ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 11: Strategy, advice and picks
More Teams. More Games.
Field Yates breaks down how much fantasy value Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson have moving forward. (1:12)
After a few weeks of relatively smooth sailing, last week shook up the Eliminator Challenge landscape with a number of major upsets. Over half of the remaining entrants were eliminated with the Bengals (26%), Patriots (11%), Bills (5%) and Jets (5%) all falling. They were four of the top six-most selected teams, with only the Cowboys (28%) and Bears (7%) earning wins.
This week, seven teams have at least a 70% chance of winning according to Mike Clay. Out of the 14 games, 10 have betting lines of at least 3.5, providing many options this week.
Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
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The Giants grade out as by far the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, so each time they are on the road, their opponent is a strong choice. The Commanders are not projected to be favored in a single game the rest of the season by ESPN Analytics, while Mike Clay only favors them once more, a road game against the Jets. This is realistically the last chance to use the Commanders, so if you have them available, it’s basically now or never.
ESPN BET line: Commanders -9.5
Mike Clay chance to win: 74%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 71%
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
ESPN Analytics views this game as the most lopsided matchup in any remaining game this season. The Dolphins have won and covered every game against teams below .500, while they’ve lost every game against winning teams. The Raiders sit at an even .500, but ESPN Analytics rates them out as one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Dolphins’ next four games are against the Jets, Commanders, Titans and Jets again, so they have future value, but this week is as good as any.
ESPN BET line: Dolphins -12
Mike Clay chance to win: 81%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 91%
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Despite a disappointing start to the season, the Buffalo Bills still rate out as one of the best teams based on most predictive models, including those by ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay. While both models give the Cowboys a better chance to win than the Bills, the Cowboys upcoming schedule provides more opportunities to use them than the Bills, who have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics. The Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but their offense has scored just one offensive touchdown in their past three games. If new offensive coordinator Joe Brady can reign in some of Josh Allen’s mistakes, the Jets’ offense will likely lack the punch to get an outright win.
ESPN BET line: Bills -7
Mike Clay chance to win: 83%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 80%
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
If you are following along tailing the top picks in this article, most of the biggest favorites have already been used. Excluding teams previously selected first, the top pick among teams still available is Houston. While the Cardinals looked a lot better offensively with Kyler Murray under center, ESPN Analytics still grades the Cardinals as having the worst defense in the NFL. The Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning five of their last seven games, and this is their easiest remaining game of the season according to ESPN Analytics. Mike Clay’s model is much higher on the Texans (75% chance to win) over the Jaguars (54%) despite the Texans being larger betting favorites.
ESPN BET line: Texans -4
Mike Clay chance to win: 75%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 68%
Top picks so far: Commanders-Bills-Chiefs-49ers-Lions-Dolphins-Seahawks-Ravens-Saints-Cowboys
Projected remaining path: Texans-Titans-Buccaneers-Bengals-Chargers-Broncos-Jaguars-Eagles
Top options this week: Washington Commanders, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars-