Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Sunday
If you haven’t yet read my primer on how weather can give you a MASSIVE edge in fantasy baseball, be sure to check that out now, as it will help provide context for my player evaluations each week.
Here are Sunday’s choices to bolster your fantasy squad, with everyone available in at least half of all ESPN leagues.
Luis Patino (R), rostered in 18% of ESPN leagues, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: The Twins offense isn’t what it was with Nelson Cruz in the lineup, and today they take a big park hit going into Tropicana Field. Given the dearth of pitching options today, Patino is a fine choice.
Matt Moore (R), 1%, Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: What Moore may lack in terms of conventional appeal he makes up for in the matchup. He gets a big park upgrade going into Miami-which, like Tropicana, will have among the best pitching “weather” of the day with a closed roof-and an elite matchup against the weak and extremely strikeout-heavy Marlins lineup.
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Josiah Gray (R), 27%, Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: This matchup isn’t great, and we’re really starting to stretch a bit, but Gray is a talented young pitcher with plenty of upside (even if he hasn’t shown much of it yet this year). High variance play with upside.
Zach Davies (R), 19%, Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Davies won’t get you strikeouts, and the Pirates won’t really help his case, but they are among the worst offenses in baseball, and so you should be well-positioned for good ratios and a decent chance at a win.
Bullpen:
The best matchup today belongs to Matt Moore and the Philly relievers behind him. Big park upgrade into an elite pitchers’ park, good pitching “weather”, a weak opposing offense that happens to be one of baseball’s most strikeout-friendly. Closer Ian Kennedy (rostered in 66% of leagues) is the weakest pitcher on the roster, but if you’re searching for saves, you could get away with him ratio-wise in this spot. If you’re looking to shore up ratios and pick up a strikeout or two, Bailey Falter (rostered in less than 1% of leagues) would be my first choice, and he’s almost universally available.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Sean Murphy (R), 44%, Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (LHP Robbie Ray): What Ray has done this year is marvelous, but he’s still a lefty with a bit of a platoon problem. At a shallow catcher position, you can take a shot on a righty with power (especially if Travis d’Arnaud in Coors isn’t available).
First Base — Bobby Dalbec (R), 18%, Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland (RHP Zach Plesac): Plesac’s 2020 is looking kind of fraudulent at this point, and today he goes into Fenway Park to face a good Red Sox offense. Dalbec is usually buried near the bottom of the order, but he’s still among the best options today.
Second Base — Mike Moustakas (L), 51%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Casey Mize): Moose hasn’t been playing every day since coming off the DL, but he’s in there most days, and if he’s playing today the matchup is great. He’s at home in baseball’s premier power park facing a below-average opposing pitcher.
Third Base — Luis Urias (R), 44%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Jon Lester): Lester projects as the weakest pitcher on the slate, and Urias will hold the platoon advantage against him. He’s even hits leadoff or second on occasion, and if that’s the case today he’d be an even more appealing stream.
Shortstop — Brendan Rodgers (R), 20%, Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (RHP Charlie Morton): Coors Field is Coors Field, even if Morton is a good pitcher. It’s that simple. Garrett Hampson should be very much on your radar as well.
Corner Infield — Nate Lowe (L), 32%, Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (Undecided): There’s no official pitcher announcement yet, but it looks like it could be Jaime Barria, who would rank among the bottom-five pitchers on this slate, talent-wise. It’s a sneaky park upgrade for Texas power hitters, particularly when it comes to lefties like Lowe.
Middle Infield — Jonathan Villar (S), 30%, New York Mets at Washington Nationals (RHP Josiah Gray): Middle infield is pretty thin today, but Villar is an interesting choice if you need steals. It’s a good park upgrade, and while Gray has upside, he’s certainly had his woes this year in terms of allowing runs, and he’s below-average at preventing stolen bases.
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Outfield — Justin Upton (R), 16%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers (LHP Taylor Hearn): Upton at home with the platoon advantage against a weak lefty? Sign me up.
Outfield — Joc Pederson (L), 45%, Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber): Even though it’s lefty/lefty, it’s still Coors Field, and Joc has played against four of the last six lefties Atlanta has faced. Regardless of the platoon situation (which would resolve itself if Gomber gets knocked around and leaves early), Joc makes for one of the best outfield plays today.
Outfield — Akil Baddoo (L), 27%, Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Luis Castillo): Baddoo gets a big park upgrade going into Great American Ball Park, and while Castillo is a good pitcher, he’s not immune to giving up homers. Baddoo has power and is a good match for this park.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.