Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Friday
Friday continues what has been an appealing fantasy pitching slate all week as once again the theme will be picking on teams with depleted lineups. Enjoying the platoon edge is the hitting mantra of the day.
Good luck this weekend. Keep in mind this is the penultimate week of the regular season in ESPN head-to-head leagues so it’s time to pull out all the stops if you’re currently out of a playoff spot. If your postseason ticket is secure, grabbing some upside players for your reserve is a great way to get ready for the tournament. Whatever your agenda, here are some ideas, all available in more than half of all ESPN leagues.
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J.A. Happ (L), rostered in 19% of ESPN leagues, St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Expected ERAs aren’t perfect. The mere fact there are multiple speaks towards their veracity. That said, they do a good job of putting small samples in focus. For example, Happ’s ERA with the Twins was 6.77 but it’s been 1.99 in his four starts with the Cardinals. However, the array of estimators put him around 5.00 before being dealt at the dealt and in the 4.50 neighborhood after the move. Sure, he’s been a bit better with St. Louis, but he also hasn’t faced a designated hitter, so he’s been close to the same guy, with a bit of variance kicking in. While it’s not like a 4.50 ERA is all that special, it’s representative of a streaming candidate. With Happ facing the National League’s least productive offense against lefties, it’s a good opportunity to deploy the veteran southpaw.
Logan Gilbert (R), 29%, Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: This is the point of the season when first-year hurlers often encounter the proverbial rookie wall. Perhaps this is why Gilbert’s last two outings rough, or maybe it is simply because he faced the talented Dodgers and Astros lineups. Gilbert surrendered a total of 14 runs in 8 1/3 combined innings to the pair, yielding two homers to each. The freshman is in a great spot to rebound with a home tilt against a much less daunting lineup.
Jake Odorizzi (R), 24%, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers: Odorizzi is another below average pitcher benefitting from a soft matchup as the Rangers are the league’s weakest offense with a righty on the hill. Since the break, his ERA is 5.85, but most of the damage was inflicted by the Dodgers when they tallied six runs in just three frames. It’s a risk, but Odorizzi is in play, especially for those needing a win.
Eric Lauer (L), 17%, Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins: Lauer has recorded a tidy 2.41 ERA and 1.16 WHIP since July 1, though four of his seven efforts coming against the Pirates with another facing the Royals and his last outing against the depleted Nationals squad. A road interleague affair means Lauer will have to face a designated hitter, but the Twins have the second lowest wOBA versus lefties in the league over the second half so Lauer’s string of facing lesser competition marches on.
Kris Bubic (L), 6%, Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners: Bubic has registered four quality starts in seven outings since the break. He was also crushed for seven runs in 1 1/3 innings by the Cardinals. On Friday, the lefty draws a Mariners lineup with the seventh poorest wOBA with a southpaw on the hill since the break.
Bullpen: As was hypothesized earlier in the week, Matt Barnes has been temporarily relieved of his closing duties and will be utilized in low leverage scenarios. Hansel Robles received the first save opportunity following the demotion and came up short. While there has been no official word from manager Alex Cora, Garrett Whitlock or Adam Ottavino will likely get the next save chance. If you want to stash a longshot, Garrett Richards has ten strikeouts and one walk in eight frames since becoming a reliever.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Jorge Alfaro (R), 5%, Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds (LHP Wade Miley): A sluggish July cost Alfaro some playing time, but a spike in average exit velocity this month has him back behind the plate on most days. With a lefty on the hill, it’s almost a sure thing he’ll be crouching. Alfaro has still fanned 35% of the time this month but hitting the ball with more authority has buoyed a .288/.309/.379 August slash.
First Base — Ryan Zimmerman (R), 1%, Washington Nationals at New York Mets (LHP Rich Hill): It’s been a quiet campaign for Zimmerman as he’s pacing towards the second worst wOBA of his career. Even so, he remains dangerous with the platoon edge as evidenced by a .300/.326/.589 line with a lefty on the bump.
Second Base — Jurickson Profar (S), 16%, San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels (LHP Jose Quintana): With the Padres on the road in an interleague tilt, Profar has an excellent chance at serving as the designated hitter. Further, with Quintana on the hill, you want as many Friars as possible as the veteran lefty has been terrible and really struggled in his return to the Angels rotation. As a switch-hitter, Profar has the best chance of staying in the game when the Angels inevitable turn to their bullpen. Teammates Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Marisnick are both likely to join Profar in the starting lineup, but they’re also candidates to be lifted early when a righthanded reliever enters the fray.
Third Base — David Bote (R), 1%, Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (LHP Dallas Keuchel): Regular readers know I’m a fan of looking at exit velocity over a small sample as it is often a better reflection of how a hitter is performing than the actual outcomes. Bote is a great example as he’s been stinging the ball lately without much to show for it. Since August 16, he’s plastered 11 balls over 100 mph, with eight topping 105 mph. This should portend to a better line than .241/.267/.345 he’s posted. I’ll take my chances of better results with the platoon edge on a hittable lefty.
Shortstop — Ramon Urias (R), 2%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Shane McClanahan): Urias posted his fifth multi-hit game in his last eight starts on Thursday, fueling a .400/.464/.800 line in that span. McClanahan has been impressive, but he’s given up more hard contact lately, leading to 35 hits allowed over his prior 29 1/3 innings.
Corner Infield — Luis Urias (R), 40%, Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins (LHP Andrew Albers): As an aside, I’m happy to report Kolten Wong’s roster ship has finally eclipsed 50%. Now it’s time to work on Urias as he’s also been productive, as shown by a .281/.373/.490 line over the second half. With the platoon edge on one of the weakest hurlers on the ledger, Urias’ rostership should be on the upswing.
Middle Infield — Christian Arroyo (R), 1%, Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians (LHP Logan Allen): It’s not guaranteed Arroyo will be in the lineup as the Red Sox haven’t faced a lefty starter since he came off the IL, but the chances are excellent he’s in there. Before hurting himself stretching while filling in at first base, Arroyo was establishing himself as one of Boston’s more reliable batters.
Outfield — Brett Phillips (L), 1%, Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Matt Harvey): A power binge earned Phillips more playing time, though to be fair his last round tripper came on August 16 and was of the inside-the-park variety. Still, he’s slugging .684 since July 29, fueled by five homers.
Outfield — Brandon Nimmo (L), 42%, New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (RHP Paolo Espino): Nimmo’s rostership is on the rise and it’s likely to keep ascending after fantasy managers access this matchup with Espino. Heading into Thursday’s action, Nimmo has hit safely nine of 10 games, including his last seven, getting on base at a 43% clip in that span.
Outfield — Oscar Mercado (R), 1%, Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez): Mercado’s .250/.333/.391 since August 3 isn’t all that special, but it includes two homers and two steals along with a decent 9.7% walk rate and low 12.5% strikeout clip. Put together, it renders Mercado a sneaky points league fill-in, especially facing a lefty who can’t seem to sustain a groove all season.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.