Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Saturday
Here’s a look at Saturday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Elieser Hernandez (R), rostered in 27% of ESPN leagues, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves: Since returning from the injured list, Hernandez has posted a 3.90 ERA with a 9.2 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over seven starts. His velocity is basically where it was last season, and his slider has been a true put-away pitch. A matchup against Atlanta isn’t particularly favorable, but it’s not terrible either, as the Braves’ offense has been middle-of-the-road in the second half. On a day without any standout streamers, Hernandez looks pretty appealing.
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Cole Irvin (L), 31%, Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: Trusting Irvin on Saturday might require a leap of faith after the Blue Jays blasted him for seven runs in his last start. He’s also failed to make it past the fifth inning in three consecutive outings. Then again, his matchup against Texas is pretty much ideal. Not only do the Rangers have the worst offense in baseball since the All-Star break (74 wRC+), but they’re also the worst offense against left-handed pitching this season (79 wRC+). If there’s a time to bet on Irvin, this is it.
Luis Patino (R), 18%, Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers: Patino has battled inconsistency since joining Tampa’s rotation, but it’s hard not to like the potential. He pumps 96 mph with his fastball that gets lots of whiffs and also features a legit slider. The 21-year-old currently sports a 9.3 K/9, but based on his minor league K numbers, there’s even more of a strikeout ceiling here. On Saturday, we could see Patino flash some of that strikeout upside against the Tigers, who are fanning at a 25.5% clip versus righties.
Brady Singer (R), 18%, Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins: The season-long 4.58 ERA may be ugly, but Singer has found his rhythm of late, securing a 1.46 ERA over his last four starts. That stretch included two outings against the Astros and one versus the White Sox, so he wasn’t simply picking on bad offenses. Singer’s track record does mean we shouldn’t get too comfortable here, as his control issues can get him into trouble. Still, a Twins lineup that’s been below average since the break shouldn’t scare you off.
Chris Flexen (R), 65%, Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Because the above names are largely unexciting, I’ll give you a bonus arm who is still available in a decent number of leagues. Flexen has been rock-solid this season. He posted a 3.51 ERA before the break and has a 3.64 mark after. While he’s not missing may bats, he’s displayed terrific control (1.9 BB/9) and has done a good job keeping the ball in the park. Flexen has also taken advantage of the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, where he owns a 2.73 ERA this season. That’s where he’ll square off against the D-backs, the second-worst team in baseball versus right-handed pitching in 2021.
Bullpen: With Alex Reyes hitting a rough patch, Giovanny Gallegos has officially taken over the ninth-inning role in St. Louis. Gallegos has registered four saves over the last week and a half, including securing one-run leads against the Dodgers in back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday. Available in 58% of ESPN leagues, Gallegos should be relied on heavily down the stretch as the Cardinals try to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Tyler Stephenson (R), 26%, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Miles Mikolas): After a decent start in his return from the IL in mid-August, the bottom has fallen out for Mikolas, who sports an 8.03 ERA over his last three turns. Stephenson, who is batting .292/.358/.443 since the break, is a good way to get exposure to the Reds lineup. Tucker Barnhart is also a decent fill-in behind the plate should he got the nod over Stephenson.
First Base — LaMonte Wade Jr. (L), 13%, San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (RHP Zach Davies): Wade has done virtually all of his damage against right-handed pitching this season. His OPS versus righties sits at .911, while it’s just .399 against lefties. Wade should do some more damage against Davies on Saturday. The soft-tossing righty has been slammed for a 7.54 ERA over his last eight starts.
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Second Base — Josh Harrison (R), 49%, Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers (LHP Kolby Allard): Harrison has cemented himself as Oakland’s leadoff man, which gives him plenty of running-scoring potential ahead of Starling Marte and Matt Olson. The veteran infielder is batting .331/.379/.529 since the break, while Allard owns a 6.70 ERA during that same timeframe.
Third Base — Jonathan Villar (S), 49%, New York Mets vs. New York Yankees (RHP Corey Kluber): We highlighted Villar in Thursday’s Notes, but he got the day off, so we’ll give him another chance on Saturday against Kluber, who has struggled since returning to action. Villar has been a fantasy force over the last month, batting .330 with seven bombs and four stolen bases.
Shortstop — Freddy Galvis (S), 9%, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies (LHP Kyle Freeland): Galvis should be in the lineup with a lefty on the mound for the Rockies. The switch-hitter sports a 121 wRC+ versus southpaws this season while often slotting into the heart of the Phillies’ order. For his part, Freeland is surrendering a .358 wOBA to left-handed batters.
Corner Infield — Bobby Dalbec (R), 21%, Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (RHP Dylan Cease): Dalbec clubbed 10 dingers in 71 first-half games, and he’s already belted 10 homers in 41 games in the second half. Most of that damage has come over the last few weeks, as the slugger is batting .343 with nine bombs and 28 RBI in his last 23 games. As it happens, Saturday’s venue – Guaranteed Rate Field – is great for power.
Middle Infield — Nicky Lopez (L), 37%, Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (RHP Michael Pineda): Lopez’s frantic stolen-base pace has slowed in recent weeks, but he still has 11 steals since the All-Star break to go along with a .330 batting average and 25 runs scored. The speedster gets the platoon edge against Jax, the owner of a bloated 8.20 ERA over his last five outings.
Outfield — Josh Lowe (L), 5%, Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers (RHP Casey Mize): The latest hot prospect call-up, Lowe was promoted on Wednesday after batting .282/.369/.520 with 21 homers and 24 steals in 98 games at Triple-A. It remains to be seen whether he’ll play every day, as the Rays have a tendency to mix and match, but he should be in there with Mize, a right-hander, on the mound. Mize, meanwhile, has been tagged for a .357 wOBA by lefty bats this season.
Outfield — Lane Thomas (R), 9%, Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Wil Crowe): Since being acquired by the Nationals, Thomas is batting .300/.380/.500 in 22 games and has established himself as the team’s table-setter at the top of the lineup. He should stay hot against Crowe, the lowest-ranked hurler on Saturday’s slate.
Outfield — Jo Adell (R), 13%, Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (RHP Luis Garcia): The former first-round pick is starting to come around. Since Sept. 1, the 22-year-old has slugged three homers, driven in eight runs, and posted a cool .391 batting average. A matchup against Garcia may not be overly favorable, but Minute Maid Park caters well to Adell’s right-handed power stroke.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.