Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Monday
Please keep in mind the first game is a 3:00 p.m. EST contest in Dunedin, so don’t get caught short and remember the early lineup lock in some leagues.
David Peterson (L), rostered in 8% of ESPN leagues, New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: Using a lefty at home against the Rockies is always a good idea. This season, it’s reaping even more benefits than usual. Factor in Peterson is fanning an impressive 29% of the batters he faces, and the southpaw is one of the top plays overall, not just among streamers.
Austin Gomber (L), 7%, Colorado Rockies at New York Mets: In the four starts since Gomber was shellacked by the Giants in San Francisco, he’s posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 24 punch outs in 22 1/3 innings. Gomber is in a good spot to continue the rebound facing a depleted Mets lineup in one of the best pitching venues in the league.
Spencer Turnbull (R), 28%, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians: Turnbull has a chance to enter the record book alongside Johnny Vander Meer. Normally, this would be a throwaway line, but the Indians have already been on the losing end of two no-hitters. Obviously, expecting Turnbull to continue compiling hitless innings is hyperbolic, but recognizing he’s developing into a decent hurler is reasonable. He’s always ranked high on the spin rate leaderboard, suggesting if he could harness his stuff there was another level. So far, Turnbull is doing just that, walking just 5.7% of the hitters he faces.
Yusei Kikuchi (L), 42%, Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics: Kikuchi is the best pitcher of the four spot starters, but he draws the toughest matchup. The lefty has strung together four consecutive quality starts, featuring 33 whiffs in 26 1/3 innings.
Bullpen: Perhaps we should have listened to ESPN Fantasy Sports Research Associate Kyle Soppe after all as Tyler Chatwood has finally found a niche as a dominant reliever. With so many teams enjoying a day off, Monday is ideal for back-filling with relievers. Ross Stripling isn’t going to work all that deep and with their offense, the Blue Jays are never out of a game. This adds up to giving Chatwood a shot to vulture a win.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Danny Jansen (R), 2%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Ryan Yarbrough): This is more a conduit to getting a taste of the Blue Jays lineup in a day game against a shaky pitcher than confidence in Jansen. That said, since bottoming out with a .095 average, Janson has slashed .333/.429/.389. Strikeouts are his main issue, but Yarbrough has fanned only 35 in 46 2/3 innings.
First Base — Miguel Cabrera (R), 4%, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians (LHP Sam Hentges): The Tigers have one of the most favorable schedules this week, beginning with a matchup against Hentges who checks in as the lowest rated pitcher on today’s ledger. Cabrera is still dangerous against lefties, plus he’s been swinging well lately, carrying a .340/.415/.468 over his past 12 games into Sunday’s contest.
Second Base — Brendan Rodgers (R), 6%, Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (LHP David Peterson): Now that he’s back from injury, let’s hope the Rockies will finally give Rodgers extended playing time. At minimum, he should be in the lineup with a lefty on the hill. The 24-year-old infielder has lost some of his prospect luster, but after slashing .361/.420/.620 at Triple-A Albuquerque since 2019, Rodgers has nothing to prove on the farm.
Third Base — Josh Fuentes (R), 26%, Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (LHP David Peterson): Fuentes incurs a huge park downgrade, but he’s hit lefty pitching well this season, recording a .969 OPS against them.
Shortstop — Santiago Espinal (R), under 1%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Ryan Yarbrough): A shortstop by trade, Espinal’s playing time will see a spike filling in at the hot corner with Cavan Biggio convalescing on the IL. Espinal wasn’t a top prospect, though he did record a .317/.360/.433 line with Triple-A Buffalo in 2019 along with impressing at the Blue Jays alternate site.
Corner Infield — Jonathan Schoop (R), 6%, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians (LHP Sam Hentges): Schoop still isn’t tearing it up, but he has registered a .267/.353/.433 slash over the past week. He’s in a favorable spot to maintain the momentum with the platoon edge for a home date against a middling southpaw.
Middle Infield — Taylor Walls (S), 5%, Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Ross Stripling): No, it’s not Wander Franco or Vidal Brujan, but don’t hold it against Walls, the higher-ranked prospects should debut soon. Walls is a superior defender and earned the callup after slashing .327/.468/.490 to open the season with Triple-A Buffalo. Walls can also steal bases, though his poor success rate could limit chances.
Outfield — Andrew Vaughn (R), 42%, Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Kwang Hyun Kim): As is often the case, Vaughn’s rookie campaign has had its shares of peaks and valleys. He’s currently mired in another slump but keep in mind slumps can be snapped at any time. Plus, he’s handled southpaws through the ups and downs, slashing 267/.421/.533 with the platoon edge.
Outfield — Lorenzo Cain (R), 31%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres (LHP Blake Snell): On short slates, sometimes you need to bite the bullet and stream against top end pitchers. That said, prior to his last outing, Snell had been in a rut. Even so, Cain is experienced enough to trust against anyone though he is in a rut of his own. The deciding factor is Cain hits at or near the top of the Brewers lineup and he enjoys the platoon edge.
Outfield — Corey Dickerson (L), 20%, Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Zach Eflin): Dickerson has yet to get the power stroke going this season. Not only is his fly ball rate down, but his usual above average exit velocity on fly balls is down. Perhaps this is just a stubborn call, but I trust a career’s worth of data over seven weeks of numbers and expect Dickerson to find his strike.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.