Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday
Here’s a look at Thursday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Alex Cobb (R), rostered in 15% of ESPN leagues, Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers: Since returning from the injured list with right wrist inflammation, Cobb has held down two of baseball’s toughest lineups, allowing just one earned run across 11 2/3 innings against the White Sox and Astros. Combine those two outings with the four starts prior to his IL stint, and the right-hander owns a dominant 1.02 ERA over his last six turns. After facing the White Sox and Astros, Thursday’s matchup against Texas should be smooth sailing. After all, the Rangers have the worst offense in baseball since the All-Star break, registering an MLB-worst 76 wRC+ and 6.2% walk rate.
Joe Ryan (R), 22%, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: Ryan has made a strong impression since his promotion in early September. In four big-league starts, he’s produced a 2.45 ERA with a 10.2 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9, which included whiffing 11 batters in five frames against the Cubs his last time out. This is obviously an arm to keep an eye on long-term, but he’s also one of the top streaming options for Thursday’s slate. Although the Tigers offense has been better than you might expect, they’ve still been below average in the second half.
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Nick Pivetta (R), 40%, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: If you’re seeking strikeouts, Pivetta is one of your best bets on the slate. Not only does he boast a 10.0 K/9, but he gets to square off against an Orioles club that has struck out 24.8% of the time against right-handers this season, including a 25.7% clip in September. After a bit of a rough patch in August (5.27 ERA), Pivetta has bounced back with a 3.14 ERA in September. He also owns a 3.35 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore.
Tony Gonsolin (R), 27%, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: The Dodgers are still trying to overtake the Giants in the NL West, so while other teams that have clinched playoff berths may limit their starters in the final week, the Dodgers won’t be holding anything back. Despite the high walk rate (5.6 BB/9), Gonsolin owns a 3.00 ERA and 10.6 K/9 across 51 innings this season. He isn’t always pitching deep into games, but he’s delivered five innings in each of his last two starts, so there’s optimism for him to last long enough on Thursday to pick up a win against a crumbling Padres team that’s 6-17 in September.
Bullpen: If you’re trying to scrape together a few more saves before the season runs out, take a look at Pittsburgh’s Chris Stratton, who is available in 90% of ESPN leagues. The right-hander picked up his fifth save of the September on Tuesday night, and he could pick up another one on Thursday against a Cubs squad that’s lost nine of 10.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Mike Zunino (R), 33%, Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (RHP Lance McCullers Jr.): If you don’t have a stable option behind the plate and need power, there’s little reason not to scoop up Zunino and ride him the rest of the way. Zunino has cracked 32 homers on the season, second to only Salvador Perez at the catcher position, and he’s put up a .396 wOBA in September.
First Base — Bobby Dalbec (R), 28%, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (LHP Alexander Wells): Dalbec has been a frequenter of this space lately, but for good reason. He’s batting .319/.404/.756 with 13 homers and 37 RBI over his last 40 games, and on Thursday he gets the platoon edge against Wells, the owner of a 7.61 ERA over his first 10 big league appearances (seven starts).
Second Base — Luis Urias (R), 40%, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (LHP J.A. Happ): Happ has pitched decently of late, but he’s still been tagged by right-handed batters for a .376 wOBA this season. This creates an appealing opportunity for the Brewers’ right-handed bats. Urias, in particular, owns a .211 ISO versus southpaws this season.
Third Base — Evan Longoria (R), 21%, San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (LHP Madison Bumgarner): Longoria becomes a high-priority streaming options whenever there’s a lefty on the mound, and that’s the situation on Thursday. Longo has blasted southpaws for a .339/.474/.677 triple slash this season, and Bumgarner has been very hittable of late, posting a 6.17 ERA over his last six turns.
Shortstop — Cole Tucker (S), 1%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs (LHP Justin Steele): Although he hasn’t been fantasy relevant at all this season, Tucker is finishing the season on a strong note. He’s playing nearly every day and hitting .353/.410/.529 over his last 10 games. The switch-hitting Tucker will get the platoon advantage against Steele, who has allowed a .374 wOBA to righty swingers this season.
Corner Infield — Nathaniel Lowe (L), 31%, Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Alex Cobb): We like Cobb as a streaming option Thursday, but Lowe deserves consideration, too. The Texas slugger has produced a .920 OPS over his last 19 games, his 46.5% hard-hit rate ranks him top-20 in the American League, and he draws the platoon edge against Cobb on Sunday.
Middle Infield — Gavin Lux (L), 42%, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres (Undecided): Maybe it’s too soon to write off Gavin Lux? Left for dead by many fantasy managers, Lux is finally getting regular playing time, and the results have been very encouraging. The last 13 games have seen him hit .405/.490/.571 with the same number of walks and strikeouts. Still only 23, Lux could provide your team with a jolt over the season’s last few days.
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Outfield — Harrison Bader (R), 31%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (LHP Brett Anderson): The Cardinals’ incredible winning streak just keeps on rolling, and so does Bader. The speedy outfielder is batting .359 in September while providing both power (six homers) and speed (two steals). For his part, Anderson has allowed a .388/.442/.567 triple slash and 7.71 ERA over his last five starts.
Outfield — Brandon Nimmo (L), 36%, New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Edward Cabrera): Things just haven’t clicked yet for Cabrera, who sports a 5.79 ERA and 6.6 walk rate through his first six big-league starts. Cabrera’s bloated walk rate should lead to Nimmo getting on base multiple times on Thursday. Not only does he boast an elite 14.3% walk rate this season, but he sports a .374 wOBA and 141 wRC+ in September.
Outfield — Jesus Sanchez (L), 15%, Miami Marlins at New York Mets (RHP Tylor Megill): The 23-year-old Sanchez is finally making fantasy managers take notice, batting .316 with seven dingers and 15 RBI in his last 17 games. The high whiff rate remains a concern, but this is a live bat with intriguing power. We could very well see another power display from Sanchez on Thursday against Megill. The right-hander has had a big problem keeping the ball in the park, as he’s served up 12 homers in his last six starts.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.