Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday
The regular slate features a nice mix of day and night games. The marquee pitching matchup is between the Los Angeles Angels’ Shohei Ohtani and the Toronto Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios. On the hitting side, there’s a good mix of aces to avoid and bottom-rung hurlers to attack. And, most importantly, that leaves us with a good number of pitchers in the middle that belong in the streamer discussion.
Here’s a look at Thursday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Logan Webb (R), rostered in 48% of ESPN leagues, San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: Webb’s rostered percentage has been surging, but he’s still available in more than half of ESPN leagues. The right-hander has been flat-out dominant of late, posting a 1.72 ERA with more than a K per inning over his last nine starts. During that nine-start stretch, he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any outing, and he’s surrendered one or zero runs in seven of them. Add in a home start against the Rockies, who sport an MLB-worst 67 wRC+ on the road, and Webb is easily the top streamer of the day.
Marco Gonzales (L), 45%, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: After posting sub-4.00 ERAs each of the last two seasons, Gonzales has been a big disappointment, stumbling to a 4.73 ERA over 15 starts. That said, the veteran left-hander has mostly been the victim of a few blow-up outings. More often than not, he’s been a solid streamer. Gonzales owns a 2.48 ERA over his last five starts, including road starts against the Yankees and Rockies, and only once in his last eight outings has he allowed more than three runs. A Rangers lineup that ranks dead last with a .285 wOBA and 80 wRC+ against lefty pitching shouldn’t give Gonzales any problems on Thursday.
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Kyle Muller (L), 21%, Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: It’d be nice to see Muller pitch deeper into games, as he’s averaging just under five innings per start, due in part to his wandering control (4.5 BB/9). Still, it’s hard to argue with his 2.88 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 over his first seven big-league turns. Armed with a 93.5 mph heater from the left side, Muller doesn’t blow hitters away, but he can still rack up Ks with his slider and curve, both of which can be legit put-away pitches. The Reds feature a tough offense, but they’ve been well below average versus lefties this season, so Thursday’s matchup isn’t one we need to avoid.
Vladimir Gutierrez (R), 24%, Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves: Gutierrez has rebounded nicely since getting roughed up by the Mets a few weeks ago. In his last three turns, the right-hander has spun three quality starts, surrendering a combined four runs over 19 1/3 frames (1.87 ERA). On the whole, Gutierrez isn’t necessarily an arm to get excited about, as he doesn’t strike a ton of hitters out and has middling control. Plus, his 5.44 FIP and 5.55 xFIP suggest that his 4.15 ERA is a bit fluky. Keeping in mind the risk here, Gutierrez is still a decent dart throw if you’re streaming aggressively. The Braves improved their lineup at the trade deadline, but it’s still not an overpowering offense.
Bullpen:
With Ryan Yarbrough landing on the COVID-19 injured list and Josh Fleming’s start being pushed to Wednesday, the Rays are installing Drew Rasmussen as their opener on Thursday. Rasmussen hasn’t pitched more than three innings in a game this season, so he won’t pitch long enough to qualify for the win before the Rays hand it over to their bullpen.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Yan Gomes (R), 10%, Oakland Athletics at Cleveland (RHP Eli Morgan): Gomes was hitting well prior to landing on the injured list in mid-July, and he’s picked up where he left off since returning to action in late July. All told, he’s batting .344/.403/.656 over his last 19 games, which includes two homers and eight RBI in five games since being traded to Oakland. Gomes draws a nice matchup against Eli Morgan and his 6.09 ERA. If Sean Murphy happens to get the nod behind the plate on Thursday, he’s also a quality streaming option available in more than 50% of leagues.
First Base — Brandon Belt (L), 18%, San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP German Marquez): Since being activated off the injured list last Thursday, all Belt has done is blast four homers and drive in seven runs in his first four games. While Oracle Park isn’t necessarily a great venue for offense, Belt has crushed there all season, putting up a .321/.420/.679 triple slash.
Second Base — Josh Rojas (L), 29%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (RHP Yu Darvish): Rojas is fresh off the injured list after missing time with a dislocated finger. Prior to the injury, the 27-year-old had been on a tear, batting .321 with a .444 OBP over his previous 23 games. He’ll slot back into Arizona’s leadoff spot against right-handed pitching, providing eligibility at three different positions.
Third Base — Abraham Toro (S), 38%, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Mike Foltynewicz): Toro has drawn a lot of attention in this space lately, but frankly, he’s earned it. Since joining the Mariners, he’s hit .386 with three homers, a steal, and more walks than strikeouts in 12 games. He’s also gained eligibility at second base. The switch-hitting Toro is an easy plug-and-play against Foltynewicz, who is allowing a .398 wOBA to lefty batters.
Shortstop — Amed Rosario (R), 40%, Cleveland vs. Oakland Athletics (RHP Chris Bassitt): Bassitt is one of the better hurlers on the slate, but finding quality shortstops who are widely available isn’t an easy task. Since the All-Star break, Rosario is hitting .337 with 11 extra-base hits and 13 runs in 22 games as Cleveland’s No. 2 hitter. Perhaps more importantly, he’s swiped four bags during that stretch.
Corner Infield — Miguel Cabrera (R), 8%, Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (LHP John Means): Cabrera looks rejuvenated at the plate. Despite his low rostered percentage, the veteran first baseman has been a worthwhile fantasy asset for more than a month now, hitting .308/.358/.473 over his last 41 games. Cabrera has been more productive versus lefties this season, so it helps that he’s drawing the platoon edge against Means on Thursday. The fact that Miggy gets a big park upgrade at Camden Yards is another bonus.
Middle Infield — Brendan Rodgers (R), 20%, Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (RHP Logan Webb): We like to avoid most Rockies hitters away from Coors Field, but Rodgers has produced a .379 wOBA and 137 wRC+ on the road this season, so that rule doesn’t apply to him. He’s also been red-hot since the break, cruising to a .333/.377/.583 triple slash in 18 games.
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Outfield — Harrison Bader (R), 33%, St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP JT Brubaker): After posting a 2.58 ERA across his first seven starts, Brubaker has been tagged for a 6.26 ERA over his last 13 turns. Needless to say, the right-hander is one of the hurlers we want to attack on Thursday. Bader, who sports a .324/.385/.533 slash line over the last month, is a good way to do that.
Outfield — Jarren Duran (L), 12%, Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Drew Rasmussen): Duran has yet to really get going at the big-league level, but he’s been batting second against righties in one of baseball’s best lineups, and that’s a good place to start for a youngster with power, a strong eye, and speed to burn. The Rays are going with a bullpen game here, which could lead to good things for the Red Sox’s offense.
Outfield — Jorge Mateo (R), 1%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Matt Manning): The Orioles claimed Mateo off waivers from the Padres last week, and they’re giving the 26-year-old a chance to play. He’s started each of the last four games, drawing starts at shortstop and second base. Once a highly touted prospect, Mateo has a hit tool that is lacking, but what he does have is game-changing speed. We’re talking one of the fastest players in baseball here. Mateo has already stolen two bases in four games with the Orioles, and he should continue to run freely as long as he’s in the lineup.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.