Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday
Here’s a look at Thursday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
JT Brubaker (R), rostered in 23% of ESPN leagues, Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers: Brubaker has attracted the attention of fantasy managers by putting up a 1.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 over his first three outings. While we can’t necessarily take hot starts like this at full value, Brubaker’s stuff looks legit. His four-seamer has been unhittable so far, as he’s thrown the pitch 59 times this season and has yet to allow a single hit. Against a Tigers offense that has put up a bottom-three wOBA (.283) and a 27.9% strikeout rate, Brubaker is clearly one of Thursday’s top streamers.
Aaron Sanchez (R), 4%, San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: The early returns from Sanchez have been strong. The right-hander has produced a 2.45 ERA over three starts, allowing two or fewer runs in each outing. Although his four-seamer is sitting just 90.5 mph this season, compared to 93.6 mph back in 2019, he’s dialed back its usage considerably. It was his most used pitch in 2019, and it’s his least-used offering in 2021. Sanchez is now relying more on his curve, which has been his most-effective pitch. Have confidence firing him up against an unintimidating Marlins offense that is now without Starling Marte.
Alex Cobb (R), 16%, Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros: Cobb’s 4.63 ERA in two starts doesn’t particularly stand out, but his 13.1 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 do make you take notice. The 33-year-old is having success by riding his splitter (nicknamed The Thing), throwing it 45.4% of the time and garnering a 46.7% whiff rate. A matchup against Houston obviously isn’t ideal, but the Astros offense has been fairly mediocre against righties this season, registering a 93 wRC+ and .290 wOBA, which ranks bottom-10 in baseball. At the very least, it’s worth tracking Cobb to see if he can build off his early-season success.
Jose Urena (R), 1%, Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: This recommendation has more to do with the matchup than the skills. Although the Pirates lineup has been only slightly below average this season, this is clearly one of the weakest offenses in baseball, especially with Ke’Bryan Hayes still sidelined. Urena certainly carries some volatility as a streaming option. However, he’s been missing bats (10.4 K/9) and getting grounders (56.4%) in the early going, and his 3.91 FIP and 3.61 xFIP suggest he’s pitched better than his 5.52 ERA indicates. Urena is coming off a strong seven-inning, two-run performance against Oakland, and the hope is that he can produce another quality start in this favorable spot.
Bullpen: The Tigers bullpen hasn’t received many save chances this season, but a matchup against the Pirates could very well present a ninth-inning opportunity. Bryan Garcia, available in 95% of ESPN leagues, leads Detroit in saves and secured the team’s last save last Wednesday, so he’s a good bet to get the call should there be a lead to secure in the ninth inning.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2020 statistics
Catcher — Carson Kelly (R), 26%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Jeff Hoffman): Kelly has been the No. 8 catcher in fantasy, according to the ESPN Player Rater, yet he’s available in nearly 75% of leagues. The Arizona backstop is hitting .440/.537/.767 this season with three homers in 11 games, and he gets a nice park upgrade in Great American Ballpark.
First Base — Joey Votto (L), 42%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Taylor Widener): Although Votto didn’t garner much attention on draft day, he’s showing he still has something left in the tank. Not only has the 37-year-old drilled three homers in his last six games, but his Statcast page is painted red, as he ranks in the 75th percentile in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Second Base — David Bote (R), 2%, Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets (LHP Joey Lucchesi): Bote is hitting just .171/.286/.400 on the season, but he’s been very unlucky. Despite a 50% hard-hit rate, his BABIP sits at just .154. Bote should experience some positive regression soon, and that could start against Lucchesi, who has below-average stuff.
Third Base — Colin Moran (L), 29%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers (RHP Jose Urena): One of this season’s pleasant surprises, Moran is batting .298/.385/.579 with four dingers and 13 RBI in 16 games. He draws the platoon edge against Urena, who has been much more vulnerable to lefty batters in his career.
Shortstop — Miguel Rojas (R), 17%, Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants (RHP Aaron Sanchez): While Rojas has yet to leave the yard this season, he has more walks than strikeouts and has already pilfered three bases. After spending most of his time batting seventh versus righties, he moved up to the No. 2 spot on Tuesday with Starling Marte sidelined, giving him more chances to rack up counting stats.
Corner Infield — Bobby Dalbec (R), 14%, Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (RHP Justin Dunn): After mashing the ball in Spring Training, it’s been slow going for Dalbec in the regular season, as he’s still seeking his first home run. That said, the young slugger boasts an elite 20% barrel rate (94% percentile), so his luck should turn around soon.
Middle Infield — Enrique Hernandez (R), 33%, Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (RHP Justin Dunn): Don’t be fooled by Dunn’s 3.72 ERA. Through 9 2/3 innings, he sports a decent 8.4 K/9, but also a 9.3 walk rate. The Red Sox offense should do plenty of damage in this matchup, and Hernandez, who has already clubbed three home runs, will be the table-setter.
Outfield — David Peralta (L), 46%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Jeff Hoffman): Peralta has always done most of his damage against righties, demonstrated by his career .211 ISO against them. He finds himself in an appealing spot on Thursday, squaring off against a hurler who allows lots of loud contact in a homer-friendly park.
Outfield — Taylor Trammell (L), 7%, Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta): It’s hard to get past Trammell’s 40.4% strikeout rate, but it’s forgivable if you’re streaming him. After all, he offers both homer and stolen base potential, and he gets a nice park boost by trading in T-Mobile Park for Fenway Park.
Outfield — Austin Slater (R), 3%, San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins (LHP Daniel Castano): Slater has been playing regularly against both righties and lefties, but he gets a boost against southpaws, as he typically slots into the leadoff spot against them. The 28-year-old possess power, speed, and a strong walk rate, giving him plenty of upside against a soft-tosser like Castano.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.