Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Monday
That’s where we come into play. Here are Monday’s top options to keep your lineup at full strength. Everyone is rostered in fewer than half of all ESPN leagues.
Mike Minor (L), rostered in 23% of ESPN leagues, Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Minor has pitched better than his 4.83 ERA as all of his ERA estimators hover near 4.00. Lately, he’s been even better, fanning 31 with just eight walks and two homers allowed over his past four starts, spanning 23 innings. Monday brings an interleague affair with the visiting Pirates who tote the league’s lowest scoring offense into Kaufmann Stadium.
James Kaprielian (R), 38%, Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners: Kaprielian has been impressive in his first three starts this season, the last being a scoreless seven-inning outing against Monday’s opponent, the Mariners. This time, Seattle will be the home team, but Kaprielian won’t be fazed as his first two starts were on the road, including his 2021 debut in Fenway Park where he limited the potent Red Sox to just one run in five frames. For the season, Kaprielian has whiffed 19 in 17 2/3 innings.
Vince Velasquez (R), 13%, Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: Since allowing four runs in 1 1/3 innings to open the season, Velasquez has posted a 2.14 ERA. That said, his xFIP and SIERA say it should be double that mark, but 4.00 is still below league average and usable in favorable matchups. It’s never comfortable pitching in the Great American Ballpark, but Velasquez is used to pitching in a good hitter’s venue with Citizens Bank Park his home. He’s also catching the Reds at a good time as Cincinnati is averaging the fifth fewest runs in the league for the past two weeks.
Garrett Richards (R), 25%, Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Monday will be a good test for Richards as the Red Sox have played a relatively soft schedule. To be fair, Richards faced the Braves and Blue Jays in his prior two starts, but overall he’s enjoyed an easy schedule. Walks are his primary issue and he’s vowed to get the free passes under control.
Bullpen: With a twin bill in Cleveland, the Indians and White Sox are prime places to look for fill-in relievers. The White Sox did not hesitate to use Liam Hendriks to wrap up both games of Saturday’s twin bill but they may not want to repeat it just two days later, rendering Aaron Bummer a speculative play. Cleveland also played a pair on Sunday so checking the box scores could give a hint who they may turn to on Monday. Emmanuel Clase, Nick Wittgren and Brian Shaw are possibilities, especially if James Karinchak is called upon in one or both of Sunday’s contests.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Victor Caratini (S), 4%, San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs (RHP Trevor Williams): With Aaron Nola back on the IL, Caratini will again do most of the squatting for the Padres. The switch-hitter is a sneaky play in points leagues as he’s walking at an 11% clip. Getting on base could come in handy on Monday as the Padres draw Williams, the second-lowest ranked hurler on the ledger.
First Base — Seth Brown (L), 9%, Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (RHP Logan Gilbert): Gilbert’s introduction to the Show has not gone as well as hoped, though his future remains bright. Brown has been in a rut since homering in three straight games about a week ago, but he’s displayed power when enjoying the platoon edge.
Second Base — Cesar Hernandez (S), 27%, Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox (Doubleheader): Chances are slim anyone will play both ends of the doubleheader since Cleveland will be playing their third and fourth game in two days. As a switch-hitter, Hernandez has the best chance. His .663 OPS is pacing to be its lowest since 2014, but Hernandez’s underlying skills are better than the previous two season’s where he’s posted marks of .741 and .763.
Third Base — Jake Lamb (L), under 1%, Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (Doubleheader): Both of the Indians scheduled starters are righthanded so Lamb will start at least one of the contests. The veteran has been producing when given a chance, hitting safely in his past four starts, including a pair of long balls.
Shortstop — Ronald Torreyes (R), under 1%, Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (LHP Wade Miley): Torreyes has slashed a tidy .375/.423/.458 helping to fill in for Didi Gregorius while the regular shortstop has been on the IL. Torreyes gets the nod against southpaws so expect to see him in the lineup with Miley on the hill.
Corner Infield — Jonathan Villar (S), 30%, New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Merrill Kelly): Villar has been a frequent visitor here lately as he checks several boxes. Switch-hitter so you don’t worry about handedness of pitcher? Check. Leading off to maximize at bats? Check. Playing nearly every day? Check. The icing on the cake is Villar carried a five-game hitting streak into the Sunday night affair, slashing .375/.500/.625 with a steal over that span.
Middle Infield — Jorge Polanco (S), 50%, Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez): Given it was a Sunday lineup where teams often mix things up, but in the first game since Max Kepler was placed on the IL, Polanco slotted at leadoff. Some of the leap in the order was out of need, but to his credit, Polanco has posted a .286/.375/.643 line in four games since returning from injury.
Outfield — Avisail Garcia (R), 48%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers (Undecided): Sometimes, it’s risky trusting a batter without knowing who is on the mound but since Garcia took Max Scherzer deep on Sunday, platoon edge isn’t a necessity. Plus, Detroit doesn’t have anyone available to cause concern. Garcia has quietly produced, as he’s on about a 30 home run, 15 stolen base pace.
Outfield — Alex Kirilloff (L), 45%, Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez): Young batters will go through ups and downs, so its best to pick and choose when they deserve trust. A matchup against the lowest ranked pitcher in one of the best hitting venues in the league seems like the ideal time to tag in the rookie.
Outfield — Mike Tauchman (L), under 1%, San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Dylan Bundy): Tauchman is a tough sell as he’s been disappointing since being acquired by the Giants. However, I’m a believer hot and cold streaks can be snapped at any moment and Tauchman has shown he’s a solid hitter. While the same goes for pitching, it often takes hurlers a little longer to right the ship and Bundy has been sinking for three straight outings, surrendering a whopping 17 runs in only 9 2/3 frames.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.