Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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We have bonus baseball on Friday, with the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals playing the first of two, starting at 1:05 PM ET in the nation’s capital. As always, targeting hitters and closers from doubleheaders increases the chances for fantasy production. With Corey Knebel at least temporarily relieved of the Phillies closing duties, Seranthony Dominguez (5% rostered in ESPN leagues) is expected to lead a committee. Tanner Rainey (12%) is the Nationals closer and is also in play.
As for the batters to target in the twin bill, the Nationals are slated to start lefty Evan Lee and righty Paulo Espino. Meanwhile, the Phillies are scheduled to start a pair of southpaws in Ranger Suarez and Bailey Falter. Neither Lee nor Espino are daunting, so available Philadelphia hitters are in play. However, while it’s not guaranteed they’ll play both ends, Cesar Hernandez (12%), Lane Thomas (9%) and Maikel Franco (6%) all have the opportunity for extra at bats with the platoon edge.
The slate’s most intriguing pitching matchup is in Rogers Centre with Jordan Montgomery taking the ball for the New York Yankees, to be opposed by Ross Stripling for the host Toronto Blue Jays. Stripling has pitched well in two starts since replacing Hyun-Jin Ryu in the Blue Jays rotation, albeit against the lesser Tigers and Royals lineups. Even with good pitchers on the hill, both offenses can put up multiple innings of crooked numbers, so don’t hesitate to deploy either lineup in a DFS stack in what could be a slugfest. Starting Montgomery in traditional fantasy is a risk, so consider benching him if you’re ratios are vulnerable.
Three pitchers who aren’t as risky are Michael Lorenzen (39%), Devin Smeltzer (17%) and Hunter Greene (5%) as the trio are the slate’s top streaming candidates. Jon Gray (55%) is barely over the 50% rostership cutoff so his availability merits a look. Lorenzen’s road date in Seattle isn’t ideal, but he’s complied seven quality starts in ten outings, and the innings are an integral component of ESPN points league scoring. Smeltzer faces an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup with the third lowest wOBA against southpaws while Greene is home against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup with the ninth highest strikeout rate facing righthanders.
Friday offers a Coors Field game to tandem with the doubleheader as targets for batters in favorable scenarios. Some standalone options include the Diamondbacks’ Alek Thomas (12%) and Josh Rojas (39%) both enjoying the platoon edge on Dylan Bundy, the Braves Michael Harris II (19%) facing Keegan Thompson and the Rays’ Ji-Man Choi (9%) stepping in against Dean Kremer.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Odubel Herrera (PHI, CF — 1%) at Evan Lee and Paolo Espino
Bryson Stott (PHI, SS — 9%) vs. Ranger Suarez and Bailey Falter
Didi Gregorius (PHI, SS — 4%) at Lee and Espino
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 29%) at Kyle Freeland
Luis Garcia (WSH, 2B — 4%) vs. Suarez and Falter
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 10%) at Freeland
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 46%) vs. Eric Lauer
Yoan Moncada (CHW, 3B — 50%) at Framber Valdez
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 90%) at Robbie Ray
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B — 51%) at Clayton Kershaw
Salvador Perez (KC, C — 97%) at Frankie Montas
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 94%) at Montas
Frank Schwindel (CHC, 1B — 56%) vs. Charlie Morton
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 50%) vs. Jon Gray
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 84%) vs. Morton
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 63%) vs. Greinke
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 71%) vs. Pablo Lopez