Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Monday
Stacking isn’t generally used in traditional fantasy, save for desperate situations in head-to-head formats when you’re behind and need to make up points in bunches. The other potential chance to stack is on extremely short slates where the available inventory is limited.
Monday features just three games, so it’s a good opportunity to stack. Ideally, you’ll be partnering players with those already on your team. If you’re deciding between two similar players, choose the one with a teammate already in your lineup.
Despite the short slate, there is a trio of arms meeting our criteria of no more than 50% rostership. There would be a fourth, but Nick Pivetta’s resurgence has upped his rostership to 72%. Those in very shallow leagues should take a minute to check on Pivetta’s availability as the Red Sox host the Marlins in an interleague affair.
Here are the players to acquire on Monday. Some of the batters are with stacking in mind; others simply are in a good spot. Regardless of your approach, don’t dilly-dally, the sooner you fortify your lineup the better, as the supply falls well short of the demand.
Adbert Alzolay (R), rostered in 43% of ESPN leagues, Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Last time out, Alzolay limited the Padres to one run in five frames, fanning seven along the way. For those wondering, there is no evidence a team benefits from seeing the same pitcher twice in a week. That said, the rematch is in PETCO Park, favoring San Diego. Even so, Alzolay’s 22.1% K-BB% is among the league’s best, so this warrants deployment with limited options.
Dylan Bundy (R), 50%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: There is no sugar-coating it: Bundy has been horrible lately. He was sitting pretty with a 4.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP after six starts. Admittedly, a 4.00 isn’t all that attractive, but his estimators pegged it half a run lower. The only problem was Bundy then faced four buzz-saw lineups and was lit up for a 12.33 ERA and 1.89 WHIP with seven homers allowed in 15 1/3 innings. Monday brings a manageable Royals lineup into Angels Stadium, a top pitching venue.
Ryan Weathers (L), 18%, San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: This pick comes with the warning that Weathers isn’t likely to work deep into the contest, and since it will likely be a close, low-scoring affair, the chance to secure his third career win is remote. He’s also not compiling strikeouts in bunches, so avoid this outing if you’re on a games-started or total-innings limit, as it isn’t an efficient use of those constraints.
Bullpen: Granted, most leagues have limited benches, so you probably can make only a couple of moves, but if you’re happy with your batters, inserting some dominant relievers on an abbreviated slate is a means of squeezing out more points. The Padres’ Miguel Diaz is one of the better options, since he usually works multiple innings and could vulture a win. He’s notched at least one punch-out in all eight appearances, fanning 19 in 17 1/3 stanzas.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Max Stassi (R), 2%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals (Undecided): As you might imagine, the options behind the plate are scant. Stassi is chosen assuming the Royals’ starter isn’t especially daunting. If this is the case, the Angels are a team ripe for a stack.
First base — Patrick Wisdom (R), 20%, Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (LHP Ryan Weathers): Granted, chasing a hot streak often shows poor wisdom, but in this case, it’s as much about the platoon edge and a prime spot in the batting order, as it is Wisdom slugging four homers over the past week.
Second base — Christian Arroyo (R), 1%, Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez): Lopez is a tough pitcher, but Fenway Park can be daunting. The joint will be jumping with increased capacity as the home team returns from a long road trip. This is another solid spot for a stack, especially if one or two of the Red Sox’s stalwarts is already on your roster. Arroyo’s playing time is increasing, and he has responded by toting a five-game hitting streak into Sunday’s action.
Third base — Hunter Dozier (R), 26%, Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (RHP Dylan Bundy): With Adalberto Mondesi back on the IL, Dozier has a better chance of staying in the lineup, since both he and Kelvin Gutierrez can play with Whit Merrifield patrolling the keystone. Dozier is preferred, as he has more power potential facing a homer-prone hurler. Olivares is also back with the Royals and is also in the mix for an outfield spot, where he is in a favorable spot to swipe a bag against one of the weakest batteries defending the running game.
Shortstop — David Fletcher (R), 55%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals (Undecided): Streaming a nine-hole hitter is usually frowned upon, with two exceptions. The first is stolen-base potential, and while Fletcher isn’t a burner, he has swiped three bags in four tries. More importantly, he’s useful in a stack, assuming you have a couple of Angels hitting in the top third of the Angels’ lineup.
Corner infield — Danny Santana (S), 2%, Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez): Staying with stacking theory, Santana is one of the few available conduits to having exposure to a potentially dangerous lineup. Granted, he’s cooled considerable since first joining the club, but Santana wouldn’t be the first to get recharged upon returning to Fenway Park after a long road trip.
Middle infield — Jurickson Profar (S), 49%, San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Adbert Alzolay): Another abbreviated slate ploy is filling in with players capable of padding your stolen base total. Profar may not be viewed in this manner, but he is 9 for 10 this season, bringing his ledger since 2018 to an impressive 35 for 38, a nearly immaculate 92% success rate.
Outfield — Hunter Renfroe (R), 37%, Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez): It doesn’t matter who has been on the hill lately, Renfroe is producing, as he carried a nine-game hitting streak into Sunday’s action. In that stretch, he slashed .484/.515/.871.
Outfield — Corey Dickerson (L), 19%, Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta): Pivetta is susceptible to left-handed power, and even though the surface stats don’t reflect it, Dickerson has been hitting the ball with authority lately.
Outfield — Ian Happ (S), 50%, Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (LHP Ryan Weathers): Happ is mired in another slump, but just as he snapped out of the doldrums earlier this season, he’s primed to do so again. Strikeouts are an issue, but he had fanned only once in the three games prior to Sunday’s contest, drawing four walks in that span. This is often a harbinger of a breakout.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.