Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Friday
In general, the approach for the final weekend is relying on pitchers and batters playing in games with playoff implications. The primary targets are on teams still vying for a playoff berth, though most clubs will still use their best lineup if they’re playing a team still battling for a postseason spot. Alternatively, younger players without health issues, especially if they’re auditioning for a 2022 job are safer bets to not only play but stay in for the full nine innings.
With that as a backdrop, here are Friday’s picks to start the weekend on a high note.
Ranger Suarez (L), rostered in 65% of ESPN leagues, Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: There are two caveats with this pick. Suarez’s rostership is over the usual 50% cutoff, but more importantly, the Phillies may be eliminated from playoff contention come Friday. I’ll make you a deal. If the Braves beat the Phillies on Thursday, I’ll add another possible streaming option in the Friday morning update. Suarez is one of the reasons Philadelphia is even still alive as he’s posted a 1.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 45 whiffs over his last 44 frames. He could be in play even if the Phillies’ division chances are over since he’s facing a Marlins lineup with, by far, the lowest wOBA versus lefthanders in the second half.
Eli Morgan (R), 6%, Cleveland at Texas Rangers: Even with a blow up against the Brewers, Morgan has posted a 4.19 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a reasonable 57 strikeouts in 62 1/3 second half innings. Admittedly, his ERA estimators are a bit higher than his actual mark but facing a weak Rangers lineup mitigates the risk.
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Nestor Cortes (L), 33%, New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: This is a good example of relying on a pitcher with something on the line. That said, Cortes has earned our trust with a 3.26 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 64 punch outs in 60 2/3 frames since entering the rotation. The catch is he’s facing the top scoring offense in the American League. Even so, look for a solid five innings from Cortes before the Yankees turn to the bullpen.
Dakota Hudson (R), 1%, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: Amazingly, the Cardinals have clinched the second wild card. However, there is a narrative pointing to Hudson pitching at least five stanzas and it’s the fact the Cardinals would like to get as many innings as possible under his belt since he’s only pitched 3 2/3 stanzas since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Keep in mind Hudson pitched five innings in each of his last two rehab starts earlier this month.
Bullpen: San Francisco Giants rookie reliever Camilo Doval has captured the last two saves for the NL West leaders. He’s yet to allow an earned run in 12 1/3 September innings, fanning 16. Doval is available in 93% of ESPN leagues, so if you need saved, he’s a great option for the final weekend.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Daulton Varsho (L), 23%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Jon Gray): While there may not be anything on the line in this matchup of NL West doormats, Varsho has been a regular most of the second half and since he got Thursday off, he’s likely to be back in the lineup on Friday. So far this month, Varsho has posted a .275/.301/.450 line with a pair of steals. For those curious, with 38 games behind the dish, Varsho has played more than enough games to qualify at catcher in 2022.
First Base — Gavin Sheets (L), 1%, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (RHP Wily Peralta): The White Sox will likely give their everyday players some time off this weekend, with Sheets seeing action at first and in the outfield. All nine of Sheets homers this season have come off a righthanders, with two coming this past week.
Second Base — Enrique Hernandez (R), 50%, Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals (LHP Josh Rogers): Despite a second half swoon, Hernandez remains atop the Red Sox lineup. His slump aside, Hernandez historically excels with a lefty on the hill, with 2021 following suit.
Third Base — Carter Kieboom (R), 3%, Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez): Kieboom fits a couple of narratives in that he’s trying to win a job next season as well as playing in a game with postseason implications for the opponent. It’s safe to start him with the platoon edge on Rodriguez, who still hasn’t been as consistently sharp as previous seasons.
Shortstop — Nicky Lopez (L), 48%, Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (Undecided): There is another reason for using a player at this point of the season. It’s more of a personal than team thing, but someone like Lopez may want to keep piling on the steals. He has only three this month, but he’s a perfect 21-for-21 on the season.
Corner Infield — Yu Chang (R), 1%, Cleveland at Texas Rangers (RHP Spencer Howard): Cleveland is giving Chang a good look down the stretch, playing him all over the infield. He’s not crushing it, but a .284/.314/.463 line for the month is playable in deep leagues. Don’t sweat lacking the platoon edge. While it’s not right to say Chang is a reverse splits batter, his number against righties are slightly better this season, so it is fair to say he’s comfortable in that scenario.
Middle Infield — Miguel Rojas (R), 17%, Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (LHP Ranger Suarez): Rojas is better suited for a fantasy lineup looking to maintain a lead as opposed to one looking to make up ground. His 14% contact rate means Rojas puts the ball in play, conducive to a player used for his floor. That said, if he can hit one more out of the yard, he’ll add a double-digit total of 10 homers to 14 stolen bases.
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Outfield — Sam Hilliard (L), 3%, Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Humberto Castellanos): Hilliard is better known for his power, but he’s a sneaky base stealer too. Hilliard is a tidy 4-for-4 with two swipes in September.
Outfield — Rafael Ortega (L), 12%, Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Dakota Hudson): Ortega hasn’t been hitting for much power lately, but he’s been an on-base machine for those looking for a boost in points leagues. Since September 17, Ortega has registered a .353/.476/.412 line with a steal.
Outfield — Corey Dickerson (L), 8%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Undecided): With a .360/.448/.440 line for the last two weeks, Dickerson has reclaimed the strong side of a left field platoon from Randall Grichuk. If Baltimore starts a lefty, slide Grichuk into this spot. Both are great conduits into a potent lineup with a postseason berth hanging in the balance.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author’s ratings.