Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Wednesday
As much as I’d like to share some pearls of wisdom regarding how to use this to your advantage, it doesn’t mean much in leagues with daily moves, which is the focus of this column. Sure, you’ll need to find a replacement for Fernando Tatis Jr. a few more times over the second half, but do you really want to deal him for someone with more games? Yeah, me neither.
After wrapping up a brief two-game set to begin the week, the Dodgers and Giants will be sitting things out on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks and Cardinals will get things going with a 1:15 PM ET start at Busch Stadium. Three more matinees follow before the final 10 games are played under the lights.
With all that in mind, here are Wednesday’s choices to help bolster your fantasy squad, with everyone rostered in roughly 50% or fewer ESPN leagues.
Kwang Hyun Kim (L), rostered in 10% of ESPN leagues, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kim began the season missing more bats than expected as he fanned 32 hitters in his first 32 innings. Since then, he has punched out just 13 men over the 22 1/3 subsequent frames. He has used a few more curves in lieu of his slider in recent outings but, other than that, there isn’t any marked difference as his velocity and spin rates have been consistent all season. His swinging strike rate through his first seven outings was 10.6%, compared to only 5.9% over his last five. That latter mark is inordinately low and should return to its early level. The caveat here is that, despite their recent woes, Arizona hits southpaws well.
Steven Matz (L), 50%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: Matz last pitched on June 12, as he tested positive for COVID-19 and was quarantined. Since the left-hander was asymptomatic, Matz was still able to throw bullpen sessions. As such, he should be stretched out enough to work his usual five (or perhaps six) innings. Before missing time, Matz was pitching well, with a 3.58 ERA in his last six starts, fanning 38 in his 32 2/3 innings. A .367 BABIP in that span bloated his WHIP, but Matz mitigated the damage with only three homers allowed. Playing at “home” against the Mariners should be a great matchup for Matz’s return, as the visitors bring the league’s fifth-highest K-rate and fourth-worst wOBA against lefties into Sahlen Field.
David Peterson (L), 7%, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Now it gets hairy. Peterson is in play because he’s pitched well over his last three efforts and there is research demonstrating that pitchers on a roll tend to continue pitching well. Of course, at some point, every hot streak ends, hence the concern. Peterson is dealing with a road affair with a huge park downgrade in terms of pitching. That said, the Braves sport a slightly below average wOBA against southpaws, along with the eighth-highest strikeout clip.
Cal Quantrill (R), 3%, Cleveland vs. Detroit Tigers: Quantrill’s inclusion is based more on the opposition than his own merit, which is risky. Specifically, the Tigers sport a below average wOBA facing right-handers, with the league’s second-highest K-rate. After spending most of the first half in the bullpen, Quantrill has now started three straight games, the last of which saw him surrender six runs to the Twins over 4 1/3 innings. That said, he’s only walked three while serving up just one homer in this span of 13 1/3 frames.
Bullpen: The Blue Jays traded Joe Panik and a minor-league pitcher to the Marlins for Corey Dickerson and Adam Cimber. Dickerson is the most recognizable name, but Toronto’s target was Cimber. The right-hander doesn’t rack up too many strikeouts, but he’s stingy with walks and is considered to be “a groundball machine.” In 170 2/3 career innings, Cimber has only given up a dozen homers, without any allowed in 34 1/3 frames so far this season. His lack of dominance hurts his case for ninth-inning duties, but who knows what may transpire with the injury-prone and often ineffective Toronto relief corps?
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
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Catcher — Omar Narvaez (L), 49%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Jake Arrieta): You know how when you see a team has put up double-digit runs and you excitedly click on the box score to see how well the your fantasy guy did and you see he had an 0-fer? Well, that was Narvaez on Monday, though he walked twice and tallied one of the Brewers’ 14 runs. However, this serves as a reminder as to why Narvaez is such a good streamer. He hits fifth in a potent lineup and often contributes to Milwaukee’s increasingly solid offense.
First Base — Christian Walker (R), 33%, Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Kwang Hyun Kim): A pair of IL stints have marred Walker’s disappointing first half. However, he’s showing signs of returning to his 2019-2020 form with a .310/.355/.552 line over his last eight games heading into Tuesday’s action. The key here is his paltry 9.7% strikeout rate in that stretch, suggesting he’s actually in a groove and not just catching some breaks.
Second Base — Enrique Hernandez (R), 23%, Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (LHP Mike Minor): Speaking of streaks, with three homers and four doubles over his last eight games, Hernandez has been reinstated to the leadoff spot. Hot spells can be snapped at any time, but enjoying the platoon edge at the top of a productive lineup in what appears will be another hot night in Fenway Park? That’s a good place to be.
Third Base — Hunter Dozier (R), 21%, Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (LHP Martin Perez): Dozier’s power has been conspicuously absent this season, which is odd since he’s sporting the highest average launch angle of his career. Upon further review, therein lies the problem, especially at home. Dozier’s fly balls have lost distance as the 2021 baseball incurs more air resistance with the raised seams. However, this isn’t as much of an issue with the Green Monster as opposed to the cavernous left field in Kauffman Stadium.
Shortstop — Elvis Andrus (R), 11%, Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers (LHP Kolby Allard): By the book, it’s better to target streamers hitting higher in the order than where Andrus has been batting. That said, the veteran has been thriving out of the nine-hole, and has even been running a bit with six steals in eight tries.
Corner Infield — Colin Moran (L), 11%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies (RHP Jon Gray): Be sure to check the lineup as Moran left Monday’s game after being hit by a pitch. If he is indeed playing on Wednesday, Moran is a solid option since he puts the ball in play — which is what you want to do in Coors Field. Remember, the venue is even better for accumulating base hits than it is for power.
Middle Infield — Keston Hiura (R), 50%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Jake Arrieta): Yeah, I’ll plead guilty to riding a streak as Hiura had hit safely in four straight games (including three homers) heading into Tuesday’s contest. However, Hiura’s modus operandi has always been to hit the ball with authority. He just fans too much to take full advantage of this skill. While a 25% K-rate is still high, if Hiura can maintain anything close to what he’s done of late, he won’t hover near the 50% rostered mark much longer.
Outfield — Myles Straw (R), 36%, Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Matt Harvey): Straw is another hitter worthy of streaming despite hitting at (or near) the bottom of the order. This is especially true when facing a pitcher of Harvey’s ilk as Houston is likely to turn the order over an extra time or two. Straw will be in contention for June’s Player of the Month with a 349/.423/.458 line that also features five steals.
Outfield — Brian Goodwin (L), 1%, Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Bailey Ober): As is the case with most left-handed swingers, Goodwin handles right-handed pitching better than he does southpaws. In fact, he’s recorded a 1.097 OPS with the platoon edge since joining the White Sox earlier this month.
Outfield — Harold Ramirez (R), 6%, Cleveland vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Wily Peralta): We’ve featured Cesar Hernandez a lot in the first half of the season, so maybe it’s time Ramirez was spotlighted, instead. He’s quietly shored up Cleveland’s outfield and, since joining the club in early May, Ramirez has hit .289/.323/.483. Like he’s done for much of his career, Ramirez is hitting both righties and lefties with equal aplomb.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.