Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday
If you haven’t yet read my primer on how weather can give you a massive edge in selecting your fantasy baseball lineups, be sure to check that out now, as it will help provide context for my player evaluations each week.
With all that in mind, here are Tuesday’s choices to bolster your fantasy squad, with everyone available in at least half of all ESPN leagues.
Shane McClanahan (L), rostered in 26% of ESPN leagues, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: McClanahan is an up-and-coming young pitcher with talent exceeding his so-so 4.05 ERA. His xFIP stands at 3.24, and THE BAT projects him for a 3.81 ERA going forward. The matchup today is a good one against a below-average Orioles offense taking a major park downgrade going into Tropicana Field.
Josiah Gray (R), 3% of ESPN leagues, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: Gray hasn’t been officially announced as the starter, and it’s possible the Dodgers will end up going with a bullpen game. Still, if he were to start, he’d be worth a pickup and stash if only to see if he sticks around. THE BAT projects him as the 42nd-best pitcher in baseball before he’s even thrown a single MLB inning, and the matchup against an overrated Giants club is a fine setup for his first start.
Tarik Skubal (L), 35%, Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers: I’m not totally buying what Skubal has been doing (3.78 ERA since the beginning of May), but even if you expect regression, this is still a strong enough spot to stream him. The Rangers are a bottom-five offense and they’re weaker against lefties since the team’s only above-average hitters (Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe) are both left-handed.
Mike Minor (L), 23%, Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers: Minor gets a nice league shift going from the AL (and the DH) to the NL (and pitchers hitting). He also gets a sneaky park upgrade, particularly in the strikeout department. Miller Park boosts strikeouts 10% over Kauffman, and the Brewers lineup itself is often quite strikeout-prone.
Bullpen: With the weather in most games today sitting in the 80s, the dome environment of Tropicana Field puts it as the second-best of the day in terms of final air density. The Trop is also a top-three pitchers’ park in baseball, making this a great pitching environment. The Rays get to face the mediocre Orioles offense, so streaming relievers here could be the move today. Closer Diego Castillo is rostered in just 61% of leagues so, if he’s available, he’s the best choice. After all, he’s Tampa Bay’s best reliever and will give you a shot at a save. If he’s already taken, Drew Rasmussen would be the clear next-best choice. He’s been the most-frequently used arm of late, and is rostered in less than 1% of ESPN leagues.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — John Hicks (R), 2%, Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (LHP Tarik Skubal): The preferred catcher stream is literally any catcher playing in Coors today (starting with Tom Murphy). However, for the sake of variety, Hicks would also be a solid enough option. Skubal has a big platoon split, and Hicks has been seeing increased time at catcher since Jose Trevino got hurt.
First Base — C.J. Cron (R), 47%, Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners (LHP Marco Gonzales): Cron is the top option out of anyone playing at Coors today, and it remains a mystery as to why he remains so low-rostered. It also remains a mystery as to why Colorado took so long to bump him up in the order. He’s the best hitter on the team not named Trevor Story and he has now hit fourth or fifth in four of the last five games, so that will help. Plus, he even gets the platoon advantage!
Second Base — Ty France (R), 34%, Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies (RHP German Marquez): France is a good and widely-available option on the other side of Coors. Marquez is a solid pitcher and the Mariners are, well, the Mariners, but Coors is a big deal and France can help you fill a tough-to-fill position. Garrett Hampson would be preferable if available, though.
Third Base — J.D. Davis (R), 32%, New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (LHP Wade Miley): Davis is back, healthy, and in the Mets lineup. His rostership is likely to rise as more people figure this out. Today he gets the platoon advantage and a massive park upgrade going into Great American Ball Park, the third-best park in baseball for overall offense and No. 1 for homers.
Shortstop — Didi Gregorius (L), 57%, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees (RHP Domingo German): Although Gregorius is a bit above the 50% threshold, shortstop is tough today. If he’s out there for you, he’s your guy. The Phillies will add a DH as they travel to Yankee Stadium, which is great for left-handed power. Throw in the platoon advantage and German’s struggles (albeit perhaps ones influenced by bad luck), and Gregorius becomes your best stream. If he’s not out there, try Willy Adames, Miguel Rojas, or J.P. Crawford.
Corner Infield — Joey Votto (L), 37%, Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets (RHP Robert Stock): Stock hasn’t officially been announced as the pitcher yet, but he seems the likely choice. Plus, Votto has once again become far too widely-available for a player of his talent level. Sure, he’s old and boring, but he’s also very good. Today, he’s at home in an elite park against one of the weaker pitchers on the slate.
Middle Infield — Josh Harrison (R), 28%, Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (LHP Trevor Rogers): Rogers is a good pitcher, but middle infield thins out quickly today. Harrison will hold the platoon advantage, Rogers will take a big park hit, and the weather is very hitter-friendly. It’s tied for the second-hottest game at 86 degrees and there are 5-mph winds blowing out to left field.
Outfield — Adam Duvall (R), 51%, Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (RHP Paolo Espino): On the other side of this game, Duvall is the best stream on the slate (except for perhaps Cron). Espino is the weakest pitcher on the slate, the weather is great, and Duvall gets a big park upgrade.
Outfield — Joc Pederson (L), 53%, Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres (Undecided): Like Duvall, Joc is slightly above the 50% threshold, but it’s close enough — and he’s good enough so that he has to be mentioned. Recently acquired by Atlanta to replace Ronald Acuna Jr., he was immediately inserted into the leadoff spot this weekend, even against two left-handers. With the chance he might get to face an inexperienced Reiss Knehr, this is a nice spot for the former member of the Cubs.
Outfield — Gregory Polanco (L), 2%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Taylor Widener): If Duvall and Pederson aren’t out there for you, Polanco surely will be. He’s a batting average liability, but the power and speed are both quite good. Plus, today he gets a huge park upgrade. PNC is a killer for left-handed power, with Chase Field being considerably better in that regard.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.