Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Saturday’s games
Here’s a look at the day’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Create or join a league today >>
Cheat Sheet Central >>
Alec Mills (R), rostered in 39% of ESPN leagues, Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Friday’s game between these division rivals was postponed due to one more positive COVID-19 test in the Cardinals’ clubhouse, so be sure Saturday’s game is on when filling out your lineup. Mills is not a high-upside arm. His fastball sits about 90 mph, and his secondary offerings don’t generate many swings and misses. The Cubs righty does, however, have pretty good command and has done a good job inducing soft contact. Through his first two outings, Mills has delivered back-to-back quality starts, including seven shutout frames against Kansas City his last time out. There’s no reason to target him in dangerous matchups, but he’s a perfectly fine streamer in the right spots. He finds himself in another nice matchup on Saturday, facing a Cardinals lineup that’s coming off a long layoff and is without Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina.
Caleb Smith (L), 36%, Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Smith is set to make his first start since the Marlins’ long hiatus. His first outing of the season nearly two weeks ago didn’t go as planned, as he issued six walks in three innings, but the intrigue with Smith remains. After averaging 91.6 mph with his fastball last season, when he was hampered by hip issues, he averaged 92.4 mph in his first start of 2020, an encouraging sign. While Smith will never be a pinpoint control guy, he has swing-and-miss stuff and a nice ceiling when healthy. In fact, we saw his upside last season when he posted a 2.38 ERA, 12.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in his first nine starts of 2019 before going down with the hip injury. The pitch count could be somewhat limited after the time off, but there’s still nice strikeout potential here against the Mets.
Anthony DeSclafani (R), 26%, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: A matchup against the Brewers in Miller Park isn’t without risk, but Milwaukee’s offense is a mess right now, ranking bottom-five in baseball with a 78 wRC+ and bottom-three with a 28.1% K rate. Meanwhile, DeSclafani was pumping a career-high 95.1 mph on his fastball in his first start, an outing in which he hurled five scoreless frames against Detroit. If you combine that peak velocity with a strong walk rate that has never topped 2.7 BB/9 in his career, there could be something here that warrants your attention.
Framber Valdez (L), 7%, Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics: Valdez draws his second start of the season with Josh James moving to the bullpen. While Valdez got roughed up a bit in his first outing against the Dodgers in late July, he tossed 6 1/3 relief innings of one-run ball (zero earned runs) against the Angels on Sunday with eight K’s and one walk. There have been control issues here in the past (5.6 BB/9 in 2019), but he’s issued only two free passes in 10 2/3 frames this season. If he can keep the walks in check, Valdez can make it work with a passable strikeout rate and an elite ability to get ground balls. A matchup against an A’s team that owns an inflated 27.3% strikeout rate in a pitcher-friendly park should pay dividends.
David Peterson (L), 8%, New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: Peterson is coming off two solid starts in tough road matchups against the Braves and Red Sox, registering a 3.86 ERA with 11 K’s and three walks across 11 2/3 innings. The former first-round pick’s stuff isn’t overpowering, but he’s posted strong walk and groundball rates throughout his minor league career, and his slider looks like a strong put-away offering. Most importantly, Saturday’s matchup comes against the Marlins, one of the most streamer-friendly lineups on the slate.
Barring further postponements, Cardinals are set to return to action on Saturday after a nine-day layoff due to a COVID-19 breakout in the organization, and they will enter the weekend’s action with a new closer. Unfortunately, it’s not entirely clear who the new closer will be. With Carlos Martinez on the injured list, Kwang-Hyun Kim will shift into the starting rotation, creating an opening in the ninth inning. While Giovanny Gallegos, who was the Cardinals’ best reliever in 2019, might seem like the obvious choice, the first name manager Mike Shildt mentioned when speaking to reporters was Ryan Helsley. Like so many bullpens this season, the Cardinals may ultimately mix and max in the late innings, but the hard-throwing Helsley, who is rostered in just 10% of ESPN leagues, is certainly a name to keep an eye on during this weekend’s series against the Cubs.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Projected game scores
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2020 statistics
Catcher — Max Stassi (R), 23%, Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (LHP Kolby Allard): Stassi clubbed his fourth homer of the season on Thursday and is now hitting .333/.400/.905 across his first 25 plate appearances. He should continue his hot swinging on Saturday, when he gets the platoon advantage against Allard, who has yet to prove he can get big-league hitters out consistently.
First Base — Eric Thames (L), 8%, Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Tom Eshelman): Thames has yet to get going, but he remains a potent power bat that can hit homers in bunches. He finds himself in an ideal spot on Saturday, squaring off against Eshelman, the owner of a 6.18 ERA in 39 big-league frames.
Second Base — Jonathan Schoop (R), 26%, Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates (LHP Derek Holland): The Tigers are back in action this weekend after a short layoff, and Schoop looks like an immediate plug-and-play option against Holland. The Tigers second baseman has clubbed three dingers in 10 games this season, and Holland has trouble keeping the ball in the yard.
Third Base — Colin Moran (L), 52%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Ivan Nova): While Moran has cooled off over the last few games, he still has five homers on the year, thanks to a 25% barrel rate that ranks in the 95th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. He should have little trouble teeing off against a pitch-to-contact hurler like Nova.
Shortstop — Chris Taylor (R), 27%, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (RHP Johnny Cueto): Taylor is a good way to get some exposure to the Dodgers’ deep lineup. While he doesn’t play every day, he’s still in the lineup the majority of the time, whether at shortstop, second base or left field. Taylor has actually performed slightly better against righties in his career, which sets him up well for Saturday’s matchup versus Cueto.
Corner Infield — Mitch Moreland (L), 7%, Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Matt Shoemaker): Shoemaker pitched well in his first start of the season, but he fell apart in his second outing, allowing three homers and walking more than he struck out. If he struggles again this weekend, Moreland, who sports a 222 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the early going, should do some damage.
Middle Infield — Kolten Wong (L), 37%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Alec Mills): Wong was dropped in many leagues during the Cardinals’ layoff, but he’ll be back hitting atop the lineup when they return to action. With a nice combination of power, speed and on-base skills, Wong is a great target when he has the platoon edge against a mid-level hurler like Mills.
Outfield — Nick Senzel (R), 42%, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (LHP Brett Anderson): Senzel’s numbers this season aren’t flashy from a fantasy perspective, but he’s still hitting .280/.357/.560 with just a 13.8% strikeout rate. Batting in a great park, in a great lineup, the 25-year-old Senzel has a skill set you want to invest in. Fire him up against the soft-tossing southpaw.
Outfield — Matt Kemp (R), 15%, Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners (LHP Nick Margevicius): Have we reached the point where Matt Kemp is relevant again? Not only is he playing regularly, but he sports a .292/.393/.583 triple slash with a pair of homers, eight RBI, and a 12% walk rate through 10 games. Even if there’s no Coors Field boost on Saturday, he gets the platoon edge against a very hittable lefty.
Outfield — Randal Grichuk (R), 32%, Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (RHP Zack Godley): Grichuk may still be sitting on zero homers, but that’s unlikely to last much longer. Power is still the 28-year-old’s primary skill, and his 10.5% walk rate and 50% hard-hit rate tell us he’s seeing the ball well. Grichuk is a good bet to start showcasing that power soon.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.