Facts vs. Feelings: Will Levis, Javonte Williams are rolling, and other Week 10 trends to consider
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion causes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2023 NFL season Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
I’ve been sitting at my desk, staring blankly at my computer screen for nearly an hour, trying to come up with an intro idea. Nothing “big” happened last week. Not that I’d like to share publicly — or could vaguely link to fantasy football — at least.
And then, out of nowhere, a giant, bright green praying mantis crawled across my window screen. She — I know it was a she because the internet told me that female mantises have six abdominal segments — stopped at the corner and, no lie, cocked her head at me. It was like a “what’s up” from the insect world. What a lovely surprise!
That admittedly small but totally unexpected moment filled me with delight. It also reminded me of countless other unforeseen happenings that unfolded over the past seven days. Not all of them made me smile, of course. Hadn’t, for example, anticipated an ant infestation … on the opposite side of the house from where the Halloween candy was being stored.
Yet, each instance — like when my bestie’s dinner date canceled and we threw together an impromptu night out and I didn’t even wake up with a headache the next morning because my water plus ibuprofen game was so strong — inspired a big reaction. It’s always a mixed bag, right? They say that’s what keeps us from getting bored. That the curve balls — both good and bad — are the actual “life” in between all of the living.
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Is it so different in sports? The (likely freshly onboarded due to “Drive to Survive”) F1 fans can attest to this weekend’s race in Brazil being a cacophony of OMG moments, despite Max Verstappen cruising to his seventeenth victory. And those who watched the NYC Marathon were treated to a plethora of witty signage that had little to do with Tamirat Tola’s record-setting pace. And I sincerely doubt anyone predicted that C.J. Stroud would score 21 fantasy points more than Patrick Mahomes (facing the Dolphins in Germany) last weekend.
We’re all eyeing hits and taking misses. It’s striking the balance that’s key. Thank goodness Tank Dell carried my squad in the Fantasy Focus league, because Brandin Cooks certainly did not. Conversely, starting Dallas Goedert ahead of Jake Ferguson in a different pro league cost me the W and dropped my team to fourth place. I anticipated the possibility of all of it, but didn’t expect any of it. The preparation is full of fact, and the outcome is rife with feelings. So let’s stay flexible with both in order to maximize the fun.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans: Welcome to the NFL, Will Levis! Officially named the Titans starter, the rookie has impressed in back-to-back outings. While he failed to record a single passing score last Thursday night (after four of them four days prior) he demonstrated polish and anticipation well beyond his years. Averaging a league-high 10.1 air yards per attempt (it’s a small sample size, I know, but stay with me), Levis has fired off 10 total passes over 20 yards since Week 8. His 20% off-target rate screams greenhorn, but with DeAndre Hopkins in tow (and just 1 INT over two weeks) the aggressiveness is more than welcome.
Tennessee figures to chuck it at Tampa Bay this Sunday. The Bucs have struggled to contain opposing passers, allowing the most fantasy points and an average of nearly 350 passing yards per game to opposing QBs over the last four weeks. If C.J. Stroud‘s historic 470-yard and 5-TD showing last Sunday is any indication, Levis figures to deal at the Pirate Ship. Even Desmond Ridder managed 250 passing yards when facing TB two weeks ago. With Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts on bye, Levis is a dream stream in Week 10.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos: Speaking of byes, Javonte Williams got to rest up over Week 9. The last time we saw the former second-round pick, he was cruising to a second straight game of over 95 scrimmage yards. Williams’ volume has ramped up since sitting out Week 5 with a strained quad; 10 touches in Week 6, 18 touches in Week 7, and 30 touches in Week 8. Not for nothing, the 23-year-old is only the eighth player to reach 30 touches in a game this season.
In addition to a boost in opportunities, Williams’ trademark tackle-breaking ability appears to be back on track. The North Carolina product managed 2.51 yards after contact while clearing 10 yards on 13% of his rushes over his first two years in the league. Coming off of an ACL injury his big-play numbers understandably dipped, as he averaged 1.24 yards after contact with 8% of his rushes going over 10 yards. Recently, though, those stats have been on the rise, with Williams logging 2.2 yards after contact and crushing 14% of his rushes for 10+ yards.
The data suggests that Williams is returning to form, which could provide massive gains for fantasy managers down the stretch. His matchup at Orchard Park doesn’t appear favorable at first glance, but the Bills are allowing a YPC of 4.9 to opposing rushers. More interestingly, Buffalo has given up the fourth-most catches to RBs over the last four weeks. Williams is managing a healthy 12% target share (RB18), converting six of seven looks over his past two contests. Consider the Broncos RB1 a top-20 fantasy play at the position on Monday night.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks: I whiffed on Kenneth Walker III last week, touting the over on his 53.5 rushing yards player prop. Between a negative game script, a brutal matchup, and perhaps even lingering soreness in his calf, Walker underwhelmed to the tune of 9 carries for 16 rushing yards. It was his second single-digit tote total in two weeks. That last part seems particularly concerning because (in addition to all of the obstacles already listed) as Walker’s involvement sunk, Zach Charbonnet‘s lifted.
Charbonnet has led the Seahawks backfield in snaps since sitting out Week 7 with a hamstring strain. The UCLA product recorded a snap share of 57% (to Walker’s 47%) in Week 9. Interestingly, Charbonnet managed a 69% snap share in the first half, indicating that the upswing was part of the team’s plan and not due to an in-game injury or setback.
Walker still appears to have a strong hold on the lead back duties, as Charbonnet has caught no more than two balls in any game yet this year. The second-year player has also registered 12 carries inside the five-yard line, as opposed to one such tote for the rookie. Ultimately, this is less about Charbonnet overtaking Walker and more about Seattle approaching the backfield in an equitable manner.
The matchup versus Washington (4.3 YPC allowed) is favorable enough to keep Walker ranked inside the top-15 fantasy players at the position. If Charbonnet gets more run, though, managers might want to consider scooping the youngster (30% rostered in ESPN fantasy leagues) and maybe even selling high on the vet.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets: Fantasy managers marched into 2023 fully sold on Garret Wilson. The fates, as everyone is well aware of by now, did not align with the community’s bullish wishes, though. While Wilson went from being a potential top-10 FF WR to fantasy’s WR22 overall, he has put together a string of plus performances.
Recording at least 7 grabs and 80 yards since Week 6, Wilson has cleared 13 fantasy points for three consecutive outings. He’s also averaging 9.7 looks per contest (WR15), having drawn 12+ targets in four of his last five games. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in 17 career games with Zach Wilson, the first-round talent has never registered more than 17.6 fantasy points in a single effort. Moreover, 57 different players have gone above that total in 2023 alone.
Wilson’s catchable target rate is a cringey 68% (WR79), but the volume (on top of elite body control and instincts) makes him a regular starter. He’ll remain a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 at Vegas on Sunday night. The Raiders have been more generous via the ground (fourth-most fantasy points to RBs) than the air (sixth-fewest fantasy points to WRs), but that’s partially been due to game flow. This clash of titans figures to be messy with plenty of lead changes, suggesting another force-feeding of the Jets best aerial weapon.
Zay Flowers, WR, New York Jets: Flowers opened his rookie campaign hot, drawing 25 looks over his first three games (with Mark Andrews sidelined in Week 1). Over the past three weeks, however, his opportunities have dwindled, amounting to a total of 14 targets drawn. Part of the reason for Flowers’ dip in volume is due to the improved health and acclimation of Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman. More than that, though, has been Baltimore’s dominance.
The Ravens have engineered four blowout wins thus far into 2023. Flowers has recorded a total of 21 looks (5.3 per game) over those outings. Conversely, the Boston College product has registered 41 targets (8.2 per game) over the team’s five close(r) games. Those numbers are notable considering the Ravens are 6 point favorites over this week’s opponent, the Browns. Lamar Jackson has traditionally owned Cleveland, recording five wins over the division rival since 2020 (Jackson was sidelined due to injury in two of the team’s last seven meetings).
Additionally, while Flowers has been regularly utilized in the red area of the field (10 red zone targets), he’s recorded just one of the team’s 16 end zone looks. Flowers’ lack of high value opportunities, therefore, caps his ceiling and requires steady volume in order for his post plus production. That doesn’t seem likely heading into Week 10, which is why I’ve (regretfully) ranked the savvy slotman outside of my top 30 fantasy WRs heading into Sunday’s slate.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints: I’m going to need to have a shirt made that reads “Tilted by Taysom” before this year ends. My deepest apologies for dissuading fantasy managers from starting the multidimensional scoring weapon (don’t you dare call him a gadget player) in back-to-back weeks. I didn’t buy it, but I guess I am now.
Hill has recorded three rushing scores, one receiving TD, and one passing spike over his past three outings. All of those (better not call them “flukey”) touchdowns have resulted in a banquet of fantasy points, vaulting Hill inside the top-10 fantasy producers at the position. Per Mike Clay, Hill has finished second, first and first in the NFL in expected scrimmage TDs over the last three weeks, now trailing only Jalen Hurts in the statistical category. (Yeah, I hate it here, too.)
Here’s the thing. It’s working. Hill has managed 8+ touches and 50+ scrimmage yards in four straight efforts. The Saints have also won in back-to-back weeks (and lost by no more than a score in their two prior contests). Hill’s versatile deployment appears tactical and intentional. He deserves top-12 positional consideration facing a Vikings defense that has given up 19 scores on the season.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans: If Tank Dell was the story last Sunday, Dalton Schultz penned the prologue. Tied with the rookie speedster for a team-high 11 looks, Schultz managed a career-best 10-130-1 stat line in Week 9. But if you’ve been paying attention then you know that Schultz has been rolling for a minute. The 27-year-old has found the end zone in four of his last five games, resulting in an average of 15.6 fantasy points per game since Week 4.
Schultz additionally ranks inside the top-12 fantasy producers at the position in target rate (21.8%), red zone looks (7), catches (33), and receiving yards (350). His easy chemistry with C.J. Stroud is fantastically evident. The team’s young signal caller undeniably trusts the former Cowboy, particularly in scoring situations. Schultz has recorded eight end-zone opportunities, which ranks first among tight ends and is tied for fourth among all players.
He’s likely to crush again at Cincinnati on Sunday. The Bengals have allowed the second-highest catch rate (82%) and, thus not surprisingly, the most fantasy points per game (15.8) to tight ends. With Cincy’s secondary clamping down on the Texans receivers, Stroud figures to lock in on Schultz once again. Consider the plucky safety valve a top-five fantasy TE play in Week 10.
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