Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Sunday
With that in mind, here is our daily trek around the diamond, highlighting players in favorable spots, focusing on players rostered in roughly 50% or fewer ESPN leagues.
Ross Stripling (R), rostered in 32% of ESPN leagues, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: In 9 1/3 innings against the Red Sox, Stripling has posted a 9.64 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Against the rest of the league, his numbers check in at 3.35 and 1.22. Obviously, you can’t just strike the Boston starts from the record, but it does suggest he’s capable of handling a lesser offense like the Orioles.
Patrick Sandoval (L), 20%, Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays: Sandoval has provided the Angels rotation with a much-needed boost as he’s recorded a 2.93 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in five starts. He’s benefited from fortunate hit and home run rates, although 30 strikeouts to only nine walks in those 27 1/3 frames shows he’s also pitching well.
Brady Singer (R), 18%, Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers: Singer has only pitched a total of 6 2/3 innings over his last two starts. However, previously, Singer was providing the Royals with length to the tune of at least 5 2/3 frames in eight of his other 11 efforts. The right-hander should get back on track against a Rangers lineup with the ninth-lowest wOBA against righties.
Eric Lauer (L), 2%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: I’ll take the “L” for recommending Justus Sheffield against the Rockies on the basis of how well southpaws usually fare at home against Colorado. That said, one game isn’t enough to ignore history. Lauer has worked five frames in both of his last two starts and should be able to at least match that on Sunday. It may be a bit of narrative, but he also catches the Rockies in the game before they head home for a lengthy stay, which means they may be a bit more free-swinging than usual.
Bullpen: Jose Alvarado is the latest newly named closer, for those spending the summer recycling relievers to try and collect those saves. Hector Neris blew three of his last four chances for the Phillies, so Joe Girardi announced the switch to Alvarez (available in 85% of ESPN leagues). Unfortunately, Alvarez failed to convert his first chance, costing Aaron Nola the win on Friday in a game where Nola managed to string together 10 consecutive strikeouts, tying Tom Seaver for the MLB record. Alvarado has closing experience, nailing down 15 games for the Rays from 2018-2019, but he’s prone to control issues. To wit, he’s walked 24 in 28 frames this season.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
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Catcher — Reese McGuire (L), 2%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez): To be honest, there is a good chance McGuire rests on Sunday since he’s been playing a lot lately, so a few other options behind the dish will be included. McGuire’s allure is having the platoon edge in a lineup earmarked for a big day against a subpar arm. The backstop will probably lose his roster spot soon as both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk are nearing returns. Other options at the position include Tom Murphy (Mariners) and Sean Murphy (Athletics) as they both enjoy the platoon edge on southpaw pitching.
First Base — Miguel Sano (R), 49%, Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland (LHP Sam Hentges): Several Twins are in play against a pedestrian southpaw, with Sano in the best spot to produce the longball. Sano has been losing playing time, but should be in the lineup with the platoon edge. Also consider teammates Luis Arraez, Andrelton Simmons and Ryan Jeffers.
Second Base — Kolten Wong (L), 45%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez): Wong has received ample attention in this space and should be considered close to automatic when facing right-handers. If this were in the middle of the week, I’d look to bring another name into the mix. However, on the final day of the fantasy week, there’s no reason to mess around as Gonzalez is the lowest ranked pitcher on the card.
Third Base — Wilmer Flores (R), 15%, San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Cole Irvin): Flores is also one of a few teammates in a good spot with the platoon bump. The Giants have quietly joined their brethren across the Bay in taking advantage of matchups by playing platoons at a few different spots. Donovan Solano and Mauricio Dubon are also right-hander swingers and are readily available.
Shortstop — Paul DeJong (R), 35%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (LHP Tyler Anderson): Between injuries and subpar play, it’s been a frustrating first half for DeJong. Perhaps leaving the yard on Saturday will spark a rebound as DeJong has been hitting the ball harder lately without much to show for it.
Corner Infield — Nate Lowe (L), 47%, Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals (RHP Brady Singer): First base was a trouble spot for the Rangers, so they acquired Lowe. His season-long numbers aren’t special, but he has been picking it up lately, hitting .381/.458/.619 over the past two weeks.
Middle Infield — Nicky Lopez (L), 4%, Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles): Lopez is being called upon to once again replace Adalberto Mondesi. Obviously, he can’t match Mondesi’s production, but Lopez has managed a .346/.443/.365 line this month, to go along with a pair of steals.
Outfield — Manuel Margot (R), 46%, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels (LHP Patrick Sandoval): Margot isn’t flashy, but there is a strong chance he has both double-digit homers and steals by the All-Star break. He doesn’t walk much, but he fans only 16% of the time, which helps with volume. On Sunday, he faces a southpaw and he has historically hit left-handers well.
Outfield — Akil Baddoo (L), 23%, Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros (RHP Jake Odorizzi): Baddoo took a 10-game hitting streak into Saturday’s doubleheader. In that stretch, he had a terrific .417/.500/.556 line. Streaks in a vacuum are largely non-predictive, however, with a stingy 9.5% strikeout rate and a hefty 14.3% walk rate in this span, Baddoo is obviously seeing the ball well. He is still worth getting out there when a right-hander is on the hill.
Outfield — Chas McCormick (R), 2%, Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers (LHP Tarik Skubal): With both Kyle Tucker and Michael Brantley now off the IL and Myles Straw playing well, McCormick’s playing time will surely wane. Assuming he still plays against southpaws, though, he’s a nice conduit into a prolific lineup. If McCormick is on the bench, Straw will almost assuredly be in the lineup and he becomes a worthy option to consider.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.