Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday
If you haven’t yet read my primer on how weather can give you a MASSIVE edge in fantasy baseball, be sure to check that out now, as it will help provide context for my player evaluations each week.
Here are Tuesday’s choices to bolster your fantasy squad, with everyone available in at least half of all ESPN leagues.
Brady Singer (R), 17%, Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians: Singer is the most talented of the sub-50% rostered pitching options today, and he gets a solid enough matchup on top. The Indians are a bottom-10 offense, and they take a big park hit going from Progressive to Kauffman today.
Yusei Kikuchi (L), 45%, Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics: Kikuchi has made real gains this season, adding nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball and maintaining the nearly 3 mph gain he showed last year. The 4.41 ERA is nothing special, but the 3.85 xFIP is quite good. He gets a tough-ish matchup today against a good A’s offense, but he faces them in a strong pitchers’ park with the best pitching weather of the slate.
Mitch Keller (R), 3%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: Keller faces a very weak Cubs offense that is one of the most strikeout-prone in baseball. They have enough power to do occasional damage, but generally they are not very threatening. They also take a big park downgrade, especially in terms of power, going into PNC today.
Reynaldo Lopez (R), 9%, Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: We’re stretching a bit for a fourth option here, but Reynaldo is fine enough if you’re desperate. The Reds take a little bit of a park downgrade leaving Great American today, and they’ve been rolling out lineups with some holes in it due to injuries of late.
Bullpen: We have a double-header today, which means an extra opportunity for any reliever you stream to actually pitch. It helps that one of the teams in the game are one of the worst offenses in baseball and also one of the most strikeout-heavy. Streaming a Mets reliever against the Marlins looks like a sharp move. Closer Edwin Diaz is available in 6% of ESPN leagues, but assuming he’s gone in yours, Jeurys Familia (sub-1%) is likely the guy you want to be targeting here. Aaron Loup (3%) or Trevor May (7%) would also be fine. It’s possible the Mets use Loup as an opener in one of these two games, which would make him most appealing given the guaranteed appearance.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Mitch Garver (R), 30%, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers (LHP Tyler Alexander): Garver faces a weak lefty with a huge platoon split today, making him easily the best catcher stream on the slate and one of the best overall options. Miguel Sano is also a great play if available in your league.
First Base — Lewin Diaz (L), 1%, Miami Marlins at New York Mets (RHP Marcus Stroman): The Marlins gets a double-header today, and Diaz has started 16 of the last 17 games, so there’s a strong chance he plays both halves of the double-header today. That kind of volume would make him one of the top plays on the slate.
Second Base — Enrique Hernandez (R), 52%, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (LHP Bruce Zimmermann): Hernandez gets a park upgrade in terms of home runs and faces one of the weakest-projecting pitchers in MLB. Zimmermann also happens to have a huge platoon split, which makes the right-handed Hernandez an elite play.
Third Base — Evan Longoria (R), 35%, San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Luke Weaver): Longo simply remains too low-rostered given his talent level. Weaver has struggled mightily since coming off the DL, and third base is fairly shallow today, so Longo is a good choice.
Shortstop — Willy Adames (R), 43%, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Adam Wainwright): Adames’s rostership hasn’t risen nearly enough since coming off the IL a week or so ago. He’s one of the more valuable shortstops available in fantasy and is still available in more than half of leagues. Even against a solid opposing pitcher, he’s still one of the best choices.
Corner Infield — Ryan Zimmerman (R), 1%, Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies (LHP Kyle Freeland): The Nats are in Coors Field today against a lefty with a wide platoon split, so any righty in the lineup makes for a good choice. Zimm starts almost exclusively against lefties and ought to be in there today. Lane Thomas leading off is also an elite choice.
Middle Infield — Brendan Rodgers (R), 27%, Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin): There’s a lefty going on the other side of Coors as well, and Rodgers will hold the platoon advantage. Corbin has really struggled this season, and Coors Field is no antidote. Garrett Hampson is also a great play if in the lineup.
Outfield — Brandon Nimmo (L), 38%, New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (LHP Trevor Rogers): The Mets get a double-header today, and Nimmo has been the only outfielder to play every day of late. Even against a lefty in Rogers for one of the games, it seems fairly likely he’ll be in the lineup, since he has started against the last three lefties the Mets have faced. Volume is king.
Outfield — Akil Baddoo (L), 24%, Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (RHP Cory Gearrin): Baddoo has shown a great mix of power and speed this year, and today he faces a bottom-three pitcher on the slate in Gearrin who also happens to have a very large platoon split. Leading off, Baddoo is a great choice.
Outfield — Ben Gamel (L), 1%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Alec Mills): If you need an option that will almost certainly be available in your league, Gamel would be the best option. Mills is a borderline bottom-five pitcher on the slate, Gamel will hold the platoon and home field advantages, and he’s a fine enough option.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.