Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday
Overall, it’s a solid slate for streaming hitters and deep but risky for pitchers so you should be able to find suitable replacements for players on the aforementioned six clubs. Here are some recommendations, each available in at least half of all ESPN leagues.
Randy Dobnak (R), rostered in 2% of ESPN leagues, Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles: Dobnak has posted a pair of six inning efforts since joining the Twins rotation. However, he was charged with six earned runs last time out against the Royals. Still, he draws the top spot facing the fourth lowest scoring team in the league.
Madison Bumgarner (L), 49%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: The Mets are beginning to get some of their regulars back with Pete Alonso and Kevin Pillar off the IL. Even so, Bumgarner has a good chance to snap a personal three-game losing streak. For the season, his 5.15 ERA is anywhere between half or a full run higher than the various estimators. The Mets are the third lowest scoring team in the league and will tote a below average facing lefties into the desert.
Adbert Alzolay (R), 29%, Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: The previous two options were favored by facing less potent offenses. The next three are all risks against potentially dangerous lineups. If you are feeling skittish, a look ahead shows a busier than normal Thursday schedule with some solid options so don’t feel pressured to force a spot starter into your Wednesday lineup. With that said, Alzolay’s 21.1% K-BB% is 21st among qualified starters, helping him surrender three or fewer runs in eight outings since a rough first start.
Shane McClanahan (L), 24%, Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees: Targeting a perceived cold team can be a recipe for disaster, especially in a home run friendly venue. When the intended victim is the Yankees at home, the call is quite precarious. On the other hand, Tampa usually doesn’t hang their pitchers out to dry and McClanahan has been impressive. The rookie has fanned 32 in 27 1/3 stanzas with only seven walks issued and three homers allowed.
Spencer Howard (R), 4%, Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: Howard hasn’t been nearly as impressive as McClanahan and the Reds are the perfect example of a team coming out of a slump so consider this more of a desperate than sage choice and Wednesday is probably too early to make an emergency decision. That said, Howard has fanned 17 in nine frames, albeit with seven free passes. Prior to plating 11 on Memorial Day, the Reds were averaging 2.75 runs over their prior eight contests.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — James McCann (R), 30%, New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (LHP Madison Bumgarner): A little over a week ago, McCann was leaking playing time to Tomas Nido. Injuries forced McCann to grab a first baseman’s mitt and he concurrently picked it up at the dish, slashing 273/.333/.636 the past week. The hot streak has resulted in McCann returning to regular action behind the plate. He typically handles southpaw pitching well and enjoys the platoon bump on Wednesday.
First Base — Christian Walker (R), 35%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets (LHP David Peterson): It’s been a disappointing start to the 2021 campaign for Walker. Just as he was beginning to find his stroke, he needed a second stint on the IL for an oblique injury. He’s been quiet since returning, but there are indications he could revert to 2020 form as he’s not fanning and beginning to increase exit velocity.
Second Base — Ty France (R), 30%, Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea): France has slashed .345/.387/.414 since returning from the IL with swelling in his left wrist. Hot streaks unto themselves aren’t always telling, but a low 16% strikeout rate during this stretch suggests France is comfortable and seeing the ball well. Since debuting in 2019, France has slugged half of his 14 homers against lefty pitching despite a bit fewer than half of his plate appearances coming with the platoon edge.
Third Base — Brad Miller (L), 18%, Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Vladimir Gutierrez): There aren’t many venues offering a power upgrade over Citizens Bank Park with the Great American Ballpark one of the few. Miller’s early season power spike is fueled by a 95-mph average exit velocity on fly balls, well above the league average level.
Shortstop — Freddy Galvis (S), 31%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Randy Dobnak): Galvis is another hitter with a notable average exit velocity on fly balls as his 93-mph mark is a personal high, putting him on pace to set a new career best home run total, eclipsing the 27 he hit in 2019. With the weather warming in Camden Yards, Galvis has an excellent shot of doing just that.
Corner Infield — Rowdy Tellez (L), 4%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez): Keep in mind the Jays are now playing home games at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, where winds blowing across the diamond from right field should render the venue far less hitter-friendly that their temporary home in Dunedin. Even so, Toronto’s lineup should prosper facing one of the weakest arms on the card with Tellez being of the only readily available options.
Middle Infield — Brendan Rodgers (R), 7%, Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles): Admittedly, players enjoying the platoon edge comprise the majority of hitters selected for streaming. What may get lost is quality of matchup is still just as important, with the objective being checking both boxes. Sometimes, the matchup prevails on its own, especially in Coors Field. Rodgers is earmarked for an extended look with Trevor Story out and with the Rockies home all week, this is more than a one-off suggestion.
Outfield — Willie Calhoun (L), 20%, Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela): Calhoun is an example of checking all the boxes as he gets a favorable matchup with the platoon advantage in one of the best places to reward his above average fly ball percent rate.
Outfield — Adam Eaton (L), 26%, Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (RHP Eli Morgan): Most of Eaton’s underlying metrics are on par or better than previous seasons except contact rate. He was striking out a lot less before missing four games last week with a hamstring injury. He’s back and it shouldn’t be long before he reverts to form, where batting second in a potent lineup reaps benefits.
Outfield — Rob Refsnyder (R), 10%, Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (LHP Kris Bubic): Assuming Refsnyder can cease running head on into walls, he can get back to hitting balls over them. The veteran has slashed .320/.364/.500 while manning the righthanded side of a center field platoon while Byron Buxton convalesces on the IL. Bubic has only allowed one long ball all season, but he’s been buoyed by a fortunate 3.6% home run per fly ball mark.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.