Fantasy baseball: LABR AL-only salary cap draft recap
OK, OK, we all make mistakes. Buxton’s acquisition was one misstep from my League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) AL-only salary cap draft that I’d love to take back. I was otherwise pleased with my results, rostering a strong base of elite, per-game performers while assembling one of my favorite pitching staffs in any of my now-20 seasons participating in LABR.
(If you wish to skip ahead to the full roster, it’s at the bottom of the page.)
Buxton? Not so much. Yes, he fits my desired risk/reward profile, averaging 36 homers, 74 RBIs, 12 steals and 88 runs per 162 games while he was on the Minnesota Twins’ active roster over the last three seasons, but he also batted a ghastly .216 while missing 42% of the team’s games during that time. The idea wasn’t to take a player with that steep a downside, though in the moment, he seemed to make sense.
The most pertinent lesson, a reminder of a point stressed in Inning 3 of my Playbook, is to never let yourself get rattled. Preparation is the “A-number-one” ingredient to salary-cap drafting success, but focus throughout is a close No. 2. Missteps can be patched with strong, subsequent acquisitions. Avoid having them turn into catastrophic, wrong-turn moments that unravel the rest of your team.
Getting a pair of nicely priced catchers, Connor Wong ($5, 13 nominations later) and Austin Wells ($8, 34 nominations after Wong), along with cheap, prospective steals in Ceddanne Rafaela ($7) and a pair of starting pitching targets in Reid Detmers ($8) and Tanner Houck ($4), helped to keep my plan on track.
Next up are just a couple of extra lessons you can bring to your own drafts.
LABR has an old-school, original-rotisserie rule requiring that players that you roster during the salary cap portion of the draft — as well as those acquired as free agents in-season — must remain in your active weekly lineup or be subject to outright release, unless they are deactivated by their real-life team (generally by means of a trip to the IL placement or demotion to the minors) at which point you can then send them to your bench. Only players selected in the original six-round reserve draft, which follows immediately after the salary-cap portion, may be freely moved between your bench and lineup every week.
This demands a certain strategy in the draft’s “end game” as pitchers prone to terrible outings and all-or-nothing hitters, both of which can have a catastrophic impact on your team’s fortunes during said slumps, need careful consideration as far as when to select them. Alek Manoah, who went from finishing third in AL Cy Young Award balloting in 2022 to seeing his ERA rise by more than 3.5 runs in 2023, is an excellent such example. He was the No. 1 pick in the reserve draft and, along with Casey Mize (who went second), would have been my top targets with my first reserve pick (No. 3 overall). However, anyone in a league that freely allowed lineup changes might have been willing to speculate on them for as much as $5.
Kyle Bradish ($6) and Matt Brash ($3) also make a bit more sense considering this rule, despite their likely IL status to begin the regular season. Bradish and Brash, when healthy, are more likely to avoid the devastating numbers Manoah might deliver. By stashing them on the IL and waiting out their better days ahead, their spots can be freed up for matchups streaming opportunities, from a reserve-draft group that includes Jose Urquidy, Ross Stripling, Luis Medina and Zach Plesac.
The excitement surrounding top prospects and perhaps AL Rookie of the Year favorites, Jackson Holliday and Wyatt Langford, was evident during the LABR draft, with the Baltimore Orioles’ prospective second baseman going for $15, and the Texas Rangers’ potential left fielder fetching a $16 bid. They weren’t the only first-year players who generated heightened enthusiasm, as the Detroit Tigers’ Colt Keith ($9), Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero ($7), Orioles’ Coby Mayo ($5) and Cleveland Guardians’ Kyle Manzardo ($4) also went for notable prices.
Keith, whom I nominated, was my acquisition after his price stalled in the single digits. Though his power upside might be somewhat shy of Caminero’s, I should enjoy Keith’s 65-grade power with the chance at a 25-HR rookie campaign as the Tigers expect him to be their everyday second baseman. Caminero, who could be a 30-HR source right away, isn’t as certain to begin the year with the Rays.
Those who have read my work for any length of time are probably familiar with my advice to “plant your flag” with specific prospects. Keith was mine in this draft. Study the pool as deeply as you can, make decided calls as far as your expectations from each rookie, and pounce on those only if the price does not get out of hand.
Yandy Diaz, $19: He earned $28 in this format in 2023, is one of the highest-floor first basemen, and is almost universally projected for at least a .290 batting average, 18 HR, 70 RBIs and 80 runs scored.
Justin Turner, $11: I bottled up my first base, corner infield and utility spots relatively early, preventing my pursuit at this “consistency king” who has hit .276-plus with 81-plus RBIs in each of the last three seasons.
Kerry Carpenter, $13: He’s an underrated power source who hit .287/.353/.464 with 12 homers over 71 second-half games and should be the cleanup hitter for an up-and-coming Tigers lineup.
Shane Bieber, $13: After a winter visit to Driveline, Bieber has been exhibiting elevated fastball velocity so far this spring. He’s a decent bet for a rebound, and bear in mind that he hasn’t had an ERA higher than 3.80 in any of the last five years, as is.
Clay Holmes, $16: Considering the heightened prices of closers in this year’s LABR draft — six cost at least $18 and the top three averaged $22 — Holmes, one of the strongest candidates for 25-plus saves and 75-plus K’s, was a great selection.
The concept of “shadow drafting,” a longtime salary cap draft practice in which a non-participating manager follows along with the selections and “selects” a team, by adding one dollar to the final bid each time a desired player is picked, has always fascinated me.
In order to provide additional insight to my own player selections, while also accounting for the fact that unexpected and unavoidable things occur during salary cap drafts, I’ve decided to both list the original team that I selected, as well as potential “shadow draft” replacements for those where I felt at another stage that there was a more desirable pick.
These shadow-draft picks are listed in parentheses and italics.
Catchers: Connor Wong $5 (Carson Kelly $2), Austin Wells $8
Infielders: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $32 (Yandy Diaz $19), Nicky Lopez $1, Corey Seager $29, Colt Keith $9, Anthony Volpe $22, Spencer Torkelson $19 (Maikel Garcia $18)
Outfielders: Steven Kwan $16, Trent Grisham $3, Ceddanne Rafaela $7, Dominic Fletcher $3 (Yordan Alvarez $37), Jonny DeLuca $1, Byron Buxton $12 (Harold Ramirez $2)
Pitchers: Pete Fairbanks $18, Kyle Bradish $6 (Casey Mize $1), George Kirby $27, Matt Brash $3 (Yennier Cano $4), Grayson Rodriguez $21 (Ryan Pepiot $12), Reid Detmers $8 (Shane Bieber $14),Chris Martin $4, JP Sears $2, Tanner Houck $4
Reserves: Gio Urshela, Jose Urquidy, Ross Stripling, Will Brennan, Luis Medina, Zach Plesac
Note: To see all LABR-AL rosters, head here.