Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Saturday
Here’s a look at Saturday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Jake Odorizzi (R), rostered in 18% of ESPN leagues, Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics: Of all the streaming options on the slate, Odorizzi probably carries the safest floor. The right-hander is unlikely to rack up whiffs, but he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in six consecutive starts and is always a good bet to receive strong run support from one of baseball’s best lineups. Although the A’s aren’t any easy matchup, by any means, they’ve been merely average against right-handed pitching this season. The Astros have already clinched the AL West, but Odorizzi should still be good for five frames here.
Shane Baz (R), 34%, Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees: A matchup against the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly a favorable draw for the 22-year-old Baz, but if you’re trying to make up ground and are seeking upside, this is it. The former first-round pick has only two big-league starts under his belt, but he’s certainly met the hype, holding the Blue Jays and Marlins to just two runs over 10 2/3 innings while fanning 14 and walking only one. Armed with a 97-mph heater and a wipeout curveball, Baz has the look of a future ace. That’s more than enough to make him streamer-worthy, even with a tough assignment.
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Antonio Senzatela (R), 13%, Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Many fantasy managers just ignore Rockies pitchers entirely, which might help explain why Senzatela has flown under the radar in the second half. The 26-year-old owns a 3.36 ERA since the All-Star break, including a 2.82 mark of his last eight starts. While Senzatela doesn’t generate many Ks (6.1 K/9), his pinpoint control (1.7 BB/9) and strong ground ball rate (51.6%) have helped him find success. Look for that success to continue against the D-backs, who rank bottom-three with an 83 wRC+ this season.
Jon Lester (L), 11%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: The Cardinals entered Friday’s action having won 18 of their last 19 games, and Lester certainly did his part in the team’s longest winning streak in franchise history. The veteran left-hander has delivered a 2.66 ERA over his last seven turns, collecting five wins during that stretch. Although the peripherals don’t back up that low ERA, Lester does get a soft landing spot on Saturday. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs are striking out an MLB-worst 27.6% of the time. The Cards already have the second Wild Card wrapped up, but five innings from Lester is still a solid bet.
Bullpen: If you’re scrounging for saves as we enter the final weekend, a pair of Barlows are worth your attention. The Rangers’ Joe Barlow has netted four saves over the last two weeks, and the Royals’ Scott Barlow has secured three. Both relievers are available in at least 60% of ESPN leagues.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Danny Jansen (R), 2%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (LHP John Means): The Blue Jays, who are still vying for a Wild Card spot, have been getting plenty of production behind the plate lately. Jansen has put up a .405 wOBA in September, and Alejandro Kirk owns a .415 wOBA versus lefties this season. Whoever gets the nod on Saturday is worth streaming.
First Base — Hunter Dozier (R), 27%, Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Griffin Jax): Dozier has been a well below-average hitter this season, but he’s at least finishing on a strong note. He’s batting .300/.343/.717 over his last 19 games with five homers and 13 RBI, and he should keep on mashing against Jax, who can’t seem to keep the ball in the park (2.7 HR/9).
Second Base — Kyle Farmer (R), 20%, Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Max Kranick): After hitting just .220/.290/.336 before the All-Star break, Farmer has been one of the second half’s biggest surprises, batting .306/.344/.496 across 62 games. His stick should stay hot in Saturday’s matchup against Kranick, the owner of a 6.23 ERA over his first eight-big league starts.
Third Base — Yandy Diaz (R), 10%, Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (LHP Jordan Montgomery): For streaming purposes, Diaz should only be used when he has the platoon advantage, and that’s the situation he finds himself in on Saturday. He’s put up a .296/.373/.457 triple slash against lefties this season, and he’ll enjoy a nice park upgrade at Yankee Stadium.
Shortstop — Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L), 43%, Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Hans Crouse): Chisholm has battled inconsistency this season, but this is still an exciting skill set for fantasy purposes. In addition to a power/speed combo that should bring many 20/20 season in the future, Jazz gets the platoon edge against an inexperienced righty on Saturday.
Corner Infield — Gavin Sheets (L), 1%, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Matt Manning): Sheets has been getting regular – but not quite everyday – playing time of late, but the White Sox might have a hard time keeping his bat out of the lineup in the playoffs. The 25-year-old has posted a .394 wOBA in September and has cracked homers in each of his last two games. Meanwhile, Manning’s 8.14 September ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Middle Infield — Andy Ibanez (R), 4%, Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland (RHP Triston McKenzie): At 28 years old, Ibanez is a late bloomer, but it’s hard to argue with the .317/.367/.512 triple slash he’s put up in the second half. And with eligibility at three different positions, he is easy to slide into your lineup. After a stretch of dominant starts, McKenzie has been hammered for 10 runs in his last two outings combined.
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Outfield — Myles Straw (R), 38%, Cleveland at Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles): It seems strange that Straw, who is closing in on 30 steals, is so widely available, but here we are. The speedster gets on base, scores runs, and swipes bags, and that’s not a skill set that’s easy to find. While Cleveland has nothing left to play for at this point, Straw will likely be motivated to register his first 30-steal season.
Outfield — Lane Thomas (R), 30%, Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox (Undecided): Amazingly, Thomas has been a top-five fantasy outfielder over the last month. During that stretch, he’s piled up the counting stats with seven homers, 21 RBI, 26 runs and three stolen bases. While his 2022 value will be difficult to gauge, he’s certainly a viable option to plug in this weekend.
Outfield — Lars Nootbaar (L), 1%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Adrian Sampson): The Cardinals could very well rest some of their starters over the weekend, which would allow Nootbaar to see some extra at-bats. Even with sporadic playing time, the 24-year-old has hit safely in four straight contests and even delivered his first two-homer game against the Cubs last Friday. With a sprint speed that ranks in the 82nd percentile, he offers some sneaky stolen-base potential, too.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.