Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Saturday
Here’s a look at Saturday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Jameson Taillon (R), rostered in 48% of ESPN leagues, New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers: We’ve been waiting for Taillon to finally put it all together. His ERA sits at 5.06, but the underlying stuff looks good. He’s missing plenty of bats (10.6 K/9), limiting walks (2.5 BB/9), and his 3.63 xERA tells us he deserves better than a 5.00 ERA. Saturday’s outing against Detroit should be the start where we finally see everything click. Taillon is coming off five shutout innings against the White Sox and he will get to face off against a dormant Tigers offense that has the worst wRC+ (83) in the American League and the worst K-rate (28.4%) in baseball.
Austin Gomber (L), 18%, Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates: Some fantasy managers were burned by Gomber’s nine-run blowup against the Giants earlier this season, but he’s provided nice value as a streamer more often than not. The left-hander has held opponents to three-or-fewer earned runs in eight of his 10 starts, he’s fanning more than one batter per inning, and he sports a 1.40 ERA over his last three turns. Start Gomber with confidence against a harmless Pirates lineup with an MLB-worst 71 wRC+ in May.
JT Brubaker (R), 27%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: Squaring off against Gomber is Brubaker, who gets an equally appealing matchup against a Rockies team that has the worst road offense in baseball. The 27-year-old has gotten knocked around in his last couple of outings, but prior to that, he had strung together seven consecutive starts of three-or-fewer runs. Thanks to a slider that features a 40.1% whiff rate, Brubaker has a 9.3 K/9 to go along with a terrific 2.2 BB/9. Despite any recent speed bumps, this remains a quality arm that should be able to stifle a Colorado offense that won’t have access to its Coors Field powers.
Adam Wainwright (R), 38%, St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks: There’s been some inconsistency with Wainwright this season, but when the veteran right-hander has been on, he’s been borderline dominant. Wainwright has spun at least eight scoreless innings in two of his last three starts, and he’s lasted seven-plus frames while allowing no more than two runs in four of his last six outings. While he’s never been a big strikeout pitcher, his 8.4 K/9 rate is one of the best marks of his career, and his 2.6 BB/9 is right in line with his career 2.5 mark. Wainwright should have little trouble holding down an Arizona offense that’s bottomed out in May, sporting a 28th-ranked 76 wRC+ and a 25.3% K-rate.
Justin Dunn (R), 4%, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: Although Dunn hasn’t been pitching deep into games this season, he’s provided a fairly stable floor, holding opposing offenses to three-or-fewer runs in all eight starts. The 5.7 BB/9 is ugly, but it’s being inflated by the eight walks he handed out in his season debut. Since then, Dunn has a still poor, but far more reasonable 4.3 BB/9 rate to go along with a 3.09 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 35 frames. Also noteworthy is that, after sitting 91.2 mph with his fastball in 2020, Dunn is averaging 93.8 mph in 2021. On Saturday, he draws a Rangers lineup that’s fanning at a 25% clip versus left-handed pitching.
Bullpen: Like many teams these days, the Twins don’t have just one reliever locked into their ninth-inning role. Over the last two weeks, Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey have all secured saves. That said, Robles leads the team with three saves during that stretch (Rogers and Duffey have just one each) with a 2.35 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings, suggesting he has the confidence of manager Rocco Baldelli right now. Robles is a free agent in 91% of ESPN leagues.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — William Contreras (R), 19%, Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (LHP David Peterson): Contreras has been an underrated fantasy commodity since taking over primary catching duties in Atlanta. Over his last 12 games, the 23-year-old has put up a 1.072 OPS with four homers, nine RBI, and eight runs scored. Contreras will get the platoon edge against Peterson on Saturday.
First Base — Mitch Moreland (L), 2%, Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Alex Cobb): Fresh off the injured list, Moreland will slide back into his regular role with the Athletics, getting routine at-bats against right-handed pitching. The veteran first baseman matches up well with Cobb, who has a track record of home-run issues.
Second Base — Cesar Hernandez (S), 27%, Cleveland vs. Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Ross Stripling): The switch-hitting Hernandez isn’t known for his power stroke, but he has clubbed three homers over his last 10 games, giving him six on the season. He continues to be a decent source of runs while hitting atop Cleveland’s batting order. While Stripling pitched well in relief earlier this week, he has an ugly 7.20 ERA as a starter this season.
Third Base — Ha-Seong Kim (R), 6%, San Diego Padres at Houston Astros (RHP Jake Odorizzi): San Diego’s lineup has lots of moving parts, but Kim has worked himself into the lineup regularly while Manny Machado has been sidelined with a shoulder injury. Machado could return to the starting lineup this weekend, but Kim has seen time at second, third, and shortstop this season, so there are plenty of avenues for him to get into the lineup. Over his last 13 games, Kim has seven extra-base hits and three stolen bases.
Shortstop — Willy Adames (R), 9%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin): Adames made his first real impact as a member of the Brewers on Thursday, going 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI. More importantly, he batted second with a left-hander on the mound. Facing another southpaw on Saturday, Adames should again slot in near the top of the lineup. Meanwhile, Corbin has been tormented by right-handed batters this season, surrendering a .327/.390/.585 line.
Corner Infield — Danny Santana (S), 7%, Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins (LHP Trevor Rogers): There are flaws in Santana’s game — namely strikeouts — but he can also offer a lot of fantasy potential. Let’s not forget that as recently as 2019, Santana popped 28 homers and stole 21 bases with the Rangers. In five games since his 2021 promotion to the big-leagues, he’s shown the same power/speed skillset, swatting a pair of homers and swiping a bag. Santana has the ability to move around the field, so as long as he’s in the lineup, he’s worth consideration.
Middle Infield — Ty France (R), 26%, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Mike Foltynewicz): Foltynewicz has flashed at times this season, but more often than not, he’s just been really hittable. The right-hander sports a 4.53 ERA through 10 starts, and his 45.7% hard-hit rate is seventh-worst in baseball. France’s production has tailed off in May, but he has hit safely in three straight games since returning from the IL.
Outfield — Michael Taylor (R), 19%, Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (LHP J.A. Happ): Even though he’s not a great big-league hitter, Taylor is guy who can still provide fantasy value. He’s drilled five homers and swiped four bags on the season, and his defense should keep him in the lineup regularly. For his part, Happ is allowing a .361 wOBA to right-handed batters this season.
Outfield — Joc Pederson (L), 50%, Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds (RHP Luis Castillo): Before the season started, it seemed crazy to think that Castillo would be a pitcher we’d want exposure against, but here we are. The right-hander continues to disappoint start after start. He holds a 7.61 ERA on the year, and he’s now gone eight consecutive turns without registering a quality start. Needless to say, this is a good time to fire up Pederson, who is just starting to get his power stroke going. He’s homered three times in his last five games.
Outfield — Alex Kirilloff (L), 42%, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (Undecided): Kirilloff was dropped by many fantasy managers when he landed on the IL, but he’s back now and needs to be rostered. It’s a limited sample, but the rookie has produced an elite 55.1% hard-hit rate and 20.4% barrel rate in 18 games. In other words, Kirilloff already appears to be living up to his high-end prospect status. His rostered percentage will continue to rise in the coming weeks, so don’t be late to the party.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.