Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread and Week 9 early lines
Focus on totals. Yeah, you heard me. The numbers suggest that if you can have a good feel for point totals, you stand a chance at picking your spot to back a favorite. In Weeks 1-4 this season, favorites were an ugly 8-16-1 ATS (33.3%) in games that went over the projected total. But … over the past four weeks, when the game goes over, favorites are 14-10 (58.3%).
And guess what? The “favorites are better ATS in high scoring games as the season progresses” trend that we have in the tiny sample size of 2022 is actually supported over the past few seasons. From 2019 to ’21, favorites covered just 40.1% of the time in their first eight games of the season in games that went over the total. Ugly. But in the second half of the season … 49.2%. Now, that’s still not obviously great, but it’s a start.
How do you find good over spots? Up to this point, overs are 18-14 (56.3%) when the home team is favored and the over/under is less than 44 points. That’s obviously an ultra specific runout, but there are a few games that fit the bill this week (and most weeks) …
Eagles ATS: 5-2
O/U: 4-3
What we know about the Eagles: They have won five straight road games and that’s great, but they’ve covered just two of those contests.
Texans ATS: 3-3-1
O/U: 3-4
What we know about the Texans: The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games as a double-digit underdog (3-6-1 over that stretch in all other games).
Bills ATS: 4-2-1
O/U: 1-6
What we know about the Bills: The high-flying Bills are fun … but less so on the road. They’ve played away from Buffalo four times this season, and the next time such a game sees 45 total points scored will be the first.
Jets ATS: 5-3
O/U: 3-5
What we know about the Jets: The Jets are 4-1 ATS when the spread is six or fewer points (1-2 ATS otherwise).
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Panthers ATS: 3-5
O/U: 3-5
What we know about the Panthers: The Panthers lost last week at Atlanta, but they did manage to cover. For the fourth time this season, Carolina’s result has been within four points of the closing projection.
Bengals ATS: 5-3
O/U: 2-5-1
What we know about the Bengals: The Bengals are 3-1 ATS (and outright) in their past four games played on short rest, which will be the case this weekend after playing on Monday night to wrap Week 8.
Colts ATS: 3-5
O/U: 1-7
What we know about the Colts: Seven straight games have gone under when the Colts are playing on the road.
Patriots ATS: 4-3-1
O/U: 4-4
What we know about the Patriots: Nobody is confusing this Patriots offense for the dynastic ones, but eight of their past nine home games have gone over the total … so maybe we are discounting them too much.
Packers ATS: 3-5
O/U: 3-5
What we know about the Packers: The Packers have covered just 37.5% of games this season, a rate that is on pace to match their worst of the 2000s.
Lions ATS: 3-4
O/U: 5-2
What we know about the Lions: It was only by a half-point last week, but all failures to cover are the same, and that’s now four straight ATS losses for the Lions after their 3-0 start to the season.
Dolphins ATS: 4-4
O/U: 3-5
What we know about the Dolphins: The fireworks last week with Detroit was fun, but they rarely occur in consecutive Miami games. In fact, the last time consecutive Dolphin games went over the total was over a year ago (Weeks 4-5, 2021).
Bears ATS: 3-4-1
O/U: 4-4
What we know about the Bears: The Bears have failed to cover six of their past seven games as a home underdog.
Vikings ATS: 3-4
O/U: 4-3
What we know about the Vikings: Since the beginning of last season, the Vikings are 3-1 ATS on the road when the game goes under the total and 3-5 ATS when the game goes over.
Commanders ATS: 4-4
O/U: 3-5
What we know about the Commanders: Unders are 7-2 in Washington’s past nine home games.
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Raiders ATS: 3-4
O/U: 4-2-1
What we know about the Raiders: Week 8 was the exception, not the rule. The Raiders, as a 1.5-point favorite, were shut out by the Saints (24-0). In their first six games this season, their average cover margin was -1.1 points (in other words, sportsbooks have been very accurate in handicapping Raiders games).
Jaguars ATS: 2-6
O/U: 4-4
What we know about the Jaguars: Pick the outright winner of Jaguars games and then bet the team total under for the other team. In six of their past seven games, the losing team has failed to eclipse 21 points.
Chargers ATS: 4-3
O/U: 4-3
What we know about the Chargers: They have failed to cover four straight games on extended rest (over tickets have come through in three of those games).
Falcons ATS: 6-2
O/U: 5-3
What we know about the Falcons: Three straight Atlanta covers have gone under the total while over tickets cashed in both of their ATS losses this season.
Seahawks ATS: 5-3
O/U: 4-4
What we know about the Seahawks: Three consecutive Seattle road games have gone over the total, and it hasn’t been close. In those contests, there have been a total of 79.5 more points scored than sportsbooks projected.
Cardinals ATS: 4-4
O/U: 3-4-1
What we know about the Cardinals: The Cards have covered each of their past two home games (Week 5 vs PHI, Week 7 vs NO). A modest run to say the least, but a welcomed one after failing to cover their previous seven home games.
Rams ATS: 2-5
O/U: 2-5
What we know about the Rams: Each of the Rams’ past three road games have gone under the total. No team in any of those games has reached 25 points (LAR is 1-2 ATS).
Buccaneers ATS: 2-6
O/U: 2-6
What we know about the Buccaneers: The Bucs are 6-3 ATS during the Tom Brady era on extended rest (under tickets have cashed in the past three).
Titans ATS: 5-2
O/U: 2-5
What we know about the Titans: The Titans are riding high with a five game cover streak (each of the past four have gone under the total).
Chiefs ATS: 3-4
O/U: 4-3
What we know about the Chiefs: The Chiefs have covered just seven of their 20 home games since the beginning of 2020 (three straight ATS losses).
Ravens ATS: 3-4-1
O/U: 3-5
What we know about the Ravens: They have failed to cover four of their past five games on extended rest when favored (for the record, they are 2-0 ATS on long rest as an underdog during the Lamar Jackson era).
Saints ATS: 3-5
O/U: 5-3
What we know about the Saints: The Saints are 0-3 ATS on the road this season, but they have managed to cover the number in three of their past four home games.