Fantasy Baseball: Forecaster for the Seoul Series
The 2024 Major League Baseball season begins with two games between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea, on Wednesday and Thursday. Both games have a scheduled 6:05 a.m. ET first pitch, so set your alarms, grab some coffee, and call in late for work. Both games will be broadcast on ESPN, giving you the chance to watch your players as they finally begin accumulating actual stats that count for your fantasy teams.
First up, for ESPN fantasy baseball bookkeeping purposes, know that these games, along with the extended four-day “weekend” from Thursday, March 28, through Sunday, March 31, which begins the 2024 season in the States, constitutes fantasy’s Week 1. That’s especially important in head-to-head leagues, where matchups will span the two games in Seoul as well as those played during those latter four days.
In the event that you draft a team following these games in South Korea, any Dodgers and Padres that you select will immediately lock into their assigned roster spots at the time you select them, and their statistics in these games will be credited retroactively. You will not be able to change their status for those games. However, if your league allows daily transactions, as our standard formats do, then you will still be able to change the status of your Dodgers or Padres for any yet-to-be-played games from March 28-31. Plan accordingly.
Wednesday’s game is a matchup between the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow and Padres’ Yu Darvish, pitchers who dealt with injuries at times in 2023 but were generally excellent during Cactus League play this preseason.
Thursday’s game pits the Padres’ Joe Musgrove against the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will be making his MLB debut. Neither pitcher had stellar ratios during spring training — Musgrove’s ERA was 13.50 in three starts, Yamamoto’s 8.38 in three — but Musgrove did pitch more effectively in his final tuneup on March 13. Meanwhile, Yamamoto’s raw stuff looked filthy all spring, leading to his striking out 14 of the 47 hitters he faced overall.
All four pitchers were selected, on average, among the top-50 starting pitchers in ESPN leagues this preseason, meaning all should be “automatics” for your lineup. Musgrove is the closest to being an iffy fantasy start, and even he earns a near-10-point projection.
Pitchers are listed along with their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.
The Padres are considered to be the home team on Wednesday, with the Dodgers designated as home on Thursday. Both games will be played at the Gocheok SkyDome which, by many accounts, is a slightly hitter-friendly venue most beneficial for home runs.
It is a symmetrical field, measuring 325 feet down the left- and right-field lines, 355 feet to left and right fields, 380 feet to the power alleys and 400 feet to center field, with all of those measurements generally 4-8 feet shorter than are the MLB averages for ballparks. It also has an artificial turf surface. For the purposes of our projections, I’ve estimated the SkyDome as inflating runs by roughly 3%, home runs by 8%, hits overall by 1%, and doubles and triples by 2%.
The 2024 fantasy baseball season is here! Get the group together, or start a brand new tradition.
Join or start a league for free >>
This is not enough of a hitting boost that should scare fantasy managers away from starters Glasnow, Yamamoto, Darvish or Musgrove, but it should ease any worries you might have about starting on-the-fence Dodgers or Padres hitters, knowing they’ll be facing elite pitching in these games.
As all four starting pitchers are right-handed, expect both teams to lean most heavily upon the left-handed partners from their projected platoons: The Dodgers will presumably start James Outman in center field, Jason Heyward in right field and Gavin Lux at second base in both games, though Chris Taylor could sneak in a start at either of the latter two spots. The Padres will probably use Jackson Merrill in center field for both games, while left-handed Graham Pauley might well start one or both games at third base ahead of either Eguy Rosario or Tyler Wade. Manny Machado will serve as the DH for these games as he works his way back to full strength following October elbow surgery.
Outman and Merrill present as the most advantageous hitting streamers as a result. Outman was a .247/.351/.484 hitter — including 22 of his 23 total home runs against right-handers last season — and is coming off a scorching spring training. He finds himself available in over two-thirds of ESPN leagues. Merrill, who made the Padres’ roster on the heels of a .351/.400/.595 (40 plate appearances) spring, brings a power/speed combination that rotisserie managers should love. He is available in more than 85% of ESPN leagues.
The Dodgers are favored to win both games — and heavily so, by our projections — and, considering the raw stuff of both of their starters, coupled with the past health questions of their opponent’s duo, Glasnow and Yamamoto could be the fantasy stars of these two contests. Yamamoto is particularly attractive as a fantasy play, thanks to his advantageous matchup against Musgrove. Thursday’s game also appears to be the stronger betting opportunity, if you’re taking the favorite.
Saves seekers should be aware that Robert Suarez finished off the Padres’ 1-0 victory on Sunday against the South Korean national team, pitching a mostly effective ninth inning, while Woo Suk Go notched the save in the team’s second such exhibition, though he served up two runs while doing so. All indications are that Suarez, available in more than 80% of ESPN leagues, will serve as the Padres’ closer to begin 2024.