Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Friday
The nightly no-hitter watch will be in Motor City as Gerrit Cole takes on the Tigers. In Houston, Framber Valdez will make his 2021 debut against the Padres. The Astros were concerned the southpaw may require season-ending surgery after fracturing his left ring finger in the spring, but he was able to avoid the knife and rehab the digit faster than expected.
Here are Friday’s players in a favorable spot to get your Memorial Day Weekend off on the right foot. Everyone touted is available in over half of all ESPN leagues.
Martin Perez (L), rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: While the resurgence of Garrett Richards and Nick Pivetta is drawing most of the attention, Perez has also benefited from the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Bush. The southpaw’s 13.6% K-BB% is by far the best of his career but the primary reason for his success is surrendering only three homers in 45 2/3 innings. Perez’s luck in that department should run out but he should be sage Friday facing a Marlins lineup with below average power.
Randy Dobnak (R), 2%, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: After impressing in the spring but still not making the Twins rotation, Dobnak opened the season in the bullpen where he struggled until being sent to Triple-A St. Paul. Dobnak made three starts on the farm before being recalled. In his first start for Minnesota, Dobnak hurled six scoreless frames in Cleveland, fanning four. Next up is a Royals lineup with the 12th lowest weighted on base average (wOBA) with a righty on the hill.
Adbert Alzolay (R), 22%, Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: In his first eight starts, Alzolay has been very good, very lucky and very unlucky. His 22.6% K-BB% is a respectable 20th among pitchers working at least 40 frames. Alzolay’s .210 BABIP is extremely fortunate. Meanwhile, he’s been snake bit with a high 23.7% HR/FB mark along with a low 69.3% left on base mark.
Justus Sheffield (L), 8%, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: Sheffield is best deployed only if you’re behind and need to make up ground in a head-to-head format. He’s a below average pitcher incurring a favorable matchup at home in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. That said, the lefty’s ERA estimators get him about half a run lower than his actual 5.11 ERA but with just 34 punch outs in 44 stanzas, Sheffield’s margin of error is thin.
Bullpen: It was Kyle Zimmer, not Josh Staumont capturing the Royals last save. There has been no formal announcement of a changing of the guard, but it’s curious why Staumont didn’t get the call after not pitching the previous couple of days. At the very least, Zimmer is someone to consider as a one-day fill-in when faced with an open pitching spot.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Mitch Garver (R), 39%, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (LHP Kris Bubic): After a slow start, Garver has slashed .286/.417/.551 in May with much of the damage coming with the platoon edge. So far this season. Garver is hitting righthanded pitching better then lefties, but since 2019 he’s posted a 1.006 OPS with the platoon edge.
First Base — Danny Santana (S), 7%, Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Cody Poteet): Santana fanned seven times in his first 17 plate appearances with the Red Sox, but he also cranked two homers and swiped a base. Excessive strikeouts have plagued Santana since 2018, but he fills up the other categories. He’s likely to move all around the diamond but should be in the lineup nearly every day.
Second Base — Jurickson Profar (S), 40%, San Diego Padres at Houston Astros (LHP Framber Valdez): Profar has always had good speed, but he was never in a scenario to show off his stolen base prowess. Last season, he was successful on seven of eight attempts in the abbreviated campaign. So far this year, he’s 8-for-9. Profar has been hitting high in the order lately, increasing his chances to run.
Third Base — Starlin Castro (R), 16%, Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (LHP Brett Anderson): Castro has cooled considerably, but he’s already a threat with a lefty on the bump. Anderson’s 4.34 ERA is around league average, but his estimators peg it higher.
Shortstop — Edmundo Sosa (R), 5%, St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (LHP Madison Bumgarner): Sosa has taken advantage of playing time with Nico Hoerner on the IL, carrying an eight-game hitting streak into Thursday’s tilt. Over that spell, he’s slashed an eye-popping .500/.581/.692 with two steals.
Corner Infield — Seth Brown (L), 6%, Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Alex Cobb): Cobb was initially slated to pitch Thursday before being pushed to Friday. Here’s what my colleague Mike Sheets had to say: “Brown is your classic platoon bat. He slots into the No. 2 spot in the batting order whenever a righty is on the mound, and that’s the case on Thursday. Brown owns a .301 ISO versus righties this season and has clubbed homers in three of his last five games, putting him in a great spot against Cobb, who has had homer issues in his career.”
Middle Infield — J.P. Crawford (L), 5%, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles): Crawford may not be the prototypical five-hole hitter but that’s where he’s been situated lately with a righty on the hill. Crawford’s strength is making contact which shouldn’t be an issue facing Lyles. Further, Lyles usually yields a lot of traffic on the bases (1.54 WHIP this season) so Crawford should have chances with ducks on the pond. ‘
Outfield – Josh Reddick (L), 1%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Johan Oviedo): It took a bit for Reddick to get going, but over his previous five games, he’s fanned only twice while slamming three doubles. It shouldn’t be long before he starts clearing the fence.
Outfield — Garrett Cooper (R), 28%, Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox (LHP Martin Perez): Cooper was scratched from Wednesday’s contest with a sore oblique, but he was able to pinch hit (and deliver) on Thursday so he’s likely be in the lineup for this interleague affair. Cooper has 17 hits in his last 37 trips to the dish and will enjoy the platoon edge. With the designated hitter in play, Adam Duvall has a chance to be in the lineup and is quite familiar with Fenway Park, pounding three homers in one game as a member of the Braves last season.
Outfield — Justin Upton (R), 19%, Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea): Who would have though moving Upton to leadoff would be the elixir? Since being elevated to the top spot, Upton has hit safely in all three games, including a pair of homers. He’s also fanned seven times, but does hold the platoon edge on Manaea.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.