Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday’s games
Here’s a look at the day’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
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Griffin Canning (R), rostered in 22% of ESPN leagues, Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners: Canning was generating plenty of offseason buzz before elbow issues cropped up in late February, but now he’s healthy and looking sharp. Armed with a curve that gets lots of swings and misses and a slider that gets lots of grounders, Canning sports a 10.1 K/9 through two starts and is coming off an outing in which he limited the Astros to one run over five frames. The 24-year-old will get an easier test this time around, squaring off against a Mariners team that’s been below-average offensively (96 wRC+) with a 26.9% K rate that’s third-worst in baseball. Grab Canning for Thursday’s start and consider keeping him around if he performs well.
Kyle Freeland (L), 43%, Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: Streaming pitchers in Coors Field always carries some risk, no matter the opponent. That said, a matchup against the Giants, who sport one of the most non-threatening lineups in baseball, is about as good as it gets. For his part, Freeland has pitched well in back-to-back starts, including throwing six shutout innings against the Padres at Coors his last time out. What’s most interesting is how Freeland has altered his pitch mix in the early going. After opposing batters hit .330 against his four-seamer in 2019, Freeland has significantly dropped its usage in 2020, instead relying more on his changeup and slider. Of course, we can’t simply ignore the Coors factor, but despite his struggles in 2019, Freeland posted a 3.72 ERA at Coors in 2017 and a 2.40 ERA at Coors in 2018, so there’s reason to buy into the prime matchup.
Taijuan Walker (R), 6%, Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: Walker put himself back on the fantasy radar with an impressive outing against Oakland his last time out, spinning seven shutout frames while allowing only one hit and two walks with eight strikeouts. There’s still plenty of uncertainty here for a guy who made only four combined starts in 2018 and 2019. Still only 27, Walker has lost a couple of ticks on his fastball from when he first came into the league, so he has to rely more on his command to be effective. An Angels club that rarely strikes out (20.6%) and boasts the best walk rate in the American League (12.4%) certainly poses a legitimate threat for those hoping for a repeat of the right-hander’s last outing. However, on a shortened Thursday slate, Walker warrants being part of the streaming conversation.
The Cubs’ closer situation is a mess. One thing that appears to be clear, however, is that Craig Kimbrel can’t be counted on in the ninth inning. He’s now allowed eight baserunners and six runs in just 1 2/3 innings. The right-hander’s most recent appearance came on Tuesday, when he was asked to secure a three-run lead against the Royals. He allowed two runs and recorded only one out before being replaced by Kyle Ryan, who got the final two outs for his first save of the season. While Ryan got the save on Tuesday, Rowan Wick closed out the Cubs’ two previous wins and likely wasn’t available on Tuesday after pitching two of the three previous days. Wick, available in 88% of leagues, looks like the arm to own in the Cubs’ bullpen right now.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Projected game scores
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2019 statistics
Catcher — Danny Jansen (R), 13%, Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves (RHP Touki Toussaint): Toussaint has yet to have prolonged success at the big league level. While his career 10.2 K/9 over 33 appearances is enticing, the 5.9 BB/9 is not. Jansen, who sports a .377 wOBA versus righties in the early going, possesses strong plate discipline and is a good bet to reach base multiple times if Toussaint is his usual, erratic self.
First Base — Jesus Aguilar (R), 8%, Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles (LHP Wade LeBlanc): The Marlins finally returned to action on Tuesday, and Aguilar picked up right where he left off, going yard for the third time in four games. The slugger should continue his hot hitting against LeBlanc, who surrendered a .296/.340/.516 slash line to righty batters in 2019.
Second Base — Nick Madrigal (R), 29%, Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers (RHP Freddy Peralta): Called up by the White Sox on Friday, Madrigal has an elite ability to make contact. Across three minor league levels in 2019, Madrigal struck out just 16 times in 532 plate appearances. There’s no power here, but a guy who always makes contact and has great speed on the basepaths is someone worth targeting if you’re falling behind in stolen bases. Keep an eye on Madrigal’s status, though, as he exited Tuesday’s contest with a left shoulder injury.
Third Base — Evan Longoria (R), 12%, San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (LHP Kyle Freeland): Longoria got a late start due to an oblique injury, but he’s bounced back strong, hitting .333/.364/.611 with a homer in his first week of action. He gets the platoon advantage here, along with a massive park upgrade, swapping Oracle Park for Coors Field.
Shortstop — Freddy Galvis (S), 24%, Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians (RHP Carlos Carrasco): After belting a career-high 23 dingers in 2019, Galvis has already popped a pair of homers this season. Carrasco presents a tough matchup, but all of Galvis’ damage in 2020 has come against righties (.333/.462/.714). You can do worse than take a chance on a hot bat in a dangerous Reds lineup.
Corner Infield — Ryan O’Hearn (L), 2%, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Tyler Chatwood): O’Hearn has yet to fulfill the promise he displayed when he clubbed 12 homers in 44 games with the Royals back in 2018. That said, he’s batting .318/.348/.455 since returning from the IL, and he has a history of displaying good power with strong walk rates. O’Hearn is a nice under-the-radar target when a right-hander is on the mound.
Middle Infield — Shed Long Jr. (L), 6%, Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Griffin Canning): Stolen bases have been hard to come by this season, so grabbing an extra steal here and there can pay big dividends. Long already has three steals this season and often bats near the top of the order when the Mariners are facing a righty.
Outfield — Avisail Garcia (R), 53%, Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox (LHP Gio Gonzalez): With Ryan Braun sidelined, Garcia has batted cleanup the last two games, behind Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura. That’s a good place to be when you have the platoon advantage in a hitter-friendly park against an erratic hurler like Gonzalez.
Outfield — Ian Happ (S), 37%, Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brad Keller): Happ has spent most of this season batting ninth, but he’s been clobbering the ball to the tune of a .431 wOBA through 11 games. Nearly all of that damage has come against right-handed pitching (.318/.375/.818). Happ should continue that success against Keller, the lowest-ranked hurler on the slate.
Outfield — Shin-Soo Choo (L), 43%, Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (RHP Mike Fiers): At 38 years old, Choo is still showing power (two homers so far) and posting elite walk rates (12.5%) while batting atop the Rangers’ lineup versus right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Fiers has experienced a big velocity drop this season and looks vulnerable right now.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.