Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday
It’s a very good day for grinders with a healthy supply of pitchers and some solid bats to give your lineup a midweek boost. Here they are, with everyone rostered in fewer than half of all ESPN leagues.
Tyler Anderson (L), rostered in 16% of ESPN leagues, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: Anderson did not earn a decision in his first two starts with Seattle, working a total of 10 1/3 innings with five earned runs allowed, fanning just seven. Anderson is in a great spot to secure his first victory with the Mariners as the Rangers bring the least productive offense against lefties into T-Mobile Park. Anderson has been quietly solid all season, yielding three or fewer runs in 17 of his 20 starts.
Joe Ross (R), 26%, Washington Nationals at New York Mets: Ross was slow out of the gate as he registered a 5.19 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over his first nine starts. Something clicked at the end of May as the righty has recorded a 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in the ensuing 10 starts. A 21.6% K-BB% in this span supports the improvement, though a fortunate .270 BABIP has certainly helped.
Touki Toussaint (R), 25%, Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: Toussaint has started four games for the Braves, posting a 4.43 ERA. However, his xFIP and SIERA are half a run lower as the 25-year-old righty has been victimized by a 21.2% HR/FB mark that is due to fall with more innings. Most notable in Toussaint’s return to the majors is a 6.5% walk rate in 22 1/3 innings, by far the lowest of his career. While this could normally be brushed away as sample size noise, Toussaint has completely shuffled his pitch mix, bagging his four-seamer for a two-seamer he throws over 50% of the time, supplemented by a curve and splitter.
Tarik Skubal (L), 27%, Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles: After two straight outings where Skubal surrendered three homers, he held the Red Sox scoreless last time out, scattering five hits with four strikeouts in five frames. Next up is another offense that can hit the long ball, especially at home as the Orioles sport the sixth highest home run rate facing lefties. Even so, Skubal’s 25.5% strikeout rate and wins potential for a Tigers team with a tidy 46-38 record since May 5 is worth playing assuming you can accept some ratio risk.
Cal Quantrill (R), 47%, Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics: Has Cleveland done it again? The club has earned a reputation for working with pitchers to maximize potential and if recent performance is any indication, Quantrill could be the next success story. He’s notched five quality starts in his last six outings, pitching to a 1.50 ERA and .97 WHIP. He only fanned 29 in those 36 frames, though Quantrill has punched out 16 batters in his previous 13 stanzas.
Bullpen: While most of the focus in this section is on saves, a goodly portion of leagues score holds, so let’s take a look at the leaders in the category since the break. Tyler Matzek (Braves) and Michael Kopech (White Sox) are tied for the league with seven. Zack Britton (Yankees) and Genesis Cabrera (Cardinals) are next with half a dozen. Blake Treinen (Dodgers), Steve Cishek (Angels), Giovanny Gallegos (Cardinals), Luke Jackson (Braves) and Jose Cisnero (Tigers) all check in with five holds.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Seby Zavala (R), 1%, Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (RHP Bailey Ober): Zavala has been quiet since his three-homer game on July 31, but he’s still the regular backstop of the team averaging the sixth highest runs per game in the league. Holding the platoon edge is always nice, but since all three of those longballs came off a righty, it isn’t obligatory.
First Base — Rowdy Tellez (L), 16%, Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (RHP Jake Arrieta): It will be interesting to see what the Brewers do when Dan Vogelbach is ready to return soon since he and Tellez are essentially carbon copies. Though, Tellez has an option remaining so he could be the odd man out. That said, since being acquired from the Blue Jays in early July, Tellez has swatted a robust .318/.403/.591, with a great chance to improve on that mark with the platoon edge on one of the weakest arms on the slate.
Second Base — Luis Arraez (L), 28%, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (RHP Lance Lynn): Not only has Arraez picked up where he left off prior to an IL stint with a sore knee, he’s been on a heater since returning, slashing .444/.500/.556 after coming back on July 31. This season, and for his career, Arraez has handled righthanders better than suggested by the normal platoon split. He’s well short of the plate appearances needed to say he owns the split, but it’s significant enough to leverage for streaming purposes.
Third Base — Carter Kieboom (R), 8%, Washington Nationals at New York Mets (LHP Rich Hill): As is often the case with young hitters, especially those debuting as a 21-year-old, Kieboom seemed overmatched in his first two tours in the majors. Since being handed the third base gig in the nation’s capital, Kieboom has shaved his strikeout rate to 21.2% while walking at a 11.5% clip. These are acceptable in today’s landscape, indicating Kieboom is more comfortable in his third season. On the other side, Hill continues to regain the effectiveness on his signature curve since MLB has cracked down on grip enhancement.
Shortstop — Miguel Rojas (R), 25%, Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres (LHP Ryan Weathers): The Marlins have several righthanded options to deploy against Weather with Rojas getting the nod since shortstop is hard to fill on Wednesday. Lewis Brinson and Jorge Alfaro are also in play. Rojas continues to be steady, hitting safely in 10-of-11 games (.326/.356/.512) heading into Tuesday’s action.
Corner Infield — Brandon Belt (L), 18%, San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Merrill Kelly): With so many platoon options, Belt will likely only start against righthanders the rest of the season. To be honest, this is more relevant in weekly leagues as he was rarely in play in daily formats when slated to face a southpaw. Kelly is pitching well, but what Belt has done since returning from the IL last Friday can’t be ignored, leaving the yard four times in his last three games.
Middle Infield — Hoy Park (L), 1%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Adam Wainwright): A strong start with the Pirates has landed Park a top the Bucs order. He’s earned the spot by slashing .320/.370/.480 in seven games with his new club.
Outfield — Akil Baddoo (L), 48%, Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Matt Harvey): Baddoo remains a threat whenever a righthander is on the hill. The rookie’s freshman season has had its shares of ups and downs. This far, he’s hit safely in six of seven August starts. Baddoo will face Harvey, who has won three of four starts since the break, but the underlying metrics point to more good luck than good pitching.
Outfield — Austin Hays (R), 38%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers (LHP Tarik Skubal): Hays is primed for a solid finish to the season, as he’s avoided injury and is beginning to hit the ball with more authority. That said, he’s crushed southpaw pitching all season, slashing .315/.347/.559 against them.
Outfield — Chas McCormick (R), 2%, Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela): The Astros were comfortable dealing Myles Straw to Cleveland because they trusted McCormick to handle center field in his stead. Thus far, the move has paid dividends as McCormick has recorded a 375/.375/.583 line the past week, chipping in with a steal.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.