Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday
Here are Tuesday’s choices to bolster your fantasy squad, with everyone available in at least half of all ESPN leagues.
Logan Gilbert (R), rostered in 53% of ESPN leagues, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: Gilbert doesn’t quite crack the 50% threshold, but he projects as the top option of the entire day at any rostership, essentially tied with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, so if he’s out there you have to go get him. He’s a talented young pitcher in a great matchup, facing a bottom-three Rangers offense that takes a sizeable park hit, plus this game has some of the best pitching weather of the day.
Steven Matz (L), 43%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: Matz is particularly intriguing if you need wins. This game is part of a seven-inning double-header, which means Matz will effectively pitch deeper into the game than he would in a normal nine-inning stint and will stand a greater chance of taking home a W. It’s not the best spot for strikeouts, but it’s a weak Angels offense that will help with ratios.
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Jake Odorizzi (R), 22%, Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies aren’t quite a bottom-five offense anymore following a trade deadline where they kept Trevor Story and C.J. Cron, but this is still a very weak offense that is generally quite strikeout-prone. They’re significantly worse outside of Coors, and the closed roof in Houston means some of the best “weather” of the day for pitching.
J.A. Happ (L), 7%, St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates traded off one of their best hitters (Adam Frazier) at the trade deadline, which makes them both worse and more strikeout-friendly. This is a big park upgrade over Happ’s previous home in Minnesota, and he gets to face a pitcher instead of a DH now in the National League, which means he’s actually better than his previous statistical baselines make him look.
Bullpen:
While not technically a starter, Reiss Knehr (less than 1% of ESPN leagues) would actually be the best option after Gilbert today, assuming he pitches. This will be a “bullpen” day for San Diego with Craig Stammen likely to start the game as an opener and Knehr likely to come in behind him. There is no assurance that’s what happens, but it seems a pretty safe bet. Facing the weak Miami Marlins (who also happen to be the most strikeout-heavy on most slates lately) with some of the coolest temperatures of the day, Knehr projects as the fifth best starter of the whole day. He’s a fine consolation prize if Gilbert is not available.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Mitch Garver (R), 38%, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (LHP Dallas Keuchel): I write up Garver a lot, and it’s because he’s a legitimately good hitter by catcher standards. Today he gets the platoon advantage against a lefty that can struggle with power to righties, making him the top available option.
First Base — Patrick Wisdom (R), 32%, Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (LHP Aaron Ashby): We’re looking at mid-to-high-80s temperatures and 12 mph winds blowing out to dead center in Wrigley today, so this is easily the best spot for offense. Wisdom will hold the platoon advantage, making him the top stream of the day.
Second Base — Cesar Hernandez (S), 53%, Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (RHP Griffin Jax): Hernandez and Adam Engel, whoever ends up batting second, are both great streams today. Minnesota is the second-hottest game on the slate, and Jax represents a favorable matchup for stolen bases.
Third Base — J.D. Davis (R), 20%, New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (RHP Paolo Espino): Espino is the weakest pitcher on the slate and the only one with a context-neutral ERA over 5.00 according to THE BAT, and Davis is the most widely-available mostly-regular player for the Mets. Jonathan Villar would also be a solid option.
Shortstop — Amed Rosario (R), 38%, Cleveland vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea): Manaea is a good pitcher, but shortstop is always thin and this is a massive park downgrade for the lefty. Between the park and the platoon advantage, Rosario is a fine play.
Corner Infield — Rowdy Tellez (L), 16%, Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (LHP Justin Steele): Tellez needs to be mentioned because, even though it’s lefty-vs-lefty, he’d still be among the days best streamers if he cracks the lineup today given the Wrigley wind. Kolten Wong would also be an elite play, and he’s more likely to be in there. If Tellez isn’t and you need another CI, try David Bote or Miguel Sano.
Middle Infield — Jazz Chisholm (L), 50%, Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres (RHP Reiss Knehr): While Knehr is a great stream himself today, he does project as the second-least-talented pitcher on the slate. Jazz should be leading off with the platoon advantage, so it’s perfectly fine to play him too.
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Outfield — Justin Upton (R), 22%, Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (LHP Steven Matz and RHP Ross Stripling): The Angels and Jays play a double-header today, which means extra volume for anybody who plays both games. I don’t see anyone from the Jays side who is likely to (Corey Dickerson maybe), but Upton seems a good bet for the Angels. An extra two-to-four at-bats would put him as the best play of the day from volume alone.
Outfield — Anthony Santander (S), 37%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Casey Mize): Mize gets a park downgrade, particularly in terms of home runs, going into Baltimore today, Santander projects as one of the better outfield options today.
Outfield — Jarren Duran (L), 13%, Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Luis Patino): Duran generally hits first or second against righties, and today he faces a pitcher getting a big park downgrade going into the elite-hitting confines of Fenway.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.