Divisional round betting odds, picks, tips: Should you believe in the Ravens?
More Teams. More Games.
Tyler Fulghum expects the Lions to be too much for the Buccaneers to handle and predicts them to cover. (0:34)
What is worth betting in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Marks: The Ravens are the best team in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is having a career year, and his team is healthy and rested. The Texans have not played outdoors since Dec. 17 and will have their hands full on both sides of the ball.
Fulghum: I’m most likely to bet the Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers game because I really like this spot for the Lions. The Lions have an extra day of rest and get to once again play in front of a home crowd that will be loud and difficult to deal with for the visitor. Although the Buccaneers easily beat the Philadelphia Eagles, I believe the Los Angeles Rams, whom Detroit beat, are better. This should be a better matchup for the Lions’ offense and defense. Detroit already beat this Bucs team in Tampa earlier this season 20-6 as a 3.5-point road favorite. In this favorable home spot, I have no problem laying the points. Lions -6.5 (-110).
Schatz: I’ve been driving the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon for weeks now, and I’m not going to stop here. Yes, C.J. Stroud had an outstanding game against the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans have a strong run defense, but Baltimore is good at everything and — just in case I haven’t made that clear — ranked as the fifth-best team in 43 years, according to DVOA. The Ravens’ defensive strengths match perfectly with Stroud’s strengths. Stroud is best throwing deep? The Ravens are the best defense against deep passes. First downs? Stroud ranks second, and the Ravens’ defense is first. Stroud is better against nickel defenses? That’s OK, the Ravens play best in nickel personnel. Oh, and look out for Jackson scrambling against a Texans defense that missed a lot of tackles this season. Ravens -9.5.
Marks: Kansas City second-half UNDER 22.5. The Chiefs’ second-half under has hit in 16 of 18 games this season, with the team averaging only 15 points. In Bills home games, the second-half under has hit in eight of 10. I’m going to ride this trend.
Fulghum: Kansas City +3 (-120). Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 outright in his career as an underdog. This might be his first true road playoff game, but that doesn’t bother me at all. Having a full field goal head start on the scoreboard with the best playoff QB of this generation is a very comfortable wager to make.
Schatz: My play on this game is to play the UNDER. It’s not just that the Chiefs’ offense has been declining while their defense plays very well. It’s also that the Chiefs and Bills both play with a below-average pace, which means fewer points, and it’s going to be 18 degrees in Buffalo at kickoff, which also means fewer points.
Fulghum: I think what this Packers offense is showing is for real. Since Week 11, the Packers have the second-best offense in the NFL in EPA per play and yards per play behind only … the 49ers. I also believe the rhythm and momentum they built in the wild-card round will serve them well in this matchup. The San Francisco 49ers have been, and remain, my pick to win the Super Bowl. However, it would not surprise me at all if Green Bay keeps this game competitive or even pulls off the upset. I’m not willing to bet the Green Bay money line, but I’m definitely willing to wager on Green Bay +9.5 (-110).
Marks: I’d say Tampa Bay. The Bucs play better on the road than at home. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in his playoff career. The Rams averaged close to 8 yards per play against the Lions last week. Tampa coach Todd Bowles’ aggressive defense will make it a long day for Lions QB Jared Goff.
Walder: I’ll say Texans (+9.5). Since Week 16, Stroud ranks third in QBR, bolstered by a heck of a performance last week against the Browns. Now, Jackson does rank first in that same time period, to be fair. But Baltimore is a defense-first team, and as we saw with Cleveland last week, defense is no guarantee on a week-to-week basis. Houston could at least keep it close.
Marks: Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 rush yards. He is averaging 25 rushing yards this season. I anticipate this to be a close game, therefore expect Mahomes to run more. The Bills’ banged up defense will have a difficult time containing him.
Walder: Justin Madubuike UNDER 0.5 sacks (-115). He has burned me on this exact bet plenty of times year, but I’m sticking to my convictions. Madubuike has had an incredible season with 13.0 sacks, but his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle — below the 10% average at the position — suggests his sack rate is unsustainable. I price the under at -282, which is probably underrating his chances due to all the simulated pressure Baltimore draws up in its defensive scheme, which helps pass-rushers. But directionally I feel confident: Madubuike is overrated.
Fulghum: Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 90.5 receiving yards (-120). St. Brown gets a delicious matchup against a Tampa Bay pass funnel that he already cooked for 124 yards on 12 catches in Week 6. The Bucs have allowed 12 different receivers to go over this threshold this year. DeVonta Smith ran up 148 yards through the air last week. St. Brown is a model of consistency, having posted 90-plus yards in five straight games.
Moody: Mike Evans OVER 69.5 receiving yards. This season, he and Baker Mayfield have shown an undeniable rapport. Evans has great matchups against Lions cornerbacks Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor. During the regular season, he averaged 73.8 receiving yards. Even though Evans had only 48 receiving yards against the Eagles during wild-card weekend, he should surpass that number against a porous Lions secondary. Over the past three games, Detroit’s secondary has allowed some exceptional receiving performances against No. 1 wide receivers, including Puka Nacua (181), Justin Jefferson (192) and CeeDee Lamb (227). Evans has averaged 70.3 receiving yards in the postseason in his career.
Schatz: Rashee Rice UNDER 69.5 receiving yards. Rasul Douglas is supposed to be healthy enough to play, and he has helped shut down No. 1 receivers for the second half of the year. The Bills are seventh in DVOA and allow just 51 receiving yards per game against No. 1 receivers. I think Mahomes will have to look away from Rice and try to find some of his other receivers — and hope they can hold on to the ball.
Marks: Packers Team Total OVER 19.5 points. Jordan Love is on fire and just put up 50 on Dallas. The Packers are averaging 28 points, and the 49ers’ defense is overrated (28th in EPA and 22nd in success rate).
Walder: Nick Bolton UNDER 9.5 tackles + assists (-115). Last season, Bolton racked up 180 tackles, but he just hasn’t been hitting the same numbers this season. In fact, in nine games played, he went over this line only twice. I project just 7.8 tackles + assists for Bolton this weekend.
Fulghum: I don’t know if Houston will cover, but I am interested in the Ravens-Texans UNDER 43.5 (-110). I’m fairly confident Stroud is going to face a much more difficult test playing this Ravens defense on the road and in the cold elements. Baltimore’s defense is well rested, and it has already seen Houston’s offense once this season — albeit in Week 1. Although Houston is difficult to run on, the Ravens’ offense will certainly try. This seems like a game environment in which play volume might not be conducive to a lot of points.
Moody: Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 rushing yards. Patrick Mahomes will play his first road postseason game of his career against the Bills. Against a Buffalo defense that has several injured key players, Pacheco is in a great spot. Over the past six games, he has averaged 83.2 rushing yards per game. In the past few weeks, the Chiefs have relied heavily on Pacheco, and that trend should continue against the Bills on Sunday.
Moody: Jayden Reed OVER 3.5 receptions. Last week, Reed had zero receptions on three targets in the Packers’ commanding win over the Cowboys. Jordan Love had only 21 pass attempts against Dallas. Reed led the Packers in receptions (and receiving yards) during the regular season. He had four or more receptions in eight consecutive games prior to last week. Because the Packers are 9.5-point underdogs, they are likely to be playing from behind and will have to rely more on Love and the passing game. As the Packers look to counter the 49ers’ ferocious pass rush, Reed should be busy against the 49ers in the quick passing game. San Francisco finished 18th in sack percentage, which indicates opposing quarterbacks are trying to get the ball out as quickly as possible.
Moody: George Kittle OVER 52.5 receiving yards. Kittle has averaged 80.4 receiving yards per game in his past 10 games. During the regular season, the Packers have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (54). Green Bay also gave up 93 receiving yards to Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson last week. Kittle has also averaged 67.0 receiving yards per game at home in the regular season and playoffs so far in his career. Against the Packers, Brock Purdy should target him early and often.
Schatz: Justin Watson OVER 18.5 receiving yards. This is a corollary to the Rashee Rice prop listed above, and they would probably go well together in a parlay. If Rice isn’t open, who does Patrick Mahomes trust to actually catch the ball? Other than Travis Kelce, the answer is probably Watson. Plus, he’s good on deep passes, and the Bills rank 23rd in DVOA on deep passes (16 or more air yards).