Fantasy baseball daily notes – Pitcher and hitter rankings for Friday
The weekend also is highlighted by an interleague encounter between the two first place teams in the Central divisions, with each affair slated to be a great pitching matchup. Lucas Giolito gets the nod for the visiting Chicago White Sox to be opposed by Freddy Peralta defending home turf for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Elsewhere, there are some viable spot starters for those needing pitching help in what is an extended week in many ESPN leagues. There are some new bats available which is common this time of the season. A great way to stay ahead of your competition is monitoring emerging players and picking them up before others are aware of their potential production.
David Price (L), rostered in 33% of ESPN leagues, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: The Dodgers are counting on Price to handle a full starter’s workload over the second half and after throwing 66 pitches over four frames in Coors Field last time out, Price should extend to at least five innings in the Chavez Ravine rematch. The Rockies road woes versus southpaws is well documented, rendering Price the top stream on the docket.
Johnny Cueto (R), 35%, San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Giants will be coming off an emotional series with the Dodgers thus will be counting on their veteran starter to keep the intensity high. Cueto went into the break in a bit of a rut but came out strong, limiting the Cardinals to one run over five stanzas with five strikeouts. Next up is the lowest scoring team in the league carrying the ninth lowest wOBA versus righthanders into Oracle Park.
Steven Matz (L), 45%, Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets: Matz will take the hill in familiar digs as he spent his first six seasons throwing for the Mets in Citi Field. He returns supported by one of the most potent lineups in the league and will face the offense with the ninth lowest wOBA against lefties.
Alex Cobb (R), 30%, Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins: After a rough June in which Cobb posted a 7.32 ERA, the veteran right is back on track with 1 .92 ERA over his last three outings, two of which were quality starts. His season-long 18% K-BB% is by far a career best and is well above the 15.1% league average for starting pitchers.
Tylor Megill (R), 16%, New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Consider Megill a bonus pick as the previously mentioned options all have relatively high rostership numbers, thus may not be available in deeper leagues. Megill’s solid numbers (28 strikeouts with nine walks and just three homers allowed in 24 frames) merit streaming consideration, but the catch is he is still unproven and draws one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. However, Toronto will be without the designated hitter and incurs a massive park downgrade.
Bullpen:
The leaders in saves over the past week have been Joakim Soria and Gregory Soto with three, just like everyone expected. Obviously, this doesn’t mean you should drop league leaders Mark Melancon or Liam Hendriks, but it does speak towards the unpredictable nature of the statistic and how filling empty pitching spots with a reliever currently atop their team’s closer pecking order can pay dividends. To that end, Soria and Soto are both available in just over 80% of ESPN leagues.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Tres Barrera (R), 1%, Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez): Barrera may not enjoy the platoon edge but he’s a fresh face at the position and faces one of the lower ranked starters on the docket. Plus, he’s playing regularly and responding with a tidy four-game hitting streak over which he’s has slashed .412/.444/.706.
First Base — Ji-Man Choi (L), 4%, Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland (RHP Zach Plesac): Choi’s power is low this season, despite underlying metrics portending more homers. That said, we’re not talking about Joey Gallo territory, but Choi’s pace should pick up. Plesac is pitching better lately, though he still has yielded at least one long ball in five straight outings, totaling eight in his previous 28 2/3 innings.
Second Base — Ramon Urias (R), 2%, Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin): Urias has quietly flourished while filling in for the injured Freddy Galvis. Since taking over at shortstop, Galvis is slashing .329/.388/.493 in 19 games, fanning at a low 16% clip. July has not been kind to Corbin as the lefty has posted a bloated 7.31 ERA and 2.00 WHIP with only eight punchouts in 16 stanzas.
Third Base — J.D. Davis (R), 36%, New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays (LHP Steven Matz): Davis was off to a solid start, posting a .390/.479/.610 line before heading to the IL with a left-hand sprain on May 2. Davis returned after the break but other than a two-homer game on July 17, he’s been quiet. That said, it’s only a matter of time before Davis gets back in the groove. Historically, he hits lefthanders well so perhaps Friday’s tilt against Matz is the springboard Davis needs.
Shortstop — Amed Rosario (R), 30%, Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Josh Fleming): Remember Andres Gimenez? You know, the guy everyone drafted for cheap speed while shunning Rosario? Well, Gimenez is slashing a respectable .258/.312/.497 with four steals for Triple-A Toledo and is still a major part of the Indians future. Meanwhile, Rosario continues his renaissance campaign by hitting safely in five of six games since the break, also swiping his ninth base without being caught.
Corner Infield — Pavin Smith (L), 30%, Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (RHP Zach Davies): Earlier in the week, it was noted Smith has been hitting the ball hard lately, but mostly on the ground. The note suggested it shouldn’t be long before he starts lofting the ball again, with the resulting power. That proved prescient as Smith has gone deep in two consecutive games.
Middle Infield — Wilmer Difo (S), 5%, Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (RHP Johnny Cueto): Difo’s run as the everyday right fielder ended when Gregory Polanco was activated off the IL. However, a .359/.432/.590 July should keep the versatile Difo in the lineup as he can spell teammates all over the diamond.
Outfield — Taylor Ward (R), 14%, Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins (LHP J.A. Happ): Mike Trout and Justin Upton a nearing their returns, but in the meantime, Ward will continue to be the righthanded share of a platoon with Adam Eaton. Ward will enjoy the platoon edge over a lefty who has surrendered 19 homers, tied for the fifth most in the majors.
Outfield — Derek Hill (R), under 1%, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (LHP Kris Bubic): Hill was on the bench Thursday but should be back patrolling center field on Friday. He’s likely to see a bump in playing time with Eric Haase catching more frequently while Jake Rogers nurses a sore arm. Hill’s allure is speed as he’s swiped three bags in the past week, bringing him to a tidy 6-for-6 on the season.
Outfield — Aristides Aquino (R), 1%, Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Wade LeBlanc): Aquino has gone yard twice since the break as he’s playing primarily against southpaw pitching. LeBlanc has thrown just 31 1/3 innings this season, but he’s yielded five homers in that span.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.