Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Friday
Today’s slate of pitchers comes with a pair of bonus selections, as two of the hurlers who Mike Sheets had originally featured in Thursday’s notes had their outings pushed to Friday. As such, I’ll include them here, alongside the standard array of batters. As usual, we will be focusing on players rostered in roughly 50% or fewer ESPN leagues.
Logan Gilbert (R), rostered in 30% of ESPN leagues, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: While it’s true you only get one chance to make a first impression, Gilbert has taken advantage of many subsequent chances to change minds. After a rough couple of outings to open his career, Gilbert has pitched to a 2.84 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP (with 28 strikeouts and only three walks) over his last 25 1/3 innings. He should be well rested, considering his last effort was limited to two frames by rain. On Friday, he earns the top streaming spot with a home matchup against the middling Texas offense.
Alek Manoah (R), 41%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Manoah is another well-rested rookie as he’s coming off a five-game suspension for throwing at Maikel Franco. Manoah has started six games and allowed 11 earned runs, nine of which have come in just two outings. In the other four, he’s posted a 0.78 ERA and an 0.91 WHIP. This doesn’t mean much more, other than to note that even talented rookies experience a learning curve. That said, 33 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings is worth inserting into your Friday lineup.
JT Brubaker (R), 29%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Brubaker has his work cut out for him, facing one of the hottest teams in the league. However, the Brewers will be incurring a huge park downgrade and Brubaker has quietly made a case to be the Pirates’ lone All-Star representative — or at least potentially joining Adam Frazier in Denver. The 27-year-old right-hander has six quality starts and a 3.82 ERA but has collected only four wins, due to low run support. He’s whiffed a respectable 75 batters in 77 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Brewers have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the league.
Griffin Canning (R), 10%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are a “tale of two lineups” as their top half is productive, but their bottom portion is mostly punchless. Working at home in pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium should help Canning navigate through both halves of Baltimore’s batters.
Drew Smyly (L), 18%, Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: Here’s the first of the two streamers previously tabbed in Thursday’s notes. In his blurb, Mike Sheets pointed out, “Since getting roughed up by the Red Sox in late June, Smyly holds a 2.84 ERA over his last five starts. He’s mostly been taking advantage of bad offenses.” The Marlins lineup is averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game in the majors while fanning at an above average clip.
Adrian Houser (R), 12%, Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: As Sheets wrote, “From a skills standpoint, Houser isn’t overly exciting. He doesn’t miss enough bats, and he’s not great at limiting free passes. Of course, Houser isn’t listed here because of his stuff. No, he’s here because of his tasty matchup against Pittsburgh. Not only does the right-hander get a much more favorable pitching environment in PNC Park, but the Pirates have put up an MLB-worst .290 wOBA this season. If you’re going to rely on a below-average hurler for your streaming needs, this is the type of favorable spot you seek.”
Bullpen: At least for now, Cole Sulser seems to be emerging with the closer gig in Baltimore. He’s collected a pair of saves this week and, for the season, Sulser has recorded a tidy 2.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He’s also impressed with 43 strikeouts and only 12 walks in 30 2/3 frames.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
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Catcher — James McCann (R), 37%, New York Mets at New York Yankees (LHP Jordan Montgomery): McCann has pulled 60% of his home runs, so he may not be able to take advantage of the short porch going the other way in Yankee Stadium. However, his career-long success against left-handed pitching still warrants a lineup spot.
First Base — Joey Votto (L), 33%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Alec Mills): It’s still odd seeing Votto so readily available. The veteran is apparently firm in his more aggressive mindset, failing to draw any walks over the last week in June en route to a productive .333/.333/.630 line.
Second Base — Josh Harrison (R), 23%, Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (LHP Julio Urias): As they have done all season, Starlin Castro and Harrison have been consistently productive, especially with the platoon edge. Harrison gets the nod this time, though both are in play.
Third Base — Joshua Fuentes (R), 5%, Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Johan Oviedo): It’s Coors Field, and platoons are secondary to matchups. All available Cardinals and Rockies are in play for Friday’s tilt. Fuentes doesn’t have the power to take full advantage of the thin air, but he makes good contact and benefits from the big outfield, which serves to boost hits even more than homers.
Shortstop — J.P. Crawford (L), 32%, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson): If you’re still waiting for Crawford’s ship to sail, he’s not quite ready to go to sea. The Mariners’ leadoff hitter continues to produce, batting .341/.390/.528 since May 29, with no letup in site.
Corner Infield — Christian Walker (R), 33%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (LHP Alex Wood): Walker ended June on a tear, hitting a strong .361/.395/.583 over the final 10 games. He’s in a good spot to start July off well, enjoying the platoon edge against Wood. That said, Wood could be emerging from his June doldrums as he pitched well in his last outing, striking out eight Athletics batters in 5 1/3 innings. In his prior five efforts, the left-hander had posted a brutal 7.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Middle Infield — Miguel Rojas (R), 21%, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (LHP Drew Smyly): Rojas, who could be on the trading block, is having another solid season, though his numbers are a bit down from last season’s stellar campaign. As has been the case throughout his career, Rojas’s platoon splits are more exaggerated than the average player. He’s posted a .355/.452/.532 line facing left-handers. Adam Duvall and Jorge Alfaro join Rojas as right-handed swingers in a good spot against a southpaw starter.
Outfield — Anthony Santander (S), 46%, Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (RHP Griffin Canning): As discussed earlier, Baltimore has some potent bats at the top of the lineup, with Santander enjoying the platoon edge as a switch-hitter. Austin Hays is also readily available and, even though it’s a same-side matchup, he’s swinging the bat well.
Outfield — Luis Arraez (L), 28%, Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brady Singer): The Twins haven’t been as productive in 2021 as last season, but they’re still capable of doing damage. Arraez has seen most of the leadoff duty against right-handers. Much like his own home park (Target Field), Kauffman Stadium is a sneaky hitter’s park — especially since Arraez doesn’t rely on power to shine.
Outfield — Jorge Soler (R), 44%, Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (LHP J.A. Happ): Soler, however, does rely on power and it’s been down for him this season. Perhaps he’s been a victim of the higher-seamed ball? Soler tends to hit more majestic fly balls than line drives, giving the baseball more time to be negatively affected by increased air resistance. That said, Soler is in a favorable position to take advantage of Happ’s proclivity for surrendering the longball.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.