ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 1 – Strategy, advice, and picks
With the 2023 NFL Season starting this week, we kick off a new season of ESPN Eliminator Challenge. Everyone gets to start their survivor pools with the same optimism that you did last season, and the season before that, and.. well, you get the idea.
Don’t let your survivor pool end early due, with some good strategy, predictions, and advice, you can keep your chances around late into the season.
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Week 1 of Eliminator Challenge is arguably the most difficult week of the season. Last year, 45% of entrants lost in Week 1, as teams favored by at least six points went 3-3-1 outright. Two years ago, betting favorites ended Week 1 with a losing record (7-9), and 25% of entrants were eliminated.
This season, four teams have at least a 70% chance to win this week according to Mike Clay, led by the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs (both 79%), along with the Seattle Seahawks (74%) and Washington Commanders (70%). Two teams have their highest chance to win in any game this season (Commanders: 70%, Vikings: 68%).
Factoring in Mike Clay’s season-long projections, ESPN Analytics, Caesars Sportsbook odds, and future schedules, here are three Week 1 Eliminator Challenge picks that will hopefully help you reach Week 2 and beyond.
Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders
FedEx Field, Landover, MD
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Commanders haven’t been favored by this many points since 2017, and they have tied for the fourth-lowest win total in the NFL. However, they are the second-biggest moneyline favorites this week, and Mike Clay projects this as the only game all season that the Commanders are favored in at all. The Cardinals rate out as the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, and history is against them pulling off the upset. No first-time coach has won a Week 1 game as a seven-point underdog since 1995.
Mike Clay chance to win: 70%
Caesars Sportsbook odds: 7-point favorites, -320 moneyline
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Ravens are the biggest favorites this week based on the betting odds, and no team has been more consistent winning as a big favorite than the Ravens. They have never lost a regular-season game in their history as double-digit favorites, going 43-0 all-time. Meanwhile, the Texans combination of DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud look to become the first rookie coach-quarterback duo to win their first game as at least a six-point underdog in the Super Bowl era. While Mike Clay projects three more games where the Ravens have a better chance to win than this week, this is currently the largest favorite role the Ravens have all season based on the betting odds.
Mike Clay chance to win: 79%
Caesars Sportsbook odds: 10-point favorites, -480 moneyline
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Vikings are in their largest favored role this season based on both Mike Clay’s projections and the betting odds. They are the third-biggest moneyline favorites of the week behind the Ravens and Commanders. While the Vikings were a perfect 12-0 as favorites last season, neither Todd Bowles nor Baker Mayfield has shown an ability to pull off big upsets. Baker Mayfield is 1-12 outright in his career as at least a six-point underdog, while Todd Bowles is 2-21 in that role.
Mike Clay chance to win: 68%
Caesars Sportsbook: 6-point favorites, -260 moneyline
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