Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday
Despite the presence of several elite arms on the card, there is a nice supply of spot starters. However, the bevy of solid pitching takes away from the usual lush inventory of bats, especially if you want to strategically avoid using a batter against a pitcher you grab to stream.
Good luck getting over the hump. Here are Wednesday’s featured players, with everyone rostered in no more than 50% of all ESPN leagues.
Austin Gomber (L), rostered in 36% of ESPN leagues, Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: File this more under a fun fact than actionable. In Gomber’s two starts in San Francisco, he’s recorded a 22.24 ERA and 3.71 WHIP. Meanwhile, the rest of the season he’s registered a 3.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, including nine starts in Coors Field. Gomber is in a great spot to continue dominating “the rest,” as the Cubs have the eighth lowest wOBA against lefthanders since dealing away three of their top batters, as well as fanning 28% of the time facing southpaws with their revamped lineup.
Josiah Gray (R), 27%, Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: In his rookie campaign, Gray has allowed 13 earned runs on 11 homers. In fact, since being acquired in the Max Scherzer, all seven of his earned runs with the Nationals have come on solo homers. One way to approach this is so long as he keeps the ball in the yard, Gray is in great shape. However, the flip side is he’ll eventually start surrendering runs without the benefit on the long ball, at which point he’ll be in trouble. Realistically, both will be true as Gray’s homers will drop while runs allowed without a home run will increase. To be honest, all we care about currently is this start, and the freshman is in a great spot as the Marlins sport the sixth lowest wOBA and ninth poorest home run rate against righthanders over the second half.
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Tarik Skubal (L), 36%, Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals: Skubal appears to be benefiting from the extra rest he’s been afforded between starts in August and will continue to receive the remainder of the season. In his two outings this month, Skubal has turned in a pair of quality starts, fanning 13 with just one walk in 12 2/3 innings, yielding just one run on 11 hits. Next up is a road interleague affair, so the lefty won’t face a designated hitter. However, beware as Skubal will take on a Cardinals lineup that has handled lefthanders well since the break.
Edward Cabrera (R), 11%, Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: When it comes to young, talented arms, the Marlins have an embarrassment of riches. The latest is Cabrera as he’s set to make his MLB debut on Wednesday. He began the season in extended spring training as right biceps inflammation kept him out of action in the spring. Cabrera then dominated at High-A and Double-A before starting six games for Triple-A Jacksonville. The 23-year-old flamethrower fanned 48 in 29 1/3 innings for the Jumbo Shrimp but also issued 19 free passes. Control will be key to success at the major league level, despite being able to register triple digits on the radar gun.
Tyler Gilbert (L), 14%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates: Gilbert’s reward for twirling a no-hitter in his first ever start was an all-expense paid trip to Coors Field. The Rockies ended Gilbert’s hopes of matching Johnny Vander Meer’s two straight no-nos early, then tagged him for four runs on nine hits in five frames. Next up is a Pirates lineup checking in with the third lowest wOBA facing righthanders over the second half.
Bullpen:
Matt Barnes has allowed eight runs over his last 3 1/3 innings with nine hits and three walks in that span. Seven of the 10 outs he recorded were via the strikeout, sparing further damage. There is no indication Barnes’ role as closer is in jeopardy, though it wouldn’t be a surprise for Alex Cora to temporarily remove him. Adam Ottavino would be next in line, but he’s also been in a rut lately. This renders Garrett Whitlock an intriguing pickup, at least in the short term. The Rule 5 pick from the Yankees won’t win, but he deserves some AL Rookie of the Year consideration with a 1.64 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, punching out 67 in 60 1/3 innings.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Daulton Varsho (L), 26%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Mitch Keller): Varsho has been frustrating for all those hoping for steals from behind the plate, but then it’s hard to rack up the pilfers when you’re in your home run trot. Heading into Tuesday’s action, Varsho left the yard in three straight games. To be fair, the first two were in Coors Field, but the last was in the opener of the road series in PNC Park.
First Base — Albert Pujols (R), 4%, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (LHP Blake Snell): The last two times the Dodgers have faced a lefthander, Pujols has batted third, which is the most productive spot from a fantasy basis. Dave Roberts continues to play the future Hall of Famer against southpaws, likely a result of Pujols slashing .308/.347/.615 with the platoon edge this season.
Second Base — Luis Garcia (L), 1%, Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (RHP Edward Cabrera): Cabrera is talented, but he wouldn’t be the first freshman to display jitters in his debut as we’ve already witnessed it several times this season. That said, the 21-year-old Garcia isn’t exactly crushing it, though he’s fanning at a low rate. Truth be told, Garcia is mostly a conduit to exposure to Cabrera, in case he struggles. Garcia does have the platoon edge and patience to wait out the rookie hurler.
Third Base — Matt Duffy (R), 1%, Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber): Duffy missed two months with a lower back strain, then struggled for a few games upon returning the week after the All-Star break. However, he’s found his stroke in August, slashing .328/.361/.345 for the month.
Shortstop — Zack Short (R), under 1%, Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Jon Lester): Short is in a platoon with Harold Castro. Despite serving as the righthanded option, Short has seen a lot of action lately as Detroit has drawn an inordinate number of southpaw starters. His high strikeout rate tempers production, though Short does possess decent power and speed. Shortstop is tough to fill on the ledger so Short gets the nod as he’ll enjoy the platoon bump on Lester, who has 7.08 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings with the Cardinals. Lester has only eight whiffs in this span, giving Short a good chance to put the ball in play.
Corner Infield — Yoshi Tsutsugo (R), 1%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (LHP Tyler Gilbert): I know, this is three days in a row for Tsutsugo, but his rostership remains at 1% and he’s cracked three homers over his last 10 trips to the dish, so he warrants one more blurb. From 2017-2019, Tsutsugo slashed .284/.392/.540 for the Yokohama Bay Stars of Nippon Professional Baseball. He was signed by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 but understandably had trouble acclimating under the trying conditions. Obviously, he won’t keep up the pace, but still just 29-years-old, Tsutsugo may finally be comfortable.
Middle Infield — Paul DeJong (R), 33%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers (LHP Tarik Skubal): Despite keeping the ball in the yard lately, Skubal has administered 26 big flies in 123 frames this season. DeJong has been losing playing time lately, but he’s still a power threat.
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Outfield — Jake Meyers (R), 12%, Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals (LHP Mike Minor): It’s understandable how someone may dismiss Meyers recent .342/.366/.632 stretch as a hot streak and be fearful of catching the downfall. However, keep in mind Meyers put up a .343/.408/.598 line with Triple-A Sugar Land before getting the call to the bigs.
Outfield — Brandon Nimmo (L), 42%, New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants (RHP Johnny Cueto): Injuries have curtailed Nimmo’s campaign as he’s had trouble getting in a groove. That said, he’s been his old self the past three weeks, getting on base at a 37% clip. As such, he’s once again a strong asset in points leagues as the Mets leadoff batter.
Outfield — Jesus Sanchez (L), 3%, Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals (RHP Josiah Gray): From a strict fantasy sense, an out is an out, though some points leagues penalize for strikeouts. However, from a future perspective, a low number of punch outs in combo with some walks often portends a rise in production. That’s exactly where Sanchez is at, walking three time without fanning in his last four games.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.