Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday
The slate features several pitchers to stream, but since two are just north of the usual 50% cutoff used to identify candidates, a bonus pick will be offered. Batters are dotted with many familiar names as rostership levels are stagnant at the point of the season. Many of the highlighted batters would have been picked up by more fantasy managers earlier in the season.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (L), rostered in 35% of ESPN leagues, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Cortes has been stuck on two wins since August 20, despite pitching well enough for his third over his last three starts. On that stretch, Cortes has 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 17 frames, fanning 16 along the way. The lefty will be favored in this encounter with an Orioles club on pace for 110 losses.
Tanner Houck (R), 15%, Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners: After winning all three of his starts to end the 2020 campaign, Houck has yet to pick up a victory this season in 13 appearances (11 starts). He has, however, posted a solid 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 63 punch outs in 53 1/3 innings. Wednesday would be a good time to break into the win column, but it won’t be easy as two of the combatants in the AL Wild Card chase square off.
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Ranger Suarez (L), 53%, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: If Suarez began the season with a 1.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over his first six starts, his roster ship would be much higher, even with some good fortune aiding the ERA. Of course, Suarez started the season as a reliever, even serving as closer for a shirt stint before transitioning to the rotation. The above numbers represent Suarez’s last six starts, in which he’s also fanned 31 in 32 frames. Suarez is in a great spot to continue his second half surge, facing a Cubs lineup fanning at a healthy 27% clip against lefties since the break.
Huascar Ynoa (R), 57%, Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies: Ynoa was one the first half’s top stories before he punched the bench. Many wondered if he’d continue to dominate upon returning since he was pitching at a newfound level before breaking his hand. Well, since returning on August 17, Ynoa has been almost as good, recording a 3.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 28 whiffs in 28 stanzas.
Tylor Megill (R), 19%, New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: In his three stats since Megill was lit up by the San Francisco Giants, he’s dominated by fanning 23 in 18 innings, issuing just five free passes. However, four homers allowed in that span fueled a 4.00 ERA despite a stingy .94 WHIP. On paper, the long ball shouldn’t be an issue facing the Cardinals as they tote the eighth lowest home run rate into Citi Field.
Bullpen:
Giovanny Gallegos has four saves over the past week. He also has punched out seven of the 12 batters faced in that span. He’s currently available in around half of ESPN leagues but it’s best to hurry as his rostership is on the rise.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Pedro Severino (R), 4%, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (LHP Nestor Cortes Jr.): Severino’s tenure as the Orioles starting backstop could be coming to an end with top prospect Adley Rutschman crushing Triple-A pitching. Severino will make it through the season but look for Baltimore to give Rutschman the chance to win the job next spring. In the meantime, Severino is in play when a lefty is on the hill, especially in Camden Yards.
First Base — LaMonte Wade Jr. (L), 15%, San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (RHP Joe Musgrove): Take your pick, both Brandon Belt and Wade are first base (and outfield) eligible, and both have been constantly productive against righthanders all season.
Second Base — Kolten Wong (L), 45%, Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers (RHP Matt Manning): Given, Wong has benefited from hitter-friendly American Family Field for his home games, but he’s pacing towards a career high wOBA. That said, he’s also sporting his best wRC+, which is neutralized for venue. Wong has picked it up lately, stroking .308/.357/.615 in the six games since being reinstated from the paternity list.
Third Base — Bobby Dalbec (R), 29%, Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners (LHP Marco Gonzales): Dalbec’s strikeouts have returned, fanning at a 37% clip over the six games heading into Tuesday’s action. However, the power remains with three homers in that span. The rookie remains dangerous, especially with the platoon edge.
Shortstop — Leury Garcia (S), 10%, Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels (Undecided): Garcia is known for his steady play but lately he’s been flexing his muscles with a .378/.405/.649 line over the past week. Not only is Garcia in a groove, but the switch-hitter is a nice way to get a piece of a productive White Sox lineup regardless of who the Angels send to the hill.
Corner Infield — Jake Lamb (L), under 1%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Michael Wacha): There are not many hitters available from an offense scoring 52 runs over a four-game span heading into Tuesday’s slate. Lamb is one of the few and should be in the lineup with a righty on the hill. Lamb has only played in two of the four games, but he chipped in with three hits in seven at bats, including a home run.
Middle Infield — J.P. Crawford (L), 23%, Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox (RHP Tanner Houck): Crawford’s .278 /.352/.389 over the last month may not be eye-popping, but it comes with 20 runs scored and has been a key reason for the Mariners surge into wild card contention.
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Outfield — Ben Gamel (L), 1%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (RHP Vladimir Gutierrez): Gamel is a sneaky points league fill in as he’s been fanning less lately, leading to getting on base at a healthy 40% rate over the last week, chipping in with five runs and four RBI over that span.
Outfield — Joc Pederson (L), 4%, Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela): Announcers like to say a player is due when they’re mired in a slump. In Pederson’s case, he’s due because he’s been crushing the ball over the past week without much to show for it. To wit, Pederson has plastered five balls over 95 mph in his last six games, three of which eclipsed triple digits.
Outfield — Bryan De La Cruz (R), 6%, Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (LHP Josh Rogers): While De La Cruz is playing out over his skis with a .338/.386/.481 line since being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline, he did post a similar .324/.362/.518 with Triple-Sugar Land. So while he’s a candidate for regression, the landing should be soft.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.