Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday
If you’d like to learn more about how weather can give you a massive edge in fantasy baseball (and you should!), then be sure to check out my article all about how you can use weather to your advantage.
Here are Tuesday’s choices to bolster your fantasy squad, with everyone available in at least half of all ESPN leagues.
Mike Minor (L), rostered in 41% of ESPN leagues, Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: With no true aces going today, Minor is not only the best widely-available pitcher but the second-best of the whole day facing the hapless Tigers. That’s not going to bode well for the rest of your options if he isn’t available, but you have to take what the slate gives you.
Sammy Long (L), 7%, San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Long isn’t generally considered a top prospect and he doesn’t have much upper-level experience, but all he’s ever done is crush in the minors. He projects as a league-average pitcher right out of the gate, and he gets a solid enough matchup today against a below-average (if low-strikeout) D’backs squad taking a big park downgrade. Plus, it’s one of just a handful of games in the 60s.
Patrick Corbin (L), 49%, Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Corbin has been an absolute mess this year, and the possibility certainly exists that he’s the weird outlier where something is really wrong, but peripherally he’s been okay. His xFIP is 4.51 despite the 6.21 ERA, and some regression has to be expected. At the very least, he gets a great matchup today against baseball’s second-worst offense.
J.A. Happ (L), 8%, Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners: Happ also gets a matchup against a bottom-fvie offense, and one that is above-average for strikeouts to boot. Throw in a park upgrade and the best pitching weather of the day, and Happ is a perfectly fine streamer if all else fails.
Bullpen
The best pitching matchup today belongs to the Minnesota Twins. Big park upgrade going into Seattle, best pitching weather of the day, weak Seattle offense, good strikeout spot in terms of both offense and park. The Twins bullpen isn’t especially strong, but Taylor Rogers is the lone exception, and he’s elite. He’s also their closer, so he may be rostered in your league, but he’s out there in nearly half of them (54% rostered), and so if he’s available snatch him up here. Elite spot for ratios and strikeouts, plus the chance at a save. If he’s unavailable, maybe try to grab someone from the Reds. Good park upgrade for them, good weather, strikeout-prone offense. Unfortunately Tejay Antone is now on the IL, but Sean Doolitte or Ryan Hendrix would work.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Victor Caratini (S), 3%, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez): The Padres are far and away the top offense today going into Coors Field against the third-worst pitcher on the slate, so streaming any hitter in the lineup will be a strong move. If it’s not Caratini at catcher, take Webster Rivas. Ha-Seong Kim, Jorge Mateo, whoever is available in your league, go get.
First Base — C.J. Cron (R), 43%, Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (RHP Yu Darvish): On the other side of Coors is a much worse offense against a much better pitcher, but it’s still Coors. Cron has been ice cold of late, but there’s a ton of talent still here, and his seasonal numbers are still great. I have no issue streaming him here.
Second Base — Enrique Hernandez (R), 26%, Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves (LHP Tucker Davidson): Atlanta has some of the better hitting weather of the day at 85 degrees with 10 mph wind to CF, and Hernandez will be leading off with the platoon advantage against a below-average pitcher. Hunter Renfroe would also be a good choice from the Sox today.
Third Base — Jonathan Villar (S), 33%, New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Alec Mills): Mills is the second-worst pitch of the day and also represents a solid stolen base matchup, making the Mets leadoff hitter, Villar, a solid stream.
Shortstop — Amed Rosario (R), 42%, Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Matt Harvey): The only pitcher worse than Mills today is Harvey, who is even easier to steal on than Mills. Rosario can bounce around the order, but especially if he’s in there hitting second today, you can’t do much better at shortstop. Outside of Coors this is the best hitting park of the day.
Corner Infield — Ryan Zimmerman (R), 3%, Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (LHP Tyler Anderson): Tyler Anderson is a bottom-five pitcher on this slate, and as a lefty will be facing 6 righties today. Zimmerman will hold the platoon advantage and should be hitting in the heart of a good, underrated lineup.
Middle Infield — Jonathan Schoop (R), 52%, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (LHP Mike Minor): Schoop also gets the platoon advantage today. He has to face one of the day’s better pitchers, but Minor is still an extreme flyball guy susceptible to the long-ball. That’s Schoop entire game, and while it makes him high variance, you won’t find a better bet for power at middle infield today.
Outfield — Adam Duvall (R), 24%, Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Kwang-hyun Kim): The Marlins get a decent park upgrade today and the fourth-hottest weather at 87 degrees. Kim is likely to be activated and may have some rust to shake off. Even if he’s sharp, he’s still a below-average pitcher with a wide platoon split, making Duvall a fantastic choice.
Outfield — Joc Pederson (L), 52%, Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (RHP Taijuan Walker): Walker’s 2.07 ERA is impressive, but his 4.08 xFIP much closer to his true talent level. That makes him basically an average-ish pitcher, and while that doesn’t make this a great matchup for Pederson, when you factor in his talent level and his power and his spot hitting leadoff, he’s one of the better streams.
Outfield — AJ Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Zach Eflin): Similar deal for A.J. Pollock, who is too talented to be so low-rostered. Especially hitting in such an elite lineup, Pollock just needs to be rostered in more leagues than he currently is, and even against a solid pitcher today he’s still one of the top options.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.