Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Saturday
Here are Saturday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Adbert Alzolay (R), rostered in 18% of ESPN leagues, Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks: The results haven’t always been there with Alzolay, due in part to his struggles keeping the ball in the park, but he’s shown glimpses of promise. Despite the 4.66 ERA, he possesses a 3.73 xFIP and a wipeout slider – a pitch he throws 44.1% of the time – that fuels a 10.0 career K/9 rate. His walk rate this season is also a career best 2.6 BB/9. Even if Alzolay doesn’t have his best stuff on Saturday, he gets a soft landing spot against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 29th in baseball with an 84 wRC+ this season.
Jake Odorizzi (R), 52%, Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox: A road start against the White Sox is obviously a less than ideal matchup, but Odorizzi still deserves consideration despite the tough spot. The veteran right-hander has surrendered just three earned runs over his last five starts combined, giving him a miniscule 1.04 ERA during that stretch. Odorizzi doesn’t miss a ton of bats and is allowing more hard contact than you’d like to see, so there is some risk here against a potent lineup. Then again, he’s been relatively stable all season, and the Astros offense always puts him in good position to pick up a win.
Kwang Hyun Kim (L), 26%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants: One of the few stable pieces in the Cardinals rotation, Kim has been the picture of consistency lately, allowing zero or one run in five of his last six starts. He sports a 1.95 ERA over that stretch, lowering his season-long ERA to 3.11. Kim isn’t a guy who’s going to rack up Ks, but he’s done a good job avoiding hard contact, as his 4.2% barrel rate ranks top-20 in baseball. The first-place Giants do pose a decent threat, but they’re less effective against lefties, and Kim spun seven shutout frames against them earlier this month.
Alex Cobb (R), 23%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: Cobb has produced up-and-down results this season, but ultimately, there are more positives here than negatives. His 4.23 ERA is backed up by a 2.60 FIP and 3.03 xFIP, he’s keeping the ball in the yard with a 56.5% ground ball rate, and his K/9 sits at a career-best 10.1. Cobb allowed zero earned runs in 5 2/3 frames against Seattle right before the break, and he draws the Mariners again on Saturday. The Mariners have been a bottom-tier offense all season long, and the return of Jarred Kelenic isn’t enough to make this lineup intimidating.
Zach Thompson (R), 39%, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: It’s been only five starts, but those five starts have been awfully impressive for the 27-year-old right-hander. Thompson owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 across his first 24 big-league innings. That includes three combined starts against the Red Sox and Braves, so he’s not simply taking advantage of weak offenses. Thompson will undoubtedly hit some speed bumps in the second half, but the Phillies have been well below average against right-handed pitching this season, putting him firmly in the streamer discussion on Saturday.
Bullpen
Ian Kennedy is a candidate to be traded in a couple of weeks, but for now he’s the locked-in closer in Texas, so there’s still time to squeeze some value out of him. The veteran right-hander has secured 15 saves this season to go along with a 2.67 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.5 K/9, and he’s still available in nearly 50% of ESPN leagues.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Sean Murphy (R), 49%, Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland (RHP Cal Quantrill): Murphy has been a top-10 fantasy catcher over the last month, and his 43 RBI rank him second among catchers, so it’s no surprise that his rostership is creeping closer to the 50% mark. On Saturday, the Oakland backstop has a good chance to tee off Quantrill, who owns a 6.27 ERA as a starter this season.
First Base — Garrett Cooper (R), 27%, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Vince Velasquez): You wouldn’t know it from his rostered percentage, but Cooper has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last month. Cooper’s last 33 games have seen him hit .388/.492/.680 with seven homers, 22 RBI and 20 runs. After producing a nice stretch in May, Velasquez has fallen apart with a 7.82 ERA over his last eight outings.
Second Base — Brad Miller (L), 5%, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins (Undecided): Miller hit a cold stretch in June, registering a 0.59/.256/.147 triple slash. However, he’s turned things back on in July, hitting .375/.444/1.000 with three dingers in nine games. Getting the platoon edge in an offense-friendly park with eligibility at four different positions, Miller carries plenty of streaming value on Saturday.
Third Base — Yandy Diaz (R), 14%, Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves (LHP Max Fried): Fried presents a tough challenge on Saturday, but Diaz has historically fared much better against southpaws in his career. He’s also ended the first half on a strong note, batting .333/.419/.630 with two homers in his last eight games.
Shortstop — Jonathan Villar (S), 23%, New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (Undecided): If you can get past the .235 batting average, Villar can provide plenty of production in the other categories. In 68 games this season, he’s posted nine homers, eight steals, and a double-digit walk rate. The fact that he can be used at three different positions only boosts his value as a streaming option.
Corner Infield — C.J. Cron (R), 47%, Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (RHP Walker Buehler): Cron continues to flirt with the 50% rostered mark. Over the last 23 games, he’s put up a .987 OPS with seven homers, five doubles, and 17 RBI. A tough bout against Walker Buehler is on tap, but I’ll still take the Coors Field matchup.
Middle Infield — Cesar Hernandez (S), 34%, Cleveland at Oakland Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea): Hernandez is hitting .300/.364/.600 with four home runs over the last 13 games as Cleveland’s leadoff hitter. Not only does he get the platoon advantage on Saturday, but most of his power numbers this season have come versus lefties, as he’s popped nine dingers in just 117 at-bats against them.
Outfield — Andrew Vaughn (R), 43%, Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros (RHP Jake Odorizzi): Fantasy managers have been waiting all season for Vaughn to meet his sky-high expectations as 2019’s No. 3 overall pick. The 23-year-old surely has some more growing pains ahead, but he’s mashing right now. Vaughn’s last 12 games have seen him hit .395/.417/.744 with four bombs, nine RBI and 10 runs.
Outfield — Darin Ruf (R), 4%, San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Kwang Hyun Kim): Ruf only enters the streaming discussion when there’s a lefty on the hill, and that’s the case on Saturday. The Giants outfielder has produced a whopping .476 wOBA against lefty pitchers this season, while Kim has been much more susceptible to right-handed swingers.
Outfield — Jace Peterson (L), 28%, Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Luis Castillo): At 31 years old, Peterson is unlikely to reinvent himself, but he’s at least made himself fantasy relevant over the last few weeks. He’s hitting .353 with a pair of homers and three steals over his last 18 games, and he’s been a top-15 fantasy outfielder over the last month. Castillo has righted the ship after a rough April and May, but lefty batters have hit him much harder in his career.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.