Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Sunday
Don’t fret, we’ll keep tracking the latest trends so you can focus on your fantasy team management. To that end, here are Sunday’s selections, designed to help finish the week out in a strong manner. Everyone is available in at least half of all ESPN leagues.
Casey Mize (R), rostered in 36% of ESPN leagues, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals: Before musing on Mize, just a quick note to let you know from now on, the pitchers listed in this space will be ordered with the most favorable matchup on top. While it appears Mize has taken a step forward compared to his rookie season, his strikeout and walk rates are essentially the same. The major difference is Mize has induced weaker contact, in part driving a low, but likely unsustainable .216 BABIP. Still, he’s shown enough to get the top spot against an improved, but still manageable Royals lineup.
Kris Bubic (L), 11%, Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: It feels like a cheat code, but any time a pitcher with over 50% rostership is available, he’ll probably make the cut. After scoreless relief appearances spanning 5 and 5 1/3 innings, Bubic got the start last time out and stifled the Brewers for six shutout frames, allowing just one hit with four punch outs.
JT Brubaker (R), 44%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves: The streaming field is light to close the week, or Brubaker may not have made it. He certainly warrants consideration with 44 strikeouts in the same number of innings, facing a Braves lineup with the seventh highest strikeout rate against righthanders in the game. However, when they make contact, Atlanta is one of the more potent offenses around.
Cody Poteet (R), 3%, Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: This will be Poteet’s first home start in pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park. In his two road efforts, Poteet allowed just two runs in 10 innings, fanning nine with just two free passes. The Mets already injury-riddled lineup is now also without Pete Alonso.
Bullpen: Last season, Hansel Robles allowed 19 earned runs in only 16 2/3 innings. This year, Robles has been responsible for just two runners crossing the plate in his watch, covering 17 2/3 innings. He seems to have secured the Twins closing duties, capturing two saves over the past week.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Jacob Stallings (R), 11%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves (LHP Max Fried): Stallings backup is lefty swinging Michael Perez who received the start on Saturday. This virtually assures Stallings will be back squatting on Sunday where he’ll enjoy the platoon edge on a southpaw. Since 2019, Stallings has posted a .974 facing lefties.
First Base — Miguel Cabrera (R), 4%, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (LHP Kris Bubic): Speaking of facing lefties, Cabrera has feasted off lefthanders for 17 seasons. He’s not as productive as his salad days, but Cabrera is still dangerous with the platoon edge.
Second Base — Kevin Newman (R), 3%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves (LHP Max Fried): In a time where most everyone is swinging as hard as they can in can they hit the ball, Newman is a throwback, fanning just 10 times in 163 plate appearances heading into Saturday’s action. Usually, the focus in the space is on upside, especially on Sunday when trying to make up ground. However, there are just as many fantasy managers trying to hang on so they may prefer a safer play, albeit with a lower ceiling. Newman is an ideal candidate.
Third Base — Brian Anderson (R), 27%, Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (Undecided): Anderson has enjoyed a productive week, especially or points leagues. He’s slashed .375/.524/.750 over his last five games preceding Saturday’s docket, even chipping in with a steal.
Shortstop — Nico Hoerner (R), 37%, Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Adam Wainwright): Hoerner carried a five-game hitting streak into Saturday contest, going .400/.429/.450 in that stretch. More importantly, his underlying metrics are improved across the board. For the season, Hoerner has reduced strikeouts while drawing more walks as well as increasing his average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Corner Infield — Jonathan Villar (S), 26%, New York Mets at Miami Marlins (RHP Cody Poteet): Granted, it’s more out of process of elimination than warranted by production, but Villar has taken over the leadoff spot for the depleted Mets offense. He’s not hitting for average, but a pair of homers and a couple steals over the past week indicates he’s helping fantasy managers in other ways.
Middle Infield — Edmundo Sosa (R), under 1%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Zach Davies): Sosa has filled in at shortstop with Paul DeJong on the IL. In his last three games, Sosa is 6-for-10 with five runs scored. Of course, he won’t sustain this pace, but the Cardinals should put some points on the board facing Davies so Sosa has a chance to continue being productive.
Outfield — Miguel Andujar (R), 2%, New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox (LHP Dallas Keuchel): As is evident by his symmetrical .300/.300/.300 slash the prior eight starts, Andujar isn’t hitting for power. However, he is making solid contact and should continue to do so facing Keuchel, who has only whiffed 24 in 50 2/3 frames.
Outfield — Josh Reddick (L), under 1%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (RHP Jon Gray): He’s been quite so far, but Reddick has a solid major league track record, especially against righty pitching. Let’s give Pavin Smith a break and give the nod to Reddick to take advantage of Coors Field with the platoon bump.
Outfield — Andrew Stevenson (L), under 1%, Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Matt Harvey): Victor Robles will likely miss Sunday’s interleague tilt, putting Stevenson in a good spot as he’ll have the platoon advantage on Harvey, the lowest ranked hurler on Sunday’s card.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.