Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday
With all that in mind, here are Tuesday’s choices to help bolster your fantasy squad, with everyone rostered in roughly 50% or fewer ESPN leagues.
James Kaprielian (R), rostered in 58% of ESPN leagues, Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: Pitching today is rough, so I’m stretching that roster threshold a bit here. I’m sure you’ll forgive me, as there is a pretty sizable drop-off after Kaprielian. The rookie faces a bottom-tier Rangers offense that also takes a significant park and weather hit going into Oakland today, which (naturally) projects as the coldest game of the day. It should be the only game in the 60s — and it’s in the low 60s neighborhood at that.
Carlos Martinez (R), 8%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Martinez has been all sorts of bad this year, but projection systems aren’t ready to completely give up on him just yet, given his strong history. Today he gets a good matchup against a weak (and likely Ketel Marte-less) Diamondbacks offense that takes a big park hit going from Chase Field to Busch Stadium. Sure, Martinez could get blown up, well, just because — but, more likely, he’ll be serviceable in this spot today.
J.C. Mejia (R), 1%, Cleveland vs. Detroit Tigers: Mejia isn’t necessarily considered to be a legit prospect, but THE BAT thinks he’s a league-average starter, and he’s been quite good so far for Cleveland. The 4.94 ERA is rough, but the 3.58 xFIP and 3.27 FIP portend better things ahead. Today he faces the awful and very strikeout-prone Tigers, making him a solid streaming option.
Vince Velasquez (R), 5%, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: Velasquez is a highly volatile pitcher but, ultimately, he’s a league-average pitcher with a well above-average strikeout rate. Today he faces a bottom-third Marlins offense, which is generally one of the five or so most strikeout-heavy offenses on any given day. They get a big park upgrade, but this still a fine spot to stream Velasquez.
Bullpen: The best spot for pitching today is in Oakland, given that it is the third-best pitchers’ park in baseball. Plus, today it has easily the best weather. On top of that, the Athletics get a weak opposing offense. Closer Lou Trivino (61% rostered) may even still be available in your league, giving you both strong ratio production and a chance at a save. Even if he’s already rostered, though, you can still stream Jake Diekman. Diekman (23%) is, in fact, the better pitcher when it comes to both ERA and strikeouts, and he’s available in the majority of leagues.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
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Catcher — Yan Gomes (R), 8%, Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Rich Hill): If Mike Zunino isn’t available in your league, Gomes is the top catching option. Hill has been great this year, but he still allows homers. Gomes has power and will hold the platoon advantage.
First Base — C.J. Cron (R), 55%, Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Chase De Jong): Cron’s roster percentage is finally going up. He’s a bit above our threshold limit, but he’s so far and away the best option that he needs to be mentioned. He’s playing at Coors Field against the worst pitcher of the day, so you won’t find a better candidate to stream today.
Second Base — Cesar Hernandez (S), 32%, Cleveland vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Jose Urena): Urena is no De Jong, but he is the second weakest pitcher on the slate. He also gets a big downgrade going into an elite hitters’ park (Progressive Field) today. As such, both Hernandez and Amed Rosario make for fantastic middle infield streamers.
Third Base — Jonathan India (R), 51%, Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres (LHP Blake Snell): This isn’t about the 5.29 ERA, which is pretty meaningless. Snell is still an ace and the surface results will improve. But, he is entering baseball’s second-best park for offense and this game has the lowest air density, so that expected improvement may not arrive today. India will be leading off with the platoon advantage — and Snell’s split is a wide one — making him the top play at third base today.
Shortstop — Willy Adames (R), 18%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Zach Davies): Davies is a below-average pitcher who allows a lot of contact, which is the perfect profile for a high-power/high-strikeout hitter like Adames. The park will also help to boost that power.
Corner Infield — Michael Chavis (R), 1%, Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (RHP Brad Keller): Boston’s leadoff spot has been a revolving door of late, but we’ve seen either Chavis or Danny Santana in that position in five of the last six games. Both are just 1% rostered, so if either is leading off today, they’d be a strong option at home against a below-average pitcher.
Middle Infield — Ty France (R), 40%, Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (LHP Robbie Ray): Ray has been great this season, but the control is going to regress at some point. He’s also a left-hander with a wide split, to go along with a home run problem. France will hold the platoon advantage and gets a big park upgrade.
Outfield — Gregory Polanco (L), 3%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies (RHP German Marquez): Outside of Cron, there isn’t a better stream today than Polanco. He’s a boom-or-bust type guy, but he also has a strong combination of power and speed. Today he takes that skillset into Coors Field.
Outfield — Adam Duvall (R), 45%, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Vince Velasquez): Velasquez is a solid pitcher, but he does give up home runs. Duvall has plenty of power and he gets a massive HR park upgrade, going from the one of the worst parks (Marlins Park) to one of the best (Citizens Bank). It’s also expected to be 90 degrees here.
Outfield — Manuel Margot (R), 48%, Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals (RHP Joe Ross): The Rays get a nice park bump today in addition to the day’s second best hitting weather (89 degrees with 8-mph winds blowing out to left field). Facing a below-average pitcher in Ross, you can find some quality streams from Tampa Bay today.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.