Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Friday
The start of the second half also brings with it some new blood. The Red Sox are calling up Jarren Duran for their upcoming series against the Yankees, and the Mariners are giving Jarred Kelenic his second taste of big-league action after a brief stint back at Triple-A. We’ll discuss in more detail below, but both outfield prospects are worth your attention.
Here’s a look at Friday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Andrew Heaney (L), rostered in 49% of ESPN leagues, Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: While the indicators suggest he’s pitched better than his 5.38 ERA, Heaney hasn’t delivered much start-to-start consistency this season. He has, however, missed plenty of bats, registering a 11.0 K/9 to go along with three double-digit K performances. Despite carrying some blow-up risk, Heaney gets an ideal matchup against the Mariners, a team that is one of the worst in baseball against lefties, putting up an MLB-worst .292 wOBA and 26.9% K rate.
Danny Duffy (L), 45%, Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: Duffy has made five starts since returning from the injured list, and he’s been slowly ramping up his pitch count, getting up to 77 his last time out against Cleveland, a start in which he threw five innings of one-run ball. Duffy averaged just 93 mph on his fastball in that start, which is something to keep an eye on after he sat 94.4 mph in his previous outing. Either way, Duffy has been highly effective this season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 9.8 K/9 over 12 appearances. While the Orioles have been sneaky good against lefty pitching this season (111 wRC+), they’ll get a significant park downgrade by swapping Camden Yards for Kauffman Stadium.
Merrill Kelly (R), 20%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: Kelly finished out the first half on a strong note, securing a 2.05 ERA and 0.98 WHP over his last five starts. That stretch included starts against the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. The right-hander hasn’t been getting many strikeouts, which gives him less room for error, but he’s been making it work. There’s a good chance Kelly will continue to make it work on Friday against the Cubs, who have had the worst offense in baseball over the last month, stumbling to a 77 wRC+ and 28.6% strikeout rate.
JT Brubaker (R), 20%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: Brubaker’s rostered percentage is on the decline after a pair of rough outings to close out the first half, but the overall skills are still relatively strong. The right-hander is fanning nearly a batter per inning thanks to a filthy slider, and he’s been adept at limiting free passes, posting a 1.9 BB/9. Longballs have been an issue, but he’s typically done a great job keeping the ball in the park in his professional career, so the hope is that he’ll improve in the second half. Although the Mets roughed up Brubaker in his last start before the break, their offense has struggled of late, putting up an 87 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Bullpen
The back of the Phillies’ bullpen has struggled all season, but perhaps they’ve finally sound someone to hold down the ninth inning? Ranger Suarez, available in 95% of ESPN leagues, has nailed down each of the Phillies’ last two save opportunities, including a seven-out save against Boston on the day before the break. Suarez sports a 0.77 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 across 35 innings this season, and while he may not have the stuff of a prototypical closer, the Phillies are likely to stick with him as long as he gets the job done. The Phillies play a double-header on Friday, so Suarez has increased odds of getting a save opportunity.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
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Catcher — Elias Diaz (R), 11%, Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (LHP Julio Urias): Getting consistent catcher production can be a frustrating exercise, so sometimes it can be beneficial to just ride the guy who’s swinging a hot bat. Right now, that guy is Diaz, who is hitting .400/.467/.825 with five homers in his last 12 games. A matchup against Urias won’t be easy, but getting the platoon edge at Coors Field certainly helps.
First Base — Alex Kirilloff (L), 29%, Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (RHP Jose Urena): As one of baseball’s better hitting prospects, Kirilloff hasn’t exactly set the baseball world on fire this season, but he’s been making strides. Over his last 21 games, he’s batting .280/.344/.480, and his 13.1% barrel rate on the season ranks in the 85th percentile. The rookie matches up well with Urena, who is surrendering a .406 wOBA to left-handed batters.
Second Base — Ty France (R), 42%, Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (LHP Andrew Heaney): We like Heaney as a potential streamer on Friday, but France deserves to be in the discussion, too. In addition to getting the platoon edge, France is batting .299/.349/.515 over his last 26 games while batting in the heart of Seattle’s lineup.
Third Base — Luis Urias (R), 41%, Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (Undecided): With Kolten Wong sidelined, Urias has stepped in as Milwaukee’s leadoff hitter. While the .237/.328/.418 slash line isn’t impressive, Urias is still doing things that help fantasy managers, clubbing 12 homers, swiping five bags, and putting up a 10.3% walk rate. While American Family Field is great for right-handed power, Great American Ballpark is even better.
Shortstop — Orlando Arcia (R), 3%, Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Undecided): Arcia has never done much at the big-league level, but after getting dealt to Atlanta in April and working on his hitting mechanics, he went on to hit .303/.380/.552 with 13 homers and five steals in 51 games at Triple-A. Since his promotion, he’s hitting .333/.360/.500 in seven games with the Braves. The sample is obviously small, but Arcia, once a highly touted prospect, is only 26, so there’s still hope for him as a big-league hitter. Given the Braves’ injuries, Arcia should continue to play consistently.
Corner Infield — Joey Votto (L), 40%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Undecided): At 37 years old, maybe Votto falls into the “old and boring” category now, but there’s nothing boring about what he’s been doing at the plate. In addition to posting top-tier hard-hit and barrel rates, he’s batting .299/.385/.523 with six homers over the last month. Don’t give up on the veteran just yet.
Middle Infield — Jed Lowrie (S), 32%, Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians (RHP Eli Morgan): Lowrie has been a rather pedestrian fantasy option for much of this season, but he’s turned things on of late, batting .375/.407/.696 with five dingers in his last 15 games. He should stay hot against Morgan, the owner of an 8.44 ERA across five starts in 2021.
Outfield — Jarred Kelenic (L), 39%, Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (LHP Andrew Heaney): Kelenic’s first big-league stint didn’t go as planned (.096/.185/.193), but after another quick stop at Triple-A, where he hit .320 with nine homers and six steals in 30 games, he’s set to be recalled again on Friday. A lefty-lefty matchup against Heaney isn’t ideal, but Kelenic remains an uber-elite prospect with the ability to be a five-category contributor. He shouldn’t be left out on the waiver wire.
Outfield — Jarren Duran (L), 11%, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (Undecided): Once known mostly for his speed, Duran, who is joining the Red Sox on Thursday, retooled his swing and has now established himself as a legit power/speed threat. The 24-year-old put up a .270/.365/.561 slash line in 46 games at Triple-A with 15 homers and 12 steals. He also made a very strong impression on the Team USA Qualifying Team. It should be only a matter of time before the Red Sox insert him as their leadoff hitter.
Outfield — Akil Baddoo (L), 29%, Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins (Undecided): Most of the early-season excitement around Baddoo fizzled as he encountered some struggles, but he’s now starting to pick things back up. The 22-year-old is batting .319 with nine extra-base hits and seven steals over his last 24 games. Stolen bases are awfully hard to come by in most leagues, and Baddoo, who has elite speed, is widely available.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.