Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday
It’s not the strongest card for streamers, at least not yet as there are several squads yet to announce Wednesday’s starter. If someone emerges, they’ll be added in the standard morning update.
There’s just a few more days of grinding until everyone gets a well-deserved respite. Here are some suggestions to head into the break on a high note.
Drew Smyly (L), rostered in 28% of ESPN leagues, Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates: Other than enjoying home field advantage, Smyly checks all the boxes. He may he on the road, but the lefty benefits from a marked park upgrade. He’s facing a second-division lineup and has been pitching well lately. In fact, Smyly has won his last four starts, compiling a 1.21 ERA and .99 WHIP over 22 1/3 innings, collecting 21 punch outs over that span.
Antonio Senzatela (R), 7%, Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: While it’s certainly not the first time, a Rockies pitcher rarely makes the cut. When they do, they’re no doubt facing a weak lineup on the road. That said, Senzatela’s last three home outings were quality starts. On Wednesday, he’ll take the hill in a pitching venue against a Diamondback offense checking in with the second lowest weighted on base average (wOBA) against righthanders.
Domingo German (R), 35%, New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners: After opening the season with a pair of short outings, German averaged a tick under six stanzas over his subsequent nine starts. However, he’s failed to last five frames over his last four efforts, registering a 9.98 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in those 15 1/3 innings. German has a favorable matchup to right the ship as the Mariners have the eighth lowest wOBA against righties while fanning the fourth most against them.
Casey Mize (R), 55%, Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers: Without a viable fourth spot starter, let’s bend the eligibility rules a bit for Mize. The 24-year-old righthander is coming off a rough outing, but before that he had strung eight quality starts in his previous 10 outings. Mize’s 20.1% strikeout rate is a bit low, but he’s still developing and should add more swing-and-miss as he further refines his arsenal. The Rangers are good strikeout fodder as the whiff at an above average clip against righties.
Bullpen
A twin bill means twice the odds of snagging a save. As it happens, both the Rays and Indians have excellent options for a speculative pickup. For Tampa, Diego Castillo is the primary closer (62% rostership) while Pete Fairbanks (9%) a great one-day rental. James Karinchak (92%) and Emmanuel Clase (62%) are co-closers. Clase has struggled lately, blowing Monday’s save chance but could get another shot if Karinchak pitches in the opener.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
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Catcher — Jacob Stallings (R), 7%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves (LHP Drew Smyly): Stallings is struggling versus lefthanders this season but for his career, he fares much better with the platoon edge and the larger sample is far more telling. Stalling’s main allure is the Pirates have installed him as their cleanup batter which is one of the most productive lineup spots for fantasy purposes.
First Base — Joey Votto (L), 38%, Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brady Singer): It’s a little surprising Votto’s rostership continues to linger well below 50% despite maintaining a more aggressive approach with resulting power. After going 0-for-8 in his first two games off the IL, Votto has slashed .318/.389/.565 over his last 24 starts.
Second Base — Enrique Hernandez (R), 37%, Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (LHP Andrew Heaney): Sure, Hernandez is on a heat, batting .353/.476/.735 over his last nine games. More importantly, he’s cemented his stead as the leadoff hitter in one of the league’s highest scoring offenses. Enjoying the platoon edge is the icing on the cake.
Third Base — Jake Burger (R), 3%, Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (LHP J.A. Happ): Burger has played some hot corner as well as serving as the designated hitter following the demotion of Yermin Mercedes. Burger isn’t playing every day, but chances are he’ll be in the lineup with a lefty on the hill. The rookie was slated to play in the Futures Game before being summoned to the bigs. The 25-year-old infielder lost the 2018 and 2019 campaigns recovering from two surgeries on his Achilles. Burger posted a .322/.368/.596 line with Triple-A Charlotte so he’s worth a speculative pickup.
Shortstop — Jose Iglesias (R), 7%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez): The slick-fielding shortstop is well on his way to a new career high in homers as he’s already slugged seven, just four away from his personal best which came in almost twice as many plate appearances.
Corner Infield — Andrew Vaughn (R), 38%, Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (LHP J.A. Happ): Vaughn carried a seven-game hitting streak into Tuesday’s action, slashing .423/.414/.731 over that stretch. Jumping on streaks are risky, but a low 14% strikeout rate the past week reduces the odds of a poor game, especially against a hittable southpaw.
Middle Infield — Jurickson Profar (S), 19%, San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin): Since cratering with a .588 OPS in late June, Profar has been on a tear, slashing .588/.650/.824 since June 27. He was losing playing time, but the streak has Profar starting almost every game for the past week.
Outfield — Alex Dickerson (L), 9%, San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Johan Oviedo): The Giants lead the National League in homers, primarily by taking advantage of matchups. The lefty-swinging Dickerson has mashed all eight of his long balls with a righty on the hill, with two coming over the past week.
Outfield — Guillermo Heredia (R), 4%, Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Wil Crowe): The advantage garnered from platoons is important, but there are other factors, too. For instance, Crowe is one of the weaker hurlers on Wednesday’s card and Heredia is a conduit, hitting a reasonable sixth in a dangerous lineup.
Outfield — Jake Fraley (L), 15%, Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees (RHP Domingo German): Since returning from the IL on May 31, Fraley has posted a .282/.421/.541 with a sneaky six steals in seven tries with much of the production coming against righthanded pitching.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.