Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday’s games
I truly didn’t believe I’d be writing any Tuesday Daily Notes this year. And it’s still not under the best of circumstances, but baseball is back, and it feels good to sit back and watch.
We obviously have next-to-nothing to go on for this season in regards to performance, although splits can be tricky even a month or so into a season. One benefit of the early season is that several gems are sitting on the wire just waiting to be scooped.
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Zach Plesac (R), rostered in 9% of ESPN leagues, Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox: Plesac’s 2019 rookie campaign was a bit overshadowed by the other standout pitching in Cleveland, including known stars Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger, as well as fellow rookie Aaron Civale. Plesac showed more strikeout potential in the minors, so he could tap into that now that he’s a bit more settled as a major leaguer. Sometimes rookie pitchers come up and just aim to get outs any way they can and don’t fully unleash their arsenal to maximize strikeouts. If that’s the case here, Plesac should be able to manage a 22-25% mark.
Homer Bailey (R), rostered in 2% of ESPN leagues, Minnesota Twins v. St. Louis Cardinals: Bailey had three good and two bad outings in his first five starts with Oakland last summer, but the bad ones were so rough that it left him with an 8.17 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. His skills suggested he should be getting better results, and he absolutely did over the final eight starts with a 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts in 48 innings. Bailey has the core skills to be at least stream-worthy across all formats, so while the Cardinals represent a strong challenge, I’m willing to give him a shot, especially after my top choice — Pablo Lopez — had his outing postponed for a second straight day.
Alec Mills (R), 1%, Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Mills threw all of 36 MLB innings last season, and 18 the year before, but he has missed bats at an impressive 29%. If he can trim his 1.3 HR/9, there’s some real upside here. The Reds are a tough offense, so even if you’re skeptical of taking the plunge here, Mills is at least deserving of putting on your watch list and then picking him up if he does well here.
The Dodgers’ pen is expected to be a weak spot on the club, but they are off to a strong start with Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, Scott Alexander, Dylan Floro, and newest acquisition Jake McGee all going scoreless through their four-game set with San Francisco.
Projected game scores
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2019 statistics
Catcher — Roberto Perez (R), 9%, Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox (LHP Carlos Rodon): Perez has always done his best against left-handers with a 136-point platoon advantage over his career. He had his best season yet against them in 2019 with a .264/.360/.504 line that included 9 HRs and 19 RBIs in 153 PA.
First base — Ji-Man Choi (L), 6%, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves (RHP Kyle Wright): Choi seemed to add switch-hitting to his arsenal with a mammoth shot as a right-hander on Sunday that left at 109.9 mph! But he’s known for doing well against righties with a career .849 OPS that includes a career-high 17 HRs in 393 PA against them last season.
Second base — Niko Goodrum (S), 17%, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (Undecided): This could be Glenn Sparkman, but I’ll give Goodrum a shot against Royals regardless of who it is. Flexibility, power/speed profile, and guaranteed playing time at the top of the lineup.
Third base — Jake Lamb (L), 2%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson): I don’t want to make too much of one game, but this is basically Last Chance Saloon for Lamb. He was last fantasy relevant back in 2017, and of course injury has played a major role in that, but it’d be nice to see him get back to hitting well against righties the way he did when he clubbed 59 HRs across two seasons from 2016-17. Gibson has allowed an .814 OPS or higher in three of his past four seasons against lefties.
Shortstop — Dansby Swanson (R), 34%, Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Yonny Chirinos): An injury derailed his breakthrough season, as he was hitting .265/.330/.468 with a 28-HR and a 12-SB pace before missing a month. He’s off to a fast start this season, and I’m betting on him to play more like the pre-injury 2019 iteration.
Corner infield — Miguel Cabrera (R), 17%, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (Undecided): Cabrera remained his svelte new self through the quarantine, as he entered spring training looking remarkably fit. If his legs are back, the power can return and make him worthy of at least a corner infield spot in most formats.
Middle infield — Chris Taylor (R), 22%, Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros (LHP Framber Valdez): A benefactor of Gavin Lux’s demotion, Taylor should find himself in the lineup most days, bouncing between the infield and outfield. Taylor is coming off his best season ever against lefties with an .859 OPS and .263 ISO in 162 PA.
Outfield — Shin-Soo Choo (L), 49%, Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Merrill Kelly): Choo might not last long below 50%. Once he gets going, he’ll be seen as at least a bench option in all formats. For now we can lean on his career .883 OPS against righties.
Outfield — Kyle Lewis (R), 23%, Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (Undecided): Lewis has picked up where his hot cup of coffee left off last year. He smacked six homers in just 75 PA to help some people lock in fantasy titles, and now he’s got another pair in his first 13 PA of 2020. He’s pacing for a keen 62 homers over 162 games at this point. I don’t think he’s going to hit quite that many, but he’s an emerging power bat.
Outfield — Ian Happ (S), 15%, Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Tyler Mahle): How is he still down at 15%? I’m frankly surprised he even started this low, but then I figured a quick start with two HRs and a 1.264 OPS over the weekend would push his roster rate up. He does his best work against righties with a career .865 OPS, so hopefully he can continue his quick start Tuesday.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.