Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Monday
If the projected Game Scores are an indication, pitching should dominate as 11 of the 16 probable starters check in at 50 or above, with two just missing the cut, and the other three to be determined. The problem with a slate of this nature is there aren’t many pitching options below the 50% threshold we use to identify streamers. Don’t fret, though, as a trio of arms are indeed there for those wanting to fortify the pitching side of the ledger.
In the aggregate, batters line up for a tough day but, by calling on some old friends, you can keep your offense strong. With all that in mind, here are Monday’s picks, each available in at least 50% of all ESPN leagues.
Rich Hill (L), rostered in 40% of ESPN leagues, New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: When the league first started checking pitchers for grip enhancers, Hill’s spin rate fell markedly. Some surmised this was what fueled the Tampa Bay Rays’ willingness to part with the veteran left-hander at the deadline. However, Hill made the necessary adjustments with the Mets, registering a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his return to the Senior Circuit. On Monday, Hill draws a Cardinals offense that has been hitting lefties hard lately, but the southpaw is in a groove with 20 Ks and only two free passes over his last 17 frames.
Jake Odorizzi (R), 34%, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers: While everything has reportedly smoothed over from Odorizzi’s salty reaction to being asked how he feels about being a five-inning pitcher, the numbers indicate it’s the proper approach. To wit, the right-hander’s ERA is 3.83 in the 87 innings Odorizzi has thrown in the first five frames. In the 7 2/3 stanzas he’s thrown after the fifth, Odorizzi has allowed eight earned runs, fueled by four homers. Odorizzi has worked at least five innings for six straight starts, posting a 2.90 ERA in that span and now he draws one of the weakest lineups against left-handers.
Paolo Espino (R), 4%, Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: Espino is a good example of why focusing on ERA can be a myopic approach. Specifically, he’s recorded a 5.03 mark over his last four starts. However, he also registered a low 1.17 WHIP while fanning 25 (with just four walks) in those 19 2/3 innings. The bottom line is that Espino is pitching well and is in a good spot to continue, facing the offense with the worst wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate facing righties over the last month.
Bullpen: Sticking with the Nationals, Kyle Finnegan is 8-for-9 in save chances since inheriting the closer’s job after the trade deadline. In those 17 innings, he’s boasting a 1.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The best part is that Finnegan is available in 77% of ESPN leagues. Plus, Washington plays six games at home this week against two of the weakest road teams in the league — the Marlins and the Rockies.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Alejandro Kirk (R), 13%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Ryan Yarbrough): Kirk checks all the boxes. He’s one of the few available players on the most productive lineup in the league. Further, he enjoys the platoon edge in a good hitting venue. Finally, all this goodness comes from the catcher spot, traditionally the hardest position to fortify with a spot-starter.
First Base — Brandon Belt (L), 22%, San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (RHP Yu Darvish): Even though Belt is hitting lefties better than ever, he’s been relegated to the busier side of a platoon as Gabe Kapler is having a lot of success with the Strat-O-Matic approach. That said, Belt is also crushing right-handers.
Second Base — Abraham Toro (S), 28%, Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez): Welcome to fun with small sample sizes. Toro has knocked all 10 of his homers against right-handers. On the other hand, his OBP against left-handers is .393, compared to just .316 facing righties. At the end of the day, what’s important is that Toro bats in the fantasy-friendly five-hole, regardless of who is on the mound. On Monday, he’ll face a left-hander who has given up 28 hits — including four homers — over his last 20 1/3 frames.
Third Base — Bobby Dalbec (R), 27%, Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners (RHP Logan Gilbert): Righties, lefties, who cares? Lately, it doesn’t matter as August’s Rookie of the Month is picking up where he left off with a .303/.361/.697 line in September through Saturday’s action.
Shortstop — Nick Ahmed (R), 3%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (Undecided): Clayton Kershaw is earmarked to make his return, which means Ahmed is likely to be in the leadoff spot. Kershaw isn’t likely to pitch more than four innings, but that’s enough for Ahmed to get a couple of chances with the platoon edge — and he’s been dangerous in those scenarios.
Corner Infield — Nathaniel Lowe (L), 32%, Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros (RHP Jake Odorizzi): While Lowe’s 26% strikeout rate is a tad higher than desired, it is his career best. In addition, Lowe’s 12.1% walk rate is a new personal-high. The improved plate skills have translated to the highest exit velocity and hard-hit rate of Lowe’s career.
Middle Infield — Luis Garcia (L), 1%, Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Sandy Alcantara): The Sunday notes indicated that Garcia has been blistering the ball lately, as he had smoked seven balls over 100 mph in the previous five games. The 21-year-old then crushed his fifth home run of the season. Riding the batted-ball streak worked once. Let’s do it again.
Outfield — Brett Gardner (L), 2%, New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP John Gant): Despite being on pace for the worst wOBA of his career, injuries to his teammates and Gardner’s ability to play center field has afforded him more playing time than the Yankees initially intended. That said, the 37-year-old outfielder has something left in the tank, as evidenced by a .310/.355/.586 line in September.
Outfield — Harrison Bader (R), 11%, St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (LHP Rich Hill): Bader entered the season with a 29.1% strikeout rate. With about three weeks left in the 2021 campaign, Bader is fanning at an improved 19.6% clip. He’s whiffed just 16% of the time in September, helping to fuel a .314/.351/.543 line this month.
Outfield — Luis Arraez (L), 26%, Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (Undecided): While many look for a big splash out of their fill-in players, early in the week it makes sense to play conservatively and simply look to get something out of your streamer, especially in points leagues. Arraez doesn’t fill up the homers or steals columns, but he quietly has a .363 OBP for the season, which provides a nice floor in point formats.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.