Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday’s games
It is a somewhat bittersweet feeling as I loved recommending those guys, but it opens the door for new players to emerge and I’ve found some gems who are definitely too widely available given how well they’re playing.
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Alex Young (L), rostered in 2% of ESPN leagues, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: Young is my No. 1 pitcher recommendation despite his roster rate being far and away the lowest of the three guys included here. He’s been ramping up after starting the season in the bullpen with 63 and 86 pitches in first two starts of the season so he should be ready to push toward 100 and hopefully finish at least five innings this time around. The Rockies are back on their typical road woes with the lowest wOBA in the league at just .261, 10 points clear of the Pirates in the 29th. You can also consider holding Young all week as he’s lined up to get a start against the Giants over the weekend.
Spencer Turnbull (R), 35%, Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: Turnbull is coming off a rough start against the other Chicago team last week, but I’m still rolling with him in this relatively difficult matchup because his core skills are still there. He’s walking too many guys of late with four in each of the last two starts, but he limits hits well (.213 opponent AVG), keeps the ball on the ground, and misses a lot of bats when he’s really cooking.
Cristian Javier (R), 43%, Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: Javier’s scintillating debut made him a big target on waiver wires as he allowed just one run on two hits and a walk with eight strikeouts against a strong Dodgers lineup. He’s been pretty solid since with two gems and two duds. Considering the two duds came at the American League-best Oakland Athletics (20-9) and Coors Field, he gets a some leeway there, especially since you shouldn’t have started him in the latter if not both. The Angels are a game matchup to be sure, but I’m going to trust Javier here, especially at home.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2020 statistics
Catcher — Joey Bart (R), 29%, San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (LHP Julio Urias): The big-time prospect has hit the ground running going 4-for-12 with 3 2B in his first 15 PA. Urias is no easy matchup for a veteran, let alone a rookie in his fifth game as a major leaguer, but Bart posted a 1.030 OPS against southpaws last year with 6 HR in 76 PA. Another couple of strong games and Bart’s roster rate will surge past 50%.
First Base — Mitch Moreland (L), 33%, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Chase Anderson): Moreland sits 7th at 1B on the Player Rater and yet he’s only rostered in a third of our leagues? I’m not sure I quite understand that. I get that he’s a platoon guy over his career – though he does have an .819 OPS in limited plate appearances against lefties this year – but he’s been so good against righties with a .333/.444/.867 line including 7 HR, 16 RBI, and 11 R in 54 PA.
Second Base — Jonathan Schoop (R), 27%, Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs (Undecided): We don’t fully know who will pitch here for the Cubs, but it’s looking like Jose Quintana has a real chance to be the starter and Schoop is an automatic start against a lefty. His OPS is north of .900 in three of the last four years against southpaws, including a .912 so far this season. A .268 BABIP seemed to be a major factor in his .646 OPS against lefties back in 2018, but he has a career .304 BABIP against them.
Third Base — Yandy Diaz (R), 49%, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (LHP Tommy Milone): Diaz is also someone we have to regularly consider when there is a lefty on the mound against the Rays. He has a career .288/.394/.446 line and popped 7 HR in 117 PA against them last year (35 HR per 600 PA). Milone has been pretty solid this year, but he’s held a major platoon split with righties toting a 236-point OPS advantage.
Shortstop — Willy Adames (R), 18%, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (LHP Tommy Milone): Doubling up on Rays because I just had to highlight that Adames should be on more rosters. Shortstop is remarkably deep, but I still see Adames as a rising star at the position. He closed 2019 with an .807 OPS in the second half and has carried that over with an .870 so far this year. Adames is definitely striking out too much at a 34% rate, but he’s walking at a career-high 13% rate and his hard-hit rate is up 13 points to 49%.
Corner Infield — Brad Miller (L), 6%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals (RHP Matt Harvey): Miller is running hot with a .308/.457/.615 line since joining the lineup on August 15th. He quietly dominated down the stretch with the Phillies last year, smacking 8 HR with an 1.139 OPS in September. Since the start of last year, Miller has a .946 OPS against righties in 179 PA. Harvey has a 123-point platoon split since 2016 with lefties holding an .892 OPS in 894 PA.
Middle Infield — Chris Taylor (R), 28%, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (RHP Johnny Cueto): Taylor is playing almost daily, starting in 25 of the team’s 30 games and playing some portion in 29 of them. His .771 OPS doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s been strong against righties at .845 and his 16% walk rate against them has fueled a .419 OBP.
Outfield — Brandon Nimmo (L), 39%, New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (Undecided): Miami’s starters for Tuesday’s doubleheader are uncertain, however they don’t have many lefty options that they could feasibly throw at Nimmo so I’m rolling him out for both games. He is torching righties to the tune of a .316/.494/.561 line with 3 HR in 77 PA this year and has a career .259/.402/.457 line against them in 902 PA.
Outfield — Nick Solak (R), 28%, Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea): Solak took a little while to get going with just .557 OPS in his first 12 games, but he’s raking of late with an .863 mark in his last 14 games. He’s no longer stuck at UT and is now close to adding 2B eligibility in addition to OF. Manaea is struggling to get batters out this year regardless of their handedness with righties up at a .321 AVG with 9 extra-base hits in 86 PA.
Outfield — Aaron Hicks (S), 31%, New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves (RHP Ian Anderson): A .235 BABIP is no doubt stifling Hicks’ AVG and has him down at .209, but he’s walking more (20%) than he’s striking out (17%) leading to a .369 OBP and I think he’s a safe bet to hit way better than .209 the rest of the year. He’s done his best work against righties the last three years with an .835 OPS so a chance to slot him in against a rookie righty works for me.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.