Fantasy baseball daily notes — Pitcher and hitter rankings for Friday
It’s always good to get the weekend off on a strong note so here are the usual array of pitchers and batters in a favorable scenario. As is the custom, everyone is available in at least 50% of all ESPN league.
Madison Bumgarner (L), rostered in 26% of ESPN leagues, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: The controversy surrounding Bumgarner’s last start aside, one of the safest streaming ploys remains using a southpaw in a home tilt against the Rockies. Alex Wood is the latest example, as he fanned nine Rockies in six innings Wednesday night at Oracle Park. Prior to last week’s gem, Bumgarner has struggled, yielding four homers in his first four outings, spanning just 18 2/3 frames. However, the Rockies have slugged a league-low six homers in nine road affairs.
Chris Flexen (R), 12%, Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: One of the keys to successful in-season management is not getting fooled by preconceived notions. When we last saw Flexen, he was a swingman for the Mets and quite honestly one of the worst pitchers in the league. The righty spent the 2020 season toiling for the Doosan Bears in the KBO where he posted a 3.01 ERA in 21 starts. As is the norm overseas, Flexen learned to pitch backwards, using his breaking stuff to set up his fastball. He has continued that approach in his return to MLB, using his fastball just 33% of the time while increasing deployment of his slider, curve and changeup. Thus far, the results have been positive, though a 3.72 SIERA and 3.56 xFIP indicate his 2.74 ERA is about a run lower than his skills portend.
Joe Ross (R), 12%, Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: In his last start, Ross rebounded from a disaster outing where he allowed four homers in 4 1/3 innings, helping the Cardinals plate 10 runs in that span. In his other three efforts, Ross has yielded just one earned run in 17 stanzas. The 28-year-old righthander is in a good spot to tack on another solid performance facing a Marlins unit toting the eight-lowest weighted on base average along with the fifth highest strikeout rate into the nation’s capital.
John Gant (R), 5%, St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Gant is coming off a quality start against the Reds, holding the league’s top-scoring offense without a run for six frames. For the season, Gant has been a shot in the arm to the depleted Cardinals rotation, despite a 1-2 record. Gant has a chance for two straight wins facing a Pirates lineup scoring the eighth fewest runs per game in the majors.
Bullpen: With saves being more dispersed than ever, non-closers are becoming a more important fantasy assets, especially in points leagues and those with an innings cap. One of the keys in formats with an innings maximum is focusing on pitchers with a high strikeout rate. However, relievers sporting high strikeout rates often walk a lot of hitters. As such, K-BB% is a great down-and-dirty filter to identify useful relievers, even if they’re not compiling saves. The top five non-closers in that department so far are Caleb Thielbar (MIN), Cole Sulser (BAL), Trevor May (NYM), Miguel Castro (NYM) and Kolby Allard (TEX). Obviously, there is no guarantee the quintet keeps up their early season exploits but looking at K-BB% may put some added names on your radar. Someone a bit down the list with staying power is Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock (BOS). Whitlock has the advantage of throwing more innings and he’s already earned Alex Cora’s trust in high leverage scenarios.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2021 statistics
Catcher — Sean Murphy (R), 27%, Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles (LHP John Means): After starting the season 0-for-14 with eight strikeouts, Murphy has righted the ship, slashing .268/.375/.561 since April 10. Means is a tough southpaw, but Murphy has picked it up with the platoon edge and customarily bats sixth, which is high for a catcher.
First Base — Pavin Smith (L), 19%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Jon Gray): Smith has been playing a lot of first base with Christian Walker out but now may need to shift to right field as Kole Calhoun is dealing with a hamstring injury. Regardless of what glove Smith wears, he’s been productive with a chance to add more power if he can learn to loft more batted balls. Smith’s hard-hit rate is 52.5%, but his groundball rate is just under 50%.
Second Base — Kolten Wong (L), 46%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (RHP Dustin May): Wong has been raking since coming off the IL, slashing .524/.545/.952 in five starts though Wednesday’s action. The only problem is five of his hits have been for extra bases, limiting the chances to steal, something he should do frequently over the course of the next five months.
Third Base — J.D. Davis (R), 21%, New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Chase Anderson): When searching for batters to spot in a lineup, not enough consideration is given to the opposing team’s bullpen. This is especially true in the current landscape where relievers are accounting for more innings than ever. Whenever you can use a hitter facing a lesser starter on a team with a suspect bullpen, take advantage. Anderson is one of the lowest ranked starters on the slate while the Phillies bullpen is one of the more vulnerable units in the league.
Shortstop — Nico Hoerner (R), 14%, Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (LHP Wade Miley): Hoerner has populated this space a couple times this week. However, while he’s doing a good job and hitting near the top of the order, his inclusion is more about the state of the shortstop inventory than Hoerner’s output. This is a golden age at the position with myriad top options. However, there is a significant drop in talent, so if you need help, the pickings are slim. That said, Hoerner is set to enjoy the platoon edge over a mediocre lefty.
Corner Infield — Colin Moran (L), 36%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP John Gant): Be it by design or happenstance, Moran is going the other way more than usual, with good results. His expected batting average according to Statcast is pacing to set a new career high, though early season caveats apply.
Middle Infield — Jon Berti (R), 8%, Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (RHP Joe Ross): The Marlins’ Swiss Army knife should remain in the lineup for the foreseeable future with teammates Starling Marte, Brian Anderson and Jazz Chisholm all convalescing on the IL. After a slow start, Berti’s stick is coming around as he’s left the yard twice this week. Curiously, he’s been caught in both of his stolen base attempts. Look for Berti to reverse that soon after going 26 for 31 in 2019-2020.
Outfield — Nick Senzel (R), 30%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Jake Arrieta): According to Statcast’s metrics, Senzel deserves a better fate than his early .635 OPS. In addition, his plate skills are outstanding as he’s posted a career low 13.9% strikeout rate while walking at a personal best 11.1% clip.
Outfield — Guillermo Heredia (R), 11%, Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays (LHP Robbie Ray): Heredia has been a surprise as he’s helping fill in for Cristian Pache in center field, slashing an eye-popping .360/.467/.760 over his last eight games. Of course, he’s due for a fall, but he’s always handled southpaw pitching well and Ray continues to struggle with control and command.
Outfield — Tyler O’Neill (R), 10%, St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP JT Brubaker): Riding hot streaks is often a fool’s errand as they can snap at any moment. That said, when a player is fanning significantly less than usual, it’s often a sign he’s in a true groove and not just finding holes. Over his last five games, O’Neill’s strikeout rate is 16.7%, less than half his career mark. He’s also slashing .353/.389/.882 over that stretch.