Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday’s games
Even in shallower leagues, a few of these guys are worth keeping well beyond just Tuesday.
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Brad Keller (R), rostered in 35% of ESPN leagues, Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: Keller has been on fire since returning from COVID-19 with a pair of shutout starts totaling 11 innings with 10 strikeouts and just five hits allowed. His sinker-slider combo has left the Cubs and Reds confounded, and now he faces the Reds again. The Reds have been essentially league average against righties with a .744 OPS that sits 15th in the league. While Keller’s strikeout rate is at 24% through these first two starts, there haven’t been any real changes, so he’s likely to move back toward his career 17% rate.
Tony Gonsolin (R), 9%, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Seattle Mariners: Gonsolin has gone fewer than five innings in each of his two starts, but he’s thrown 8 2/3 shutout innings with nine strikeouts and just six baserunners. We also saw an impressive 40-inning sample from Gonsolin last year during which he had a 2.92 ERA and 1.02 WHIP as a hybrid reliever. The Mariners offer a great opportunity for Gonsolin to stay hot, as they have just a .670 OPS against righties with a 24% strikeout rate. He might not last in the rotation beyond this start unless they keep a six-man rotation going, but he’s definitely worth spot starting here.
Zach Eflin (R), 8%, Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox: Eflin deserved better in his last outing against the Orioles when he gave up four runs in five innings. While the O’s do have a strong offense, they scored a couple of runs off a bloop hit that had a nice 69.3 mph exit velocity. The double right before that was at 71 mph. Despite the O’s being a difficult matchup — can’t believe I’m typing that sentence, but that’s 2020 in a nutshell — I’m still willing to run Eflin out there and hopefully get five or six innings of solid work with a good handful of strikeouts.
The Royals quietly have a top-10 bullpen ERA at 3.51 lending legitimate support to their upstart rotation, including Keller as well as rookies Brady Singer and Kris Bubic. Trevor Rosenthal, Scott Barlow, Greg Holland and Josh Staumont give Mike Matheny multiple options in the late innings.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2020 statistics
Catcher — Martin Maldonado (R), 17%, Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela): A sharp eye is driving Maldonado’s early season performance, as he’s walking 17% of the time, yielding a .381 OBP in 64 PA. He also has two homers and 15 RBIs, making him a useful backstop especially if you’ve been stuck with the top-tier guys who haven’t performed at all like Gary Sanchez and Mitch Garver.
First Base — Jesus Aguilar (R), 44%, Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (LHP David Peterson): Is it 2018? Aguilar looks a lot like his breakout form so far this year with a .286/.317/.536 line, 4 HR and 15 RBI in 63 PA. A major difference between this year and 2018 is his greatly improved strikeout rate. He’s fanning just 13% of the time, compared to a career 25% mark. I’m surprised he’s still so widely available at this point.
Second Base — Andres Gimenez (L), 14%, New York Mets at Miami Marlins (Undecided): If you need some stolen bases, Gimenez is your guy. He’s not doing much else, with just a .268/.305/.357 line, but his six SBs have him tied for the league lead with Jonathan Villar and Tommy Pham. With Robinson Cano and Amed Rosario back, his playing time isn’t guaranteed, but when he’s in the lineup, his speed plays.
Third Base — Alec Bohm (R), 22%, Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox (RHP Zack Godley): Bohm was called up over the weekend and should get every-day run with Scott Kingery struggling mightily thus far. The 23-year old super prospect is known for combining big-time power with the ability to make tons of contact. The Red Sox’s league-worst 6.03 ERA gives Bohm a great shot to hit the ground running in his big league career.
Shortstop — Jake Cronenworth (L), 2%, San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers (LHP Mike Minor): After capably filling in for Eric Hosmer, Cronenworth got the attention of Padres management and now seems to have a hold on the second-base job over Jurickson Profar (and now even Profar might be back in the mix with Pham’s hamate injury). Cronenworth is hitting a cool .306/.358/.592 with 2 HR in 53 PA so far. We haven’t seen the speed he had last year (12 SB in 406 PA), but the Padres are running a ton, with an MLB-high 24 SBs, so he’ll likely get in the mix soon.
Corner Infield — Rio Ruiz (L), 10%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Nate Pearson): Ruiz has been a key part of the O’s surprisingly standout offense. He already has six homers in 67 PA after hitting just 12 in 413 last year. He’s only hitting .246, but the power output has been too good to ignore. There aren’t many Orioles regulars still under our 50% threshold for Daily Notes, so we have to enjoy spot-starting Ruiz while we still can.
Middle Infield — Tommy La Stella (L), 34%, Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants (RHP Trevor Cahill): TLS is picking it up lately with a .324/.375/.514 line in his last 10 games (spanning 40 PA) with hits in eight of them. He’s handling righties this year with an .847 OPS and twice as many walks as strikeouts (6-to-3). Cahill has just 1 2/3 innings so far this year, but last year he allowed lefties to post a .950 OPS.
Outfield — Jesse Winker (L), 46%, Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brad Keller): Winker has been great this year, and I know we’re going against one of our pitcher selections, but there’s room for both to succeed. Winker has a brilliant .365/.484/.712 line with 5 HR, and the best part is that he’s been balanced against righties and lefties after struggling against southpaws in his career prior to 2020. Of course, he’s facing a righty on Tuesday, but even if they bring in a lefty reliever, he’s less likely to be replaced thanks to his 1.167 OPS against them.
Outfield — Ian Happ (S), 41%, Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon): I still don’t understand why Happ is so widely available. He’s been crushing all year with a 1.006 OPS, 3 HR and 1 SB in 71 PA. He’s toting an OBP north of .400 against both righties and lefties, which is giving him more playing time (he’s not an automatic sit vs. lefties now). He’s also moving up the lineup: After spending the early part of the season in the 9-hole, he’s now hitting sixth.
Outfield — Stephen Piscotty (R), 11%, Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Luke Weaver): Piscotty labored through a shortened season in 2019 with just a .720 OPS in 93 games. He’s looking a lot more like the 2018 version (.821 OPS) of himself so far this year, with a very nice 69 plate appearances during which he has hit .250/.324/.517 with 4 HR and 17 RBI, including two late-inning grand slams! Weaver is off to a really rough start, and until he shows signs of turning it around, you should start any hitter you can against him. He’s allowing a 1.162 OPS against righties in 34 PA so far.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.