Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday
As will be the case the rest of the season, one of the common threads of finding spot starters will be targeting weak lineups, most notably the Cubs, Pirates and Diamondbacks. Two of three make the Wednesday list. Hitters are fortified with another Coors Field affair.
Good luck getting over the hump. Here are some ideas to help, all available in over half of all ESPN leagues.
Tarik Skubal (L), rostered in 33% of ESPN leagues, Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: Skubal walked a generous 36 batters in his first 77 2/3 innings of the 2021 season. Since, he’s only issued five free passes in the ensuing 38 2/3 frames. Granted, his strikeouts dropped significantly, but with regards to long term growth, this is a positive development. That said, our focus is short term and Skubal will face an Angels offense struggling against southpaws since the break. To wit, the Halos have the fourth lowest wOBA against lefthanders over the second half while fanning at the eighth highest rate against them.
Mitch White (R), fewer than 1%, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Dodgers haven’t decided whether White will serve as a traditional starter or cover bulk innings, but either way he is in play with a home date against one of the league’s weakest lineups. Coming in after an opener is preferred for fantasy since White could notch a win working fewer than five frames. That said, he’s stretched out enough to last the minimum. Walks and homers have been an issue, but White fanned nine over his last two outings, spanning 7 2/3 innings.
Ranger Suarez (L), 12%, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: This will be Suarez’s fourth start since entering the Phillies rotation. While he has yet to complete five frames, Suarez did throw 82 pitches over 4 1/3 stanzas last time out, so he should be able to secure another two outs in Wednesday’s tilt with the offensively challenged Diamondbacks’ lineup. Since the break, Arizona has averaged the ninth fewest runs per game in the league.
Tylor Megill (R), 22%, New York Mets at San Francisco Giants: Deciding on a fourth streaming option was a chore as all the candidates come with risk. Cole Irvin was considered but facing the White Sox in Chicago is too daunting. Nationals’ rookie Josiah Gray will likely make the cut a few times down the stretch, but even without the designated hitter, keeping the Blue Jays in check is too much to ask. Megill earned the nod despite facing a potent Giants lineup. The Mets 26-year-old freshman has fanned an impressive 54 in 50 frames while issuing just 13 bases on ball. San Francisco’s offense is potent, but they have whiffed at a healthy 26% clip since the break.
Bullpen: Gregory Soto has been one of the best closers over the last two weeks as he’s saved four games for the Tigers, along with punching out nine hitters in 4 2/3 innings, walking just one. His exploits are beginning to be noticed as his rostership is climbing. It currently sits at 40% so it’s worth checking if you need a saves boost.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Austin Nola (R), 25%, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber): There aren’t many San Diego batters nestled below the 50% cutoff with Nola being one of the few. Amping up your catcher spot is a bonus. Nola has battled injuries most of the season so he’s yet to get in a consistent groove, but he’s an accomplished hitter with the pop to take advantage of Coors Field.
First Base — Connor Joe (R), 10%, Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (RHP Jake Arrieta): Lefty, righty, lately it doesn’t matter for Joe. He’s clubbed six homers since July 30, fanning only six times in those 58 plate appearances. Despite being released by the Cubs amid his worst season ever, Arrieta gets another chance for a playoff run with the Padres. The bad news is his Friars debut is in Colorado.
Second Base — Aledmys Diaz (R), 24%, Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brady Singer): Diaz is another batter immune to the platoon edge as he’s hitting everyone hard lately. With Alex Bregman at least a week away from returning, theirs is still time to get in on Diaz’s fantasy goodness. Since taking over at the hot corner, Diaz has slashed .347/.373/.583. He carried an eight-game hitting streak into Tuesday’s action.
Third Base — Ronald Torreyes (R), 2%, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (Undecided): Torreyes has quietly usurped the third base gig from Alec Bohm. Torreyes filled in admirably for Didi Gregorius at shortstop, earning regular play at the expense of Bohm. Truth be told, Torreyes’ .293/.310/.439 slash in August isn’t stellar, but it’s an upgrade over what the Phillies were getting at the hot corner.
Shortstop — Jonathan Villar (S), 24%, New York Mets at San Francisco Giants (RHP Anthony DeSclafani): Injuries and his own solid play have thrust back into a regular role, and he’s responded, opening the series in San Francisco with a combo meal. The homer was his fourth in August while the steal was his second this week. Villar can collect bags in bunches which can be fantasy gold this time of the season.
Corner Infield — Bobby Dalbec (R), 12%, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (LHP Andrew Heaney): Not long ago, Enrique Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe qualified for this spot, but they’ve since eclipsed the 50% cutoff. This leaves Dalbec and his .504 slug facing lefties as the option against a lefty surrendering eight homers in 15 stanzas since donning pinstripes.
Middle Infield — Tommy La Stella (L), 7%, San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets (RHP Tylor Megill): La Stella has been an everyday player for the last few seasons, but he’s assumed a platoon role with the Strat-O-Matic Giants. Considering San Francisco enjoys the best record in MLB, all La Stella can do is contribute when given the chance, which he’s done lately.
Outfield — Jake Fraley (L), 4%, Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (RHP Mike Foltynewicz): After ranking as one of the worst starters over the first four month of the season, Foltynewicz has pitched better in August, compiling a 3.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts, though he’s only fanned nine in those 18 frames. As such, it behooves a fantasy lineup to include as many Mariners batters as possible, with Fraley fronting the list. The numbers don’t show it yet, but Fraley has been hitting the ball the past week while cutting back on strikeouts. This is usually a harbinger for a hot streak.
Outfield — Andrew Vaughn (R), 45%, Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Cole Irvin): Keeping in mind a righthanded batter doesn’t own his platoon splits until at least his fifth full season on the bigs, Vaughn has crushed southpaws in his rookie campaign, registering a .319/.418/.649 slash with the platoon bump. This will almost assuredly regress, but Vaughn is still in play with a lefty on the hill.
Outfield — Jo Adell (R), 16%, Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (LHP Tarik Skubal): Like Fraley, Adell has been stinging the ball lately with the commensurate results. In his prior eight games, Adell has hit nine balls over 95 mph, five of which topped the century mark.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.