 35 frames heading into the break. On Friday, Giolito opens the second half at home against a Guardians lineup fanning only 17.7% of the time against righthanders. He may record a solid outing, but don’t expect a plethora of punch outs, dropping his appeal in DFS as well a good bet for the under regarding his strikeout total.
The Marlins and Diamondbacks weren’t supposed to be juggernauts, but both offenses underproduced through the break. Expect both to be more potent the rest of the season. The Miami bats to track include Avisail Garcia (40%), Jesus Aguilar (34%), Garrett Cooper (19%), Jesus Sanchez (12%), Joey Wendle (12%) and Miguel Rojas (5%). The Arizona batters likely to pick up the pace are Josh Rojas (47%), David Peralta (14%), Carson Kelly (10%) and Jordan Luplow (<1%).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 9%) vs. Drew Rasmussen
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 50%) at Zack Greinke
Danny Jansen (TOR, C — 5%) at Nathan Eovaldi
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 46%) at Lucas Giolito
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 45%) vs. Antonio Senzatela
Kevin Newman (PIT, SS — 0%) vs. Braxton Garrett
Tyler Naquin (CIN, CF — 4%) vs. Adam Wainwright
Miguel Rojas (MIA, SS — 5%) at Jose Quintana
Isaac Paredes (TB, 2B — 31%) at Greinke
Edward Olivares (KC, RF — 1%) vs. Rasmussen
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 57%) at Corbin Burnes
Connor Joe (COL, LF — 60%) at Burnes
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 78%) at Charlie Morton
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 70%) at Burnes
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 63%) vs. Shohei Ohtani
C.J. Cron (COL, 1B — 97%) at Burnes
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 79%) vs. Ohtani
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 60%) vs. Cristian Javier
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 96%) vs. Ohtani
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 94%) at Burnes