Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday

As always, what we’re concerned with is arms and bats to stream. All 30 teams are in action, but injured players could require a replacement. Here are the options to get you over the hump, everyone available in at least half of all ESPN leagues

Logan Gilbert (R), rostered in 31% of ESPN leagues, Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: Often, rookie jitters manifest in spotty control resulting in too many walks. Gilbert’s debut was checkered with the opposite as he had no issue throwing strikes; he just located too many as middle-middle. The 24-year-old righthander exhibited plus command in the minors, so the expectation is he goes back to working the edges and not leaving his four-seamer center cut this time around. A home date with the Tigers is the idea foil for the rookie to gain some confidence.

Rich Hill (L), 22%, Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: After allowing four runs in each of his first three outings, Hill has seen only two cross the plate since, both in his fourth game as he hasn’t been scored upon in his last three efforts. Further, he’s pitched six frames four times in eight appearances after doing it just once in eight games last season.

Garrett Richards (R), 18%, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays will be a great litmus test for the rejuvenated Red Sox rotation and especially Richards. The righty has combined a quicker pace between pitches with a more deliberate delivery to fuel a four-game stretch where he’s 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, featuring 26 punchouts to only five walks in 25 frames.

Tarik Skubal (L), 5%, Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners: OK, this is going to be a hard sell as Skubal is 0-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 33 innings, spanning eight appearances, six of which were starts. However, he’s fanned 13 with just three free passes over his last two starts, spanning 11 frames. Further, Skubal’s four-seam velocity was it’s season-high in the last two contests though he used it less in lieu of more changeups. However, the added velocity and less frequent deployment could have kept batters more off balance. Lastly, the Mariners have registered the second worst weighted on base average with a lefty on the hill.

Keeping it in the Motor City, Michael Fulmer has captured a pair of saves this past week. The Tigers have been searching for a closer, perhaps they’ll keep the converted starter in the role. Fulmer has been injury prone, so perhaps he can prosper coming out of the bullpen. It’s notable Fulmer’s four-seam velocity has peaked in his last two outings.

For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.

Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.

Catcher — Austin Nola (R), 31%, San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez): It took Nola a couple of weeks to shake off the rust after making his 2021 debut in late April, but it seems he has his timing back with a .462/.588/.769 three-game stretch heading into Tuesday’s action. Of course he won’t keep it up, but Nola was considered a top-10 backstop before getting hurt in the spring and unlike most available catchers, he hits in the heart of a productive lineup.

First Base — Yandy Diaz (R), 11%, Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (LHP John Means): Diaz still isn’t lofting the ball enough to take advantage of his hard contact, but at least the hits are starting to pile up as he’s slashed .500/.563/.786 in his last hour starts through Monday’s games.

Second Base — Jonathan Schoop (R), 5%, Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners (RHP Logan Gilbert): Consider Schoop another hot hitter as demonstrated by a 345/.367/.586 performance over the past weeks. Streaks unto themselves are not predictive, but the recent production has elevated Schoop to the five-hole with a righty on the hill.

Third Base — Maikel Franco (R), 9%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Rich Hill): To date, Franco has homered only one with a lefty on the bump, but he historically hits southpaws harder than righties and the weather is warning in Camden Yards.

Shortstop — Mauricio Dubon (R), 4%, San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (LHP Wade Miley): The Giants are quietly making solid use of platoon matchups, keyed by Dubon’s ability to seamlessly move from middle infield to center field. A .450/.476/.650 stretch over the past eight games heading into Tuesday helped San Francisco maximize Dubon’s defensive flexibility.

Corner Infield — Jonathan Villar (S), 19%, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (RHP Charlie Morton): Injuries have resulted in steady playing time for Villar and while he’s not hitting for average, the veteran has a pair of homers and here bags in March. Further, Villar is usually a points league afterthought, but with nine walks this month, he can be deployed in that format as well as rotisserie where his steals always are beneficial.

Middle Infield — Nicky Lopez (L), 4%, Kansas City Royals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (RHP Corbin Burnes): Getting on base will be a challenge, though Burned did finally walk his first hitter last time out. Lopez’s allure is he’s running from the nine-hole, swiping a pair of bags over the past week and the Brewers are one of the easiest teams to run on.

Outfield — Lorenzo Cain (R), 32%, Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brad Keller): Recently, it was suggested Kolten Wong should benefit from the return of Christian Yelich. Ditto for Cain as the Brewers should be set up for a big game against one of the worst starters over the first quarter of the season.

Outfield — Harrison Bader (R), 22%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Trevor Cahill): With four homers and a pair of pilfers since making his 2021 debut on April 30, Bader is just one steal shy of matching last season’s totals, in fewer than half the plate appearances. The Cardinals check in with a “10” rating under stolen bases for this game, giving Bader a good chance to grab that bag.

Outfield — David Dahl (L), 6%, Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees (RHP Corey Kluber): Generally, when Dahl is healthy, he’s productive. Unfortunately, he spends more time on the IL than the field. He’s been healthy lately and playing regularly against righthanders, posting a 281/.324/.563 line with a steal over the past week.

Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.

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