Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday
Drew Smyly (L), rostered in 13% of ESPN leagues, Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals: Smyly is simply a better pitcher than most people realize. Clearly many are chalking up 2020 to a small sample size or the impact of Oracle Park, but Oracle played quite hitter-friendly last year, and Smyly was a guy who was underrated to begin with. His bad 2019 was severely impacted by the worst mix of opposing offenses and ballparks in his time with Texas, and he was actually quite (and predictably) good once he went to Philly. The matchup isn’t anything amazing today, but with many teams still rolling out weak fourth and fifth starters, he’s among the best, especially since the Nats could be without some of their better hitters like Kyle Schwarber due to COVID.
John Gant (R), 1.9%, St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Gant hasn’t started a game since 2018, but he’s done well in relief since then and had glowing reports out of Spring Training. You can’t ask for a better first matchup, going into one of the game’s elite pitchers’ park to face one of the worst offenses in MLB. He’s available basically everywhere but is a top 10 option on today’s slate.
Wade Miley (L), 0.3%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Wade Miley is gross, but he’s closer to a league average pitcher than the trainwreck his small sample 2020 indicates. It’s a tough run environment with great hitting weather and a strong hitters’ park, but he gets to face the Pirates, and that counts for something. This is one of the weaker offenses in baseball this year, and the composition of their 2021 lineup makes them a more strikeout-prone team than they were last year.
J.A. Happ (L), 6.6%, Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers: We’re scraping the bottom of the barrel here on a day where many teams are rolling out their stone worst starter, but you could do worse than J.A. Happ in a pinch. He’s an unspectacular but not a bad pitcher, league average in every sense of the word. In a plus matchup against a bottom-tier Tigers offense and in a better park than he’s called home in many, many years on the road in Comerica, he’s a perfectly fine streamer that should give you some volume without hurting your ratios.
With Liam Hendriks hitting the IL at the end of Spring Training, most assumed Toronto’s closer job would go to Jordan Romano. After pitching the 8th inning ahead of Julian Merryweather on Sunday as Merryweather collected his second save of the year, it seems safe to say the initial assumptions were wrong. Romano is still has triple the rostership as Merryweather, so there’s still time to go out and get the right guy.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Catcher — Stephen Vogt (L), 0.01%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (RHP German Marquez): If you can find a catcher with even a modicum of hitting talent and drop him into Coors Field, you’ll have yourself one of the top overall catcher plays of any day. Whether it’s Vogt or Carson Kelly here, there might not be a better catcher option outside of J.T. Realmuto today.
First Base — C.J. Cron (R), 75.8%, Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Luke Weaver): While not quite available in half of all leagues, it’s inexplicable that Cron isn’t universally rostered, so consider this your mandate to go pick him up and hold him and squeeze him forever if he’s available. The Statcast metrics have always been off the charts, and now in Coors Field THE BAT X projects him for a .270 BA and 30+ home runs this year.
Second Base — Josh Rojas (L), 3.1%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (RHP German Marquez): Josh Rojas has been the starter and leadoff hitter for Arizona with Nick Ahmed on the IL, and you can’t ask for a better spot than Coors Field to find a guy sub-5% rostered leadoff hitter. Sure, it’s German Marquez, but we can suck it up and deal with that given everything else going for Rojas.
Third Base — J.D. Davis (R), 18.1%, New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Chase Anderson): The Mets get a massive park upgrade going from one of the worst in baseball for hitting (Citi Field) to a top 10 one (Citizens Bank Park). The righty-righty matchup may not look ideal, but Chase Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher, making this a very favorable matchup for a lowly rostered hitter in one of the NL’s top offenses.
Shortstop — Kevin Newman (R), 5.8%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (LHP Wade Miley): Kevin Newman gets the same fantastic weather as Winker, and he gets the added benefit of a massive park upgrade. While Miley was recommended as a streaming option in his own right, he obviously is still plenty attackable. Newman has hit either second or fifth thus far this year, either one being a great spot for a streamer.
Corner Infield — Rowdy Tellez (L), 8.2%, Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (RHP Dane Dunning): Once George Springer returns, the Jays will have the best offense in the American League, and they’re still darn great in the meantime. Rowdy Roddy Tellez had an 81st percentile xwOBA and 99th percentile max exit velocity last season, and that kind of raw power should play well with the favorable weather today.
Middle Infield — Joey Wendle (L), 19.8%, Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (LHP Martin Perez): Fenway Park is the top hitters’ park in baseball apart from Coors, and the relative boost over pitcher-friendly Tropicana is a big one. Wendle may sit lefty-on-lefty, but if he plays he’d still be a fine option. If he’s on the bench, Willy Adames will almost certainly be in and is nearly as good.
Outfield — Avisail Garcia (R), 9.4%, Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (RHP Adbert Alzolay): Garcia is the top streaming option today, and should honestly be permanently rostered higher if he’s going to be a semi-regular middle-of-the-order starter. Unlucky in 2020, there is legit power in his bat, and he gets 10 mph winds blowing out in Wrigley today, which is like 40 mph in any other park.
Outfield — Jesse Winker (L), 42.5%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Trevor Cahill): Assuming he’s healthy and back in the lineup, Winker walks into a primo spot. He’s already one of the most underrated hitters in baseball, projecting for a top 25 wOBA in THE BAT X, and today he gets the hottest game on the slate at 73 degrees in his elite dinger park home digs. Aristides Aquino would be in elite play as well if he happens to be in the lineup.
Outfield — David Dahl (L), 17.3%, Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Tanner Roark): David Dahl never broke out as a Rockie, so it’s easy to understand why many have lost interest now that he’s with the Rangers. But he can still give you a league average BA with some pop and speed while hitting near the top of the order. It’s 79 degrees in Texas today, which means either the best hitting weather on the slate or nearly the best if they close the roof.